Monsoonal rains settling down now to start drenching New Caledonia from Thursday night ---> Sunday morning bringing up to around 650mm in the north/east of the island..
The ECMWF model strongly hinting that this weakening tropical system will bear down onto or around eastern Northland by Wednesday morning. NGP shows similar but disbands the heaviest rain and sends it far southeast past NZ. JMA and MM5 models shows little, if any development of this event. But the next few ECMWF model runs will be very interesting as the last few were pointing to this taking place. GFS has pulled out within the last 6 hours, so it may be back in.. as this is so often the case.
It will be certainly something to be worth watching as this could be the first major low for the North Island for '06.
Risks are minimal that it will turn into a cyclone
Cheers
Last edited by Willoughby on Fri 20/01/2006 15:44, edited 1 time in total.
Yes it's looking like a Low could move down from the North Next week.
Models seem to struggle with Low development to our North at this time of the year so long range charts become very unreliable.
Likely to be some afternoon convective showers around from Friday, will be mostly over high ground and inland.
Yes! Starting to brew up nicely around New Caledonia/Vanuatu now with some very decent divergance developing in the higher atmosphere up there. Weak jetstream sprawning above desert QLD too in the next few coming days!
NGP still going for the same as what I said before (disbanding).. GFS hinting at a strengthening humid NE flow over the NI by Wednesday with heavy rain making Northland landfall by Tuesday evening. hmmmmmm.. Then widespread heavy rain for the North Island.. however severe flood watch may be called in for BoP.. and Nelson by Thursday
Confidence levels are rising considerably going by the last 4 ECMWF model runs.. MetService have just recognised it and they seem quite conservative on the event..
gfs on weatherzone still going for one hell of a storm for the NI from 96 hrs onwards check it out for yourselves man we r in for it if this model is right how reliable is this one??
squid wrote:gfs on weatherzone still going for one hell of a storm for the NI from 96 hrs onwards check it out for yourselves man we r in for it if this model is right how reliable is this one??
Remember those charts are resoluted at 2mb isopleths instead of the standard 4.. so they always look more severe!
ECMWF drifting it east slightly.. but has another deepening low develop around Rockhampton
Valid: Sun 22 Jan to Wed 25 Jan
Issued: Fri 20 January 2006 at 01:56 pm
A front should cross Fiordland overnight Saturday to Sunday, bringing a brief period of heavy rain. There is low confidence that rainfall will accumulate to warning levels.
On Tuesday, a deep low may develop to the north of the country then move southeast over Northland and Auckland on Wednesday. Details of the position and movement of this low are uncertain at the moment but there is a low chance that it may bring a period of severe gales to many parts of the North Island and Marlborough on Tuesday or Wednesday with rainfall reaching warning levels over Northland and Auckland as well as eastern areas from Coromandel Peninsula down to the Kaikoura Coast.
This low has the potential to develop into a major storm and people are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts.
Should starting turning humid in the north from Monday.
The high dewpoint air is likely to produce unstable conditions over the upper NI from about tuesday.
At this stage it looks like the Low will pass just east of the NorthIsland with heavy rain and strong winds to exposed Eastern area's but the charts are very unreliable .
If the ECMWF proves right.. then we should take a direct hit.. with the SLP in Northland dropping to aound 985mb by Wednesday. It even has the depression drifing back northwards by Friday!? But I can't see that happening.. but that would certainly support the risks of convective afternoon thunderstorms later .
I'm going with GFS on this one.. which will give very heavy rain for Coromandel/Eastland/Hawke's Bay and southwesterly gales for Auckland northwards and clearing rain. Then it may get quite cold with a cold SSW flow embracing NZ
You guys get all the luck,here I am sweating it out in the tropics under clear skies and scorching temperatures in what is supposed to be the wet season.Ahh well......enjoy.
Looks like this system will not be as severe as earlier predicted (that's global warming for yer??? )
No matter what, it'll still be boring down here.
Here's to the drizzle? if any ...whatever ...I dunno
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Looks like this system will not be as severe as earlier predicted (that's global warming for yer??? ) JohnGaul
NZTS
Looking better than ever!
Looking at 110mm+ now for the Waikato/Auckland regions now, excluding Coromandel.. they can expect flooding in some areas, as can Auckland from Thursday. GFS has let the Hawke's/Eastland bays regions off a wee bit. Not looking good at all for the BoP.. more severe flooding im thinking.. up to 200mm there.
Becoming very sticky for AK.. looking at lows of 21-22c during the night from Wednesday.. and temps creeping to 28c with dewpoints of around 21c Thunderstorms about for sure
As a side note.. there WONT be any thunderstorms here today
Starting to brew up nicely around New Caledonia/Vanuatu now with some very decent divergance developing in the higher atmosphere up there. Weak jetstream sprawning above desert QLD too in the next few coming days! 
)
