Unstable Week Ahead

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Fri 09/12/2005 08:06

Looks like next week will be quite unstable over the period Tuesday-Wednesday for Canturbury anyway. Good high Cape, Li's etc

As long as the models dont change to much we should be for some good storms.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 09/12/2005 10:31

Yes, looking very humid all of next week with bands of heavy rain Saturday night, Monday morning and evening, Wednesday night again.

Thundery falls likey up here

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 09/12/2005 12:37

Should be an interesting week ahead thunderwise

I see even press mention muggy humid days in the weather ahead.
Unstable skies out here today mite become interesting this afternoon maybe few claps thunder here's hoping.
Upper band of higher cloud just gone through wiht some anvil type mamatus forms and a few drops of rain although looks to be something west to SW again.
Gone down to 15C here now went up to 18C for a time during a nice sunny interval more sun to reapear soon which will be good for ground heating southerly only breezy but cool.
Cheers
Jason.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 09/12/2005 13:59

farmers sure need the rain around these parts, bring it on!
the trough line in the tasman is getting slowly closer to the NI now and managing to stay intact...

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 09/12/2005 16:52

Looks like next week will be quite unstable over the period Tuesday-Wednesday for Canturbury anyway. Good high Cape, Li's etc

Southland, inland Otago, inland Canterbury. Likely to see a lot of low cloud and possibly drizzle/warm advective fog along the coast.

Parts of inland NI should see some thunderstorms as well.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 09/12/2005 20:45

Unusually humid for Chch over the last few days (reminds me of February this year), even with yesterday's northwester. But fresh cooler southerly made a change this morning. However, even this southerly has become pretty mild for the wind direction, especially compared to the frequent cold southerlies and southwesterlies of this time last year.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 09/12/2005 22:57

24oc here today with 17.5oC DP
summer is started
still 19oC now

some very light drizzle this evening

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 09/12/2005 23:12

Yup it feels like February for sure!

I LOVE the sticky forecast..!!
Sat... Rain
Sun... Rain
Mon... Heavy showers and thunderstorms
Tue... Rain
Wed... Showers, some heavy and thundery
Thur... Rain
Northerly-quarter winds all round.

GFS suggesting 80% of our time until Thurs, will mean the LI's should remain below zero and very decent CAPE figures holding out from Monday morning 'til Thursday.
500mb temps dropping off as the week goes on.

Still 19.7c

Manukau heads obs · Sat 10/12/2005 06:30

the showers are missing us here and running down the coast into raglan/kawhia (typical)

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sat 10/12/2005 10:09

Thunderstorms reported inland from Timaru this morning.

GreggWard · Unread post by **GreggWard** » Sat 10/12/2005 10:46

Manukau heads observer wrote:the showers are missing us here and running down the coast into raglan/kawhia (typical)

Brian,

I'm sure you are going to be in for some storms early afternoon.

Gregg

Manukau heads obs · Sat 10/12/2005 11:54

DP been up to nearly 19oC at one point

getting brief heavy showers now at times....

interesting forecast for tomorrow.....bring it on!

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Sat 10/12/2005 12:19

Looks like Northland will cop it tomorrow...

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 10/12/2005 12:46

Fresh strikes being picked up in the southern Waikato basin area, and toward Tauranga. 22c, dewpoint 18c.

I see Whenuapai has already reached 25c

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 10/12/2005 13:04

Low cloud clearing at times is allowing a view of that shower line out to the west.

photo, Manakau Heads with T Cu and Cb out to Sea. Cb must be well out as they dont show up on Radar.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 10/12/2005 14:08

I see dp at the airport now 19C with temp25C. Grey Lynn 25C/dp18C.

Some t/cu about Auckland now with isolated showers. The midday NZWP sounding suggests local cb's/thunderstorms should develop with the surface heating.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 10/12/2005 14:22

Quite a lot of cloud cover for that but its still rather humid.Looks as though general Rain will be in tonight or tomorrow morning

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 10/12/2005 14:30

A humid 21C here with light NE and some Small CU becoming visable inland.
I see inland south Canterbury few isolated heavy showers on radar could be storms there later.

This is going to be a very unstable week especailly for NI and top of the SI.
Cheers
Jason.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 10/12/2005 14:46

alot of cloud has kept out temperatures not as high (23oC here)
i see big CB's moving from northland into the hauraki gulf now!

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 10/12/2005 15:06

I can see those cb's to the north from here. Also cb to far SE. Fine over Auckland with 27C now at Grey Lynn.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 10/12/2005 15:51

Lots of strikes now. eastern Waikato/western Bay of Plenty

23c, dewpoint 19c with T/Cu, and Cb's visible, westerly breeze, few heavy showers

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 10/12/2005 15:57

Alot happening here 23C now muggy an amazing CB to my NE before about Kaiakoura way id say I could just watch it brewing up thats how quickly it went up cant see it now.
Also nice Towering inland-south canty amongst all this redeveloping occasional lower cloud.
Cheers
Jason.

Zanman · Unread post by **Zanman** » Sat 10/12/2005 15:59

Getting very noisy here at the moment

Photos taken a few minutes ago.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 10/12/2005 16:18

Nice typical roll cloud gust front cloud there Zanman

Just a few pics of whats happening here in SI but good to see some storms going off in NI today.
Cheers
Jason.

Zanman · Unread post by **Zanman** » Sat 10/12/2005 16:26

We are getting a nice steady rain from that now, looks like it will be quite short lived though.

A lot of lightning activity in our area though. Even more tracking up north through the ranges.