Deepening NE'ly Low 22nd - 27th

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 19/04/2006 21:33

Active front on the way this Sunday with likely thunderstorms somewhere over the upper NI, especially towards evening. Auckland hot with a sticky 25c possible that day. Bay of Plenty right out to Hick's Bay could be right in the firing line for heavy rain.

At the moment there just seems to be some disagreement between the models in regard to where this other low up north will bear down onto.. will probably just slide SE of here. Long, heavy persistant falls on the way for NE Fiordland/SW Westland.

Then soon some heavy rain or showers on the way for Eastern South Island/Wellington regions as the new ridge sets itself in and depression heads away.

Becoming very cold the next few days over SE Australia... Thickness should lower to 5400 (GFS) over Invercargill by Tuesday.. though personally i'd like to see the ECMWF scenario become fruition.. which could see freezing levels over Southland drop to 700m.
Looking further ahead.. may see rainy easterlies again for the NI.

Any thoughts?

edit, adjustments to title

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Wed 19/04/2006 22:00

And why do you want to see the freezing level over Southland drop Foggy?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 19/04/2006 22:06

Looks cold for here around ANZAC Day...brrrrrrrr

JohnGaul
NZTS

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 19/04/2006 22:06

Flutterbye wrote:And why do you want to see the freezing level over Southland drop Foggy?

Get those ski fields off to a good start of course!

(Well more relevant for Central Otago)

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Wed 19/04/2006 22:12

Don't ski myself, (more time on my butt than my feet the last time I tried), but I hope it is a better season for those who can.

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Wed 19/04/2006 22:25

Foggy Hamilton wrote:
Flutterbye wrote:And why do you want to see the freezing level over Southland drop Foggy?
Get those ski fields off to a good start of course! (Well more relevant for Central Otago)

Nnnnnnnooooooo! This soft Aucklander is dragging his bike to the South Island (and especially Otago) on April 29 for 3 weeks of road tripping MTB goodness. Snow hasn't even figured in my plans... except maybe when I bike up the Nevis road

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 19/04/2006 22:33

GraemeWi wrote:

Nnnnnnnooooooo! This soft Aucklander is dragging his bike to the South Island (and especially Otago) on April 29 for 3 weeks of road tripping MTB goodness. Snow hasn't even figured in my plans... except maybe when I bike up the Nevis road

Do the Central Otago rail trail. lots of history and fun

JohnGaul
NZTS

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Wed 19/04/2006 22:37

Oh no - that Nevis Road can be ghastly in the cold,done it on the back of a Triumph motorbike years ago - never been so cold in my life.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 19/04/2006 22:42

Flutterbye wrote:Oh no - that Nevis Road can be ghastly
done it on the back of a Triumph motorbike years ago - never been so cold in my life.

.should of done it on the back of a Indian, in true Southland style

JohnGaul
NZTS

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Wed 19/04/2006 22:45

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
Flutterbye wrote:Oh no - that Nevis Road can be ghastly
done it on the back of a Triumph motorbike years ago - never been so cold in my life.
.should of done it on the back of a Indian, in true Southland style

JohnGaul
NZTS

Wouldn't have been as comfortable as the Bonneville seat

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Wed 19/04/2006 23:05

Friends I met up with over Easter have a close connection to Burt Munro's family...

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 20/04/2006 09:19

Just looking at the latest ECMRF, that low will pass just to the east of the country. So may only be Gisborne that gets the heavy rain.

Do the Central Otago rail trail

Might do that myself next summer.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 20/04/2006 09:32

our neighbours did that trail recently, real good they sais
relatvely easily (as its a railway slope inclines only!), but long distances

will be interesting what pans out with this next low system

lots of fog here this morning....means rain in 3 days going by the old wives
tales!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 20/04/2006 09:43

Just looking at the latest ECMRF, that low will pass just to the east of the country.

With another Low forming just west of the country by mid week.

There's a lot of variability in the charts at the moment so we will have to wait two or three days to get a good idea of whats on the way for next week.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Thu 20/04/2006 12:22

More perfect weather here in North Otago. Not a cloud, not a breeze, very warm. It's been like this for days. Now would be a good time for biking! Not such a good time for skiing...but then most skiiers are only in it for the image, so I guess snow's not that important to them.

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Thu 20/04/2006 12:30

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Do the Central Otago rail trail. lots of history and fun

Yip I've set aside a couple of days to section ride it (the bits I like!) Clyde through Wendleburn...

Cheers,

G

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Thu 20/04/2006 12:31

Stunning in In,gill at the moment, blue skies with a very warm gusty northerly - I have a current reading of 22.7 - looking cooler for next week though.

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Thu 20/04/2006 15:29

thunderous front in the tazzie is going nuts at the mo.

and this should be the front lining us up from what i gather

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Thu 20/04/2006 16:55

Flutterbye wrote:Stunning in In,gill at the moment, blue skies with a very warm gusty northerly - I have a current reading of 22.7 - looking cooler for next week though.

`Tis good to be a Mainlander!

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Thu 20/04/2006 17:17

Gary Roberts wrote:
Flutterbye wrote:Stunning in In,gill at the moment, blue skies with a very warm gusty northerly - I have a current reading of 22.7 - looking cooler for next week though.
`Tis good to be a Mainlander!

Aye. We've had a decent run - might make the winter feel shorter

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 20/04/2006 20:52

Westland, Fiordland and the Alps look to be hit by heavy rain in the next few days - good for the hydro lakes I guess. As for the cold snap forecast for next week, the models seem to vary alot, but some almost look like delivering a repeat of the southerly blast of Anzac Weekend last year.

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Thu 20/04/2006 21:19

tich wrote:Westland, Fiordland and the Alps look to be hit by heavy rain in the next few days - good for the hydro lakes I guess. As for the cold snap forecast for next week, the models seem to vary alot, but some almost look like delivering a repeat of the southerly blast of Anzac Weekend last year.

I just looked up this info on the weather last Anzac day:

'Major thunderstorms affected southern and eastern regions during the night of 23/24 and evening of 24 April, with lightning, wind squalls, and large hail stones, followed by wintry conditions.'

I have to say that I can't remember this

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Thu 20/04/2006 21:22

Flutterbye wrote:
tich wrote:Westland, Fiordland and the Alps look to be hit by heavy rain in the next few days - good for the hydro lakes I guess. As for the cold snap forecast for next week, the models seem to vary alot, but some almost look like delivering a repeat of the southerly blast of Anzac Weekend last year.
I just looked up this info on the weather last Anzac day:

'Major thunderstorms affected southern and eastern regions during the night of 23/24 and evening of 24 April, with lightning, wind squalls, and large hail stones, followed by wintry conditions.'

I have to say that I can't remember this

I can! http://03stormchaser.com/April_23_2005.html

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Thu 20/04/2006 21:27

Great stuff - thanks for that 03 Stormchaser

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 20/04/2006 21:31

Flutterbye wrote:
I have to say that I can't remember this

Yes, the famous St George's Day storm that hit Chch from 11:30pm at night.
One of my best night lightning videos ever.
Will there be a repeat

not on St George's Day tho'
JohnGaul
NZTS