Now and Busting: Cold change for NZ

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 19/04/2005 01:09

Latest models (not ngps) are indicating Sunday to have rain in the North, possibly heavy about Whangarei to Hick's Bay in the east then followed by strong gusty Southeasterlies on Monday...

Also, freezing levels are set to drop in the far south to 800m on Sunday morning as S to SE winds kick in there. Snow likely above 800m then...

Comments anyone?

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 19/04/2005 08:17

Foggy, a freezing level of 800m would bring snow down to atleast 500m however it looks like that very cold air will be out to the East of the SouthIsland.

Charts suggest a Trough will cross NZ at the weekend followed by Southerlies, some showers or rain to most but I dont think we will see much in Hamilton or Auckland.
The big dry Continues up here.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 19/04/2005 08:26

Latest long range models vary in what they expect to happen - some are going for cyclogenesis on the southerly (big low forming to west of central NZ), while others just predict a straight southerly followed by a high. Anyway, I'll be up north from today for about a week or more, so I won't experience the coldest weather.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 19/04/2005 10:39

Yes, there is a lot of variation in the long range charts.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 19/04/2005 13:37

Yes we'll have to wait and see, but i'm 70% sure these events will happen.
F/levels set to drop to 1100m over the Central North Island bringing snow there Sunday night.

Sunday night to Monday still looks pretty windy over the N island with the S to SE change.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 19/04/2005 13:59

Metservice dont seem to have your confidence foggy

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 19/04/2005 14:12

From the Southland 10day forecast, by MS

Sat, 23 Apr
Brief rain with gusty westerlies. Then a change to southwesterlies, possibly gale in coastal places, bringing showers. Becoming cold, with some hail. Snow later on the ranges.

Now it looks as if there wont be as much rain for the north as I first said.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 19/04/2005 21:26

Saturday could be good chance for TS over Canty and Marlborough as that cold southerly moves through. Pre frontal TS maybe just as it turns SW?.
I see Tony has it forecast for heavy thundery rain on Fencepost fingers crossed as this is transition time now from Autumn-Winter.

Cheers
Jason

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 19/04/2005 23:30

03 Stormchaser wrote:Metservice dont seem to have your confidence foggy

Your Website don't work 03

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 19/04/2005 23:33

Jasestrm wrote:Saturday could be good chance for TS over Canty and Marlborough as that cold southerly moves through. Pre frontal TS maybe just as it turns SW?.
I see Tony has it forecast for heavy thundery rain on Fencepost fingers crossed as this is transition time now from Autumn-Winter.
Cheers
Jason

I don't think so Jason.

Thunderstorms don't work this time of year but mind you we got a bit of rain when the last anticyclone passed over

JohnGaul
NZTS

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 19/04/2005 23:49

yeh I wasn't overly confident there John that TS would happen it just felt gud to see thunder in a forecast but then again who knows we do gt sum gud cold outbreaks but unfortunatly very rarly do we gt TS folling them.
I guess it's out of TS season and into looking forward to this years snowfall hopefully

.
Cheers
JASON

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 20/04/2005 05:19

That will be "normal" pack in for the long weekend then Tuesday clear up

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 20/04/2005 07:17

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
03 Stormchaser wrote:Metservice dont seem to have your confidence foggy
Your Website don't work 03

JohnGaul
NZTS

You may just wat too copy paste it,
seems too only work with mozilla firefox

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 20/04/2005 18:50

03 Stormchaser wrote:
Your Website don't work 03

JohnGaul
NZTS

You may just wat too copy paste it,
seems too only work with mozilla firefox[/quote]

That's nice

I wouldn't have a clue what you are talking about

JohnGaul
NZTS

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Thu 21/04/2005 04:59

Just had a really nice hail downpour, up to 5mm. Good to hear that sound again!! To late to capture all that sound on video though, bugger!!

And there's been some lightning out there along the east coast of the South Island but probably didn't make it up to here althought there's been some strikes off B'sP.

Oh well, back to bed. This is the Cb that did it:

http://www.templeton.gen.nz/satellite/0 ... precip.jpg

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 21/04/2005 05:53

Looks like boring Gales to dominate for the long weekend for us to enjoy

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Thu 21/04/2005 06:52

Yes Aaron woke up to, very heavy rain and small hail.

The neighbour caught me leaning out my upstairs window at around 6ish this mornig trying to catch some hail, I think he must think im going off the rails or something

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Thu 21/04/2005 06:54

Rain Radar shows a band of heavy rain about to hit AK

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Thu 21/04/2005 10:20

03 Stormchaser wrote:Rain Radar shows a band of heavy rain about to hit AK

Another beautiful day down here in Omarama, although it's a little chilly.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Thu 21/04/2005 10:24

The neighbour caught me leaning out my upstairs window at around 6ish this mornig trying to catch some hail, I think he must think im going off the rails or something

haha. That would've looked funny from his point of view.

Nice and sunny here in Chch now with a light N interestingly enough. There's an extra SW burst in the form of a trough coming up the east coast due around lunch, I wounder if it will do anything?? I think it may be a bit too far offshore though so the SW trough might not come through but then again....

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 21/04/2005 11:46

Fine here now after a few early showers and starting to warm , currently 18C.

No permafrost here thankfully.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Thu 21/04/2005 12:31

That SW has just come through and looks like it'll do nothing. Some nice Cu clouds just offshore formed but didn't get anywhere. NE wasn't there and not enough surface moisture. The light N was very light and went NW and moisture dropped off before the SW came through. Perhaps even if there was a NE nothing would've happened as the gut's of it looked to be offshore more. You can see a nice isolated Cb off Bank's Peninsula from the 9:51am sat image, not sure if it has something to do with that SW trough? Didn't do anything anyway....

http://satellite.landcareresearch.co.nz ... d21045.jpg

Looking foward to Saturday and hopefully something will happen. We've had a few changes now but there's always NW before the change so nothing that interesting happens, oh well.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Thu 21/04/2005 12:50

Gusty, squally showers today but mild.

Here's the cold change coming, late Saturday through to late Monday it should persist. Highs of 9c for Christchurch, 11c for Wellington, 13c Napier, 15c for Auckland and Waikato.. and dustings of snow for the Ruapehu etc likely on Sunday..

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Thu 21/04/2005 15:34

Branches are down here

... gusts to 70km/h, average only upto 35km/h, just shows how the Hamilton region isn't used to wind at all

Weather fine and sunny, 17c...

To note Waiouru is on 4c atm!

Must've just had a hailshower or something

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 21/04/2005 16:16

SW ROSE AFTER HORIZONTAL RAIN THIS MORNING TO GALEFORCE