very active trough

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Wed 25/05/2005 13:59

The trough crossing the tasman at the moment is looking extremely lightning active.. both nz lightning trackers are recording lots of action, you can see the correlated strikes from both detectors, which gives quite good locational accuracy a long way out, here : http://www.templeton.gen.nz/weather/SVcorrelated.html

I know the charts are showing some instability for Friday, Sunday how much do you think we may get?

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Wed 25/05/2005 19:30

There is a bit of warmer water in the middle of the Tasman, so the system could be feeding off that I wonder?

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html

Cheers,

G

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Wed 25/05/2005 21:08

yes thats it I would say... those are the areas it's most active in

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 25/05/2005 23:38

Yes Judging from ECMWF a very active from the WE into next next week for NZ

Lots of thunderstorms etc for many areas, mainly in western areas
JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 26/05/2005 05:51

How surprised are we

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Yes Judging from ECMWF a very active from the WE into next next week for NZ
Lots of thunderstorms etc for many areas, mainly in western areas
JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 26/05/2005 17:02

Weather now has become the shitty stuff that we are all accustomed to in winter where it rains every single day now

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 26/05/2005 22:40

Looks to be alot of Cb development with that Trough/Front out to our NW this Evening.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 27/05/2005 10:26

Issued at: 10:08 am 27 May 2005 NZST

A frontal band with heavy northeasterly rain from embedded thunderstorms is currently crossing the Bay of Plenty. This feature should clear the eastern Bay of Plenty by late afternoon with winds turning more northwesterly behind it.Because the band is quite mobile,rainfall intensities should lie in the range of 10-25mm/hr and be accompanied by isolated hail in the 5 to 15mm range and wind gusts reaching 90km/h in the heaviest storms.

During the afternoon and evening there is a high risk of several more bands of thunderstorms moving over Northland and Auckland. These storms will also be moving quite quickly and deliver rainfall rates of 5 to 10mm/h with some small hail.

Further south from Waikato to the central plateau and southwest to Taranaki there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening as an upper trough moves over the area.

-MetService

Periods of moderate rain this morning, light rain now with heavy skies.
12c with NE slowly picking up. 4mm in the one hour to 9am in Tauranga, not 'heavy' criteria yet

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Fri 27/05/2005 14:06

Michael wrote:Weather now has become the shitty stuff that we are all accustomed to in winter where it rains every single day now

This may be warm enough, dry enough and sunny enough even for you.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/20050 ... 0505.shtml

GreggWard · Unread post by **GreggWard** » Fri 27/05/2005 23:25

Check out what the Metservice are forcasting for the West Coast tomorrow afternoon:

Valid to: 12:00 am 29 May 2005 NZST
Issued at: 10:24 am 27 May 2005 NZST

Yet another frontal system is expected to spread over norther Fiordland and Westland Saturday afternoon and evening. This feature is supported by some very strong weather dynamics. Conditions are forecast to be conducive to embedded severe thunderstorms forming along the front, and these may support damaging tornadoes, especially in coastal areas. Heavy rain up to 25mm/hr and strong wind gusts are also likely.

Elswehere, no thunderstorms or significant convection is expected.
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GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Sat 28/05/2005 09:53

Made the lowest pressure for me so far this year as the trough crossed over: 996mb. Currently sitting on 1005, though the weak front can't be very far away now. Will be interesting to see if the big system from the south will do - it will also bring quite low pressures.

Cheers,

G

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 28/05/2005 09:56

LOUDEST sound of thunder this year just woke me up on my sleep-in day!!!

Heavy shower at present, 13c, light northerly.

Ricky's tracker is suggesting Taranaki was hit first by it over an hour ago, and now King Country through to the Waikato is being effected by it.

It probably WILL reach Auckland...

GraemeWi, I just saw your post, it's NOT weak after that shower!!!!

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 28/05/2005 10:09

This looks busy!

Damaging tornadoes???

I bet Aaron etc would be chasing today...

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Sat 28/05/2005 11:11

Foggy Hamilton wrote:It probably WILL reach Auckland...
GraemeWi, I just saw your post, it's NOT weak after that shower!!!!

It's arriving now - I can see some pretty beefy cbs through the occasional gap in the clouds.

Cheers,

G

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 28/05/2005 11:21

Things have turned very dark again.

7.8mm in the hour to 10am here.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 28/05/2005 11:31

Winds are getting close to GaleForce at times now and Rain

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 28/05/2005 11:45

Check out the latest MetService Thunderstorm outlook, they use capitals

High risks for tomorrow morning in the west

http://metservice.com/default/index.php ... key=212868

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 28/05/2005 11:54

SOUTHWESTERLIES REACHED GALE FORCE NOW WITH UPWAYS BLOWING RAIN

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 28/05/2005 12:30

Some nice Cb clouds in Ak skies today. Squally heavy showers, have not not heard Thunder yet.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 28/05/2005 12:38

Strong shower development SW of Auckland this morning.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 28/05/2005 12:47

Cb over West AK

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Sun 29/05/2005 10:46

I can see Cb s on the frontal line approaching auckland now

awoke to a fine warm morning, 17C DP 13C, but doent look like it will last much longer! A very defined squall line showing on the rain radar and *lots* of lightning Taranaki way and out to sea on the front and behind it...

out to see if i can get some pics, but probably a bit late now!

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sun 29/05/2005 11:44

Horrible rain again

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Sun 29/05/2005 19:25

A little sheet lightning out east to sea tonite

Today we started with a beauty clear day, which unfortunately soon changed with occasional heavy showers, a little wind, and ultimately became quite a cool to cold showery day here in Tauranga.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 30/05/2005 00:17

tgsnoopy wrote:A little sheet lightning out east to sea tonite

Today we started with a beauty clear day, which unfortunately soon changed with occasional heavy showers, a little wind, and ultimately became quite a cool to cold showery day here in Tauranga.

Quite the same here, but squally NW in the morning.

Thunder now.