Right. As we have a Blocking High just to the SE of Otago, now we need is an "unblocking trough", if there is such a thing, to restore the movement of weather systems west to east over the country.
Looks as though the trough approaching from the west this WE, is more of an unblocking trough, unblocking the blocking high than the deep depression to the NE of us although shaving the head of it
and shoving it out of the way or weakoning it.
The high has been the most intense for a while registering 1038hPa at noon today (June 14th)
It does look like the big high will be gradually pushed away to the east this weekend. Interestingly, there appears to be a strong and very cold southwesterly flow to the east of this big high. No land is affected, but if NZ was hypothetically located much further to the east, and under this flow, you'd probably expect freezing gales and sea-level snow in the lower South Island.
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Unread postby Michael »
Thats the same low that gave us a fortnight of this weather It is now 1/2 to South America
tich wrote:It does look like the big high will be gradually pushed away to the east this weekend. Interestingly, there appears to be a strong and very cold southwesterly flow to the east of this big high. No land is affected, but if NZ was hypothetically located much further to the east, and under this flow, you'd probably expect freezing gales and sea-level snow in the lower South Island.
Looks as though this "Unblocking Trough" is moving onto us from about Friday, displacing the jolly ridge from the east, and should give us a bout of unseasonably mild weather for a while
Roll on the next anticyclone
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Looks as though this "Unblocking Trough" is moving onto us from about Friday, displacing the jolly ridge from the east, and should give us a bout of unseasonably mild weather for a while
Roll on the next anticyclone
JohnGaul
NZAAA
Another winterless winter in the south...hey, I think I've been around Michael too long!
yay the blocking high is finally going sick of the cold south easterly winds on its northeren flank looks like this new trough is gonna warm things up a bit with warm northerly winds ahead of it
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Unread postby Michael »
No I'm defitnitley not sick of the SE conditions but ultimately the trough will bring SW Gales and Rain back which I am really sick of
squid wrote:yay the blocking high is finally going sick of the cold south easterly winds on its northeren flank looks like this new trough is gonna warm things up a bit with warm northerly winds ahead of it
No I'm defitnitley not sick of the SE conditions but ultimately the trough will bring SW Gales and Rain back which I am really sick of squid wrote:
yay the blocking high is finally going sick of the cold south easterly winds on its northeren flank looks like this new trough is gonna warm things up a bit with warm northerly winds ahead of it
The Coromandel Peninsula should shelter Auckland from east or southeast flows, but not Northland (at least north of about Bream Bay in a southeasterly). Wherabouts in Northland are you Squid?
Was in Taupo the last two days, cloudy with gusty southeasterlies yesterday. Cloudy with light winds today, but bright, warm and sunny further south about Tongariro NP and the Kaimanawas where we were today.
Looks as though this trough is going to become shallow and scattered so not much weather is to be expected except for tuesday when a bit of a movement should pass over the country.
Another anticyclone with blocking ingredients should move into the Australian bight beyond this 'unblocking trough'
If it stalls we should get some cold/colder weather next week???
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Unread postby Michael »
I'm sure it will naturally deepen as it passes slowly from the taman to the Chathams with many fronts and another 2 week SW flow behind it
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Looks as though this trough is going to become shallow and scattered so not much weather is to be expected except for tuesday when a bit of a movement should pass over the country.
Another anticyclone with blocking ingredients should move into the Australian bight beyond this 'unblocking trough'
If it stalls we should get some cold/colder weather next week???
Widespread persistent rain around the greater region today, easing to showers here and Auckland tonight.
But becoming heavy for Eastern and inland Bay of Plenty down to about Rotorua or south Waikato.
There looks to be some suggestion within the models of a SW flick going up the coast here tomorrow, not a big front or anything but it could be enough to trigger something. With the upper level support (i.e cold air moving across) and these temps like were having today (16 degress with 10 degree dewpoints) there could be something tomorrow?
There definately won't be any NW ahead of any change so it could work. Should be sunny to with scattered high cloud at most so that bodes well for some form of heating. I'm thinking we probably won't get higher temps than today even with sunny skies but if we get close within a degree or two or reach today's high it could look good...
tottot are on 50 tomorrow over us but I'm not sure if it applies much this time of year? I guess it's good?
North Island looks slightly better though tomorrow afternoon.
Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:There looks to be some suggestion within the models of a SW flick going up the coast here tomorrow, not a big front or anything but it could be enough to trigger something. With the upper level support (i.e cold air moving across) and these temps like were having today (16 degress with 10 degree dewpoints) there could be something tomorrow?
There definately won't be any NW ahead of any change so it could work. Should be sunny to with scattered high cloud at most so that bodes well for some form of heating. I'm thinking we probably won't get higher temps than today even with sunny skies but if we get close within a degree or two or reach today's high it could look good...
tottot are on 50 tomorrow over us but I'm not sure if it applies much this time of year? I guess it's good?
North Island looks slightly better though tomorrow afternoon.
We'll wait and see!
Cheers
I'm thinking that way too Aaron, but it is winter
Barometer dropping a bit too??????
There looks to be some suggestion within the models of a SW flick going up the coast here tomorrow, not a big front or anything but it could be enough to trigger something. With the upper level support (i.e cold air moving across) and these temps like were having today (16 degress with 10 degree dewpoints) there could be something tomorrow?
Nothing should happen according MetService. The southwest change behind the front looks like being a weak and dry one for Canterbury, with no more than a cooler wind change and a bit of cloud for Banks Peninsula. But anything can happen even with a 'weak' southwesterly - unforecast rain, hail and/or thunder events have hit us before.
I was thinking the exact same thing earlier when talking to 03Storm, it is winter so that counts against things. Just not the right season etc but being a storm enthusiast I hope something happens!
Steady rain became sort of heavy for a time around 5pm but cleared to cloudy skies quickly. 8pm unexpected fog rolled into most areas but seems quite local in patches now. 15c max, 16mm today with northeast breezes.
Weather certainly looks warm from now until Friday atleast.
Maximums between 15 and 18c expected
Weather certainly looks warm from now until Friday atleast.
Maximums between 15 and 18c expected
Doesn't feel like winter today. Overnight low was 12C. Fine morning, should get quite mild today. Not untypical of June though. For Auckland atleast, winter doesn't really hit us untill July.
Atleast this weeks weather looks a bit more interesting than last week with a significant trough expected. Ski fields should get some snow out of it too, although warmer air may keep the freezing levels up over the Ruapehu region.
although shaving the head of it 
