Upcoming Winter in Canterbury 2007

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Thu 22/03/2007 16:57

Well winter is about three months out, and El Nino is dead according to the metservice people. So we will be in a neutral or El Nina weather pattern.

My question is a bit long range. But what are the changes of some good snow in Canterbury this winter. Will it be like the last few years with two or three decent falls or will we be starved of the white stuff.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 22/03/2007 18:30

Hi gopolks.
El nino has ended so perhaps it's fair to say this winter will be different to the last ?.
Might be a mild wet winter on the way if La nina develops but that could be good High Country snow in Canterbury.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 22/03/2007 18:34

Very good question there gopolks.

Like spwill I think the odds are that we will get a mild winter but it only takes one cold outbreak for that 1 in 100 year snow fall event.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Thu 22/03/2007 22:12

HMMM well i don't know much about el nina or that kinda stuff

but i am hoping for a cold winter with lots of snow!
I love it, And at a guess if we get a warmer wetter winter then last year that would be a good chance for warm advective snow?

dogmelon · Unread post by **dogmelon** » Fri 23/03/2007 15:15

The winter weather can be as crappy as it likes as long as next summer is nice.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sun 25/03/2007 10:30

I think worst case scenario would be stuck under a strong southerly flow with a very deep low in the southern ocean firing southerly gales up from the ice caps for atleast 3 days but of corse off and on.
Would that be possible i am sure it well could be especially with the way our weather is changing today.
I think this winter like others could be warmer but that is not always the best thing with the chances for heat convective snow especailly inland but also improves the chances for perhaps a higher count of hailstorms and thunderstorms across the country.
My Birthday today turned 20

$\:D/$ .
Cheers
Jason.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 25/03/2007 15:23

Happy birthday Jason

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sun 25/03/2007 19:35

Happy birthday too - though the thunder god wouldn't have have given you any presents today.

Winter 2007? My guess is that it'll mild, cold, wet and dry - ie weather will vary greatly throughout the season. (eg a cold month, followed by a milder than normal month)

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 26/03/2007 09:52

My guess is that it'll mild, cold, wet and dry

You should be a weather forecaster tich

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Mon 26/03/2007 10:49

It's fair comment in view of the mixture-formula seasons that have occurred a lot of late - summer 2006/7 (temps etc), winter 2006 (one cold month), summer 2005/6 (one very warm month), ...

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 26/03/2007 17:24

mixture-formula seasons that have occurred a lot of late

Yes , there will probably be some variation through the Winter.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Tue 27/03/2007 20:29

SNOW! is the word id like too hear lots again like last winter!

end of my story.

nice day in Christchurch...well it was overcast and cool but atleast it wasn't raining.
High was only 18c according too metservice.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 27/03/2007 22:11

Yes , there will probably be some variation through the Winter.

There is during most winters. Seasonal averages recorded at the end of the period often disguise big variations.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Tue 27/03/2007 23:04

For a winter that was consistently on one side of the ledger, 1988 had each month 0.5C-1.1C above the average, consistently mild. That followed a cool autumn! The spring was also very mild, very windy in Sept-Oct and a La Nina summer-autumn-winter followed (Index was showing La Nina from July 1988).

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Wed 28/03/2007 11:03

tornadoman18 wrote:SNOW! is the word id like too hear lots again like last winter! end of my story. nice day in Christchurch...well it was overcast and cool but atleast it wasn't raining.
High was only 18c according too metservice.

The nice weather in CHCH has disappeared today, its a typical North East drizzle, Autumn day.