Wrong impression of Southern Hemisphere coldness this June

[RWood]

With reports of coldness from NZ, Australia, S Africa and parts of South America, the wrong impression has been created.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/res ... .html#Temp

Both the land and the oceans have been warm overall. Among the landmasses not reported on in the popular media: Antarctica - Amundsen Scott at S Pole had its warmest ever June. Judging by what I experienced in Brazil from 24 June-16 July, most of that vast country was much hotter than average in the period. Not sure about Africa north of S Africa and south of the Equator.

I have no doubt AGW-phobes and their fellow-travellers will be trying hard to ignore this sort of information.

[jrj]

No, we've given up and now agree that we're all doomed, and only Al Gore, Sting, Madonna, Bono et al can save us
Now, where's that heater!

[RWood]

Scientists and the like don't count then? You can try as hard as you like to pretend it's all an artefact of trendy politics, media and showbiz, but it won't wash!

[jrj]

Like, these are the same scientists who predicted a mild, not overly wet winter? And we're expected to believe their forecasts for the next twenty years? Get off the grass
I suspect a gravy train here somewhere

[Michael]

I reckon its cyclical,We had cooling and heating periods in the past way before civilization,we get short term changes too and all will happen again in the future.

[spwill]

I have no doubt AGW-phobes and their fellow-travellers will be trying hard to ignore this sort of information.

Is the argument not over why?

[Gary Roberts]

With reports of coldness from NZ, Australia, S Africa and parts of South America, the wrong impression has been created.

Both the land and the oceans have been warm overall.

Dunno about you but I've been saying all year that this year has been milder than previous years.

[RWood]

Like, these are the same scientists who predicted a mild, not overly wet winter? And we're expected to believe their forecasts for the next twenty years? Get off the grass
I suspect a gravy train here somewhere

You are repeating a common fallacy about forecasting and prediction. I won't weary myself repeating what has been said at great length on other websites, but I suggest you look at Aussie's weatherzone or the UKWW forum where such assertions are dealt with at length. On the weatherzone forum a meteorologist has patiently spent a lot of time rebutting common anti-GW and anti-AGW arguments - look for the name David in threads like "Global Warming A coverup?" or "The solar-climate connection" or "The Planet, She's Screwed", etc.

[jrj]

No, I give up, I'm convinced. I'm going to start reading horoscopes too

[Gary Roberts]

No, I give up, I'm convinced. I'm going to start reading horoscopes too

I have to admit that I used to be a sceptic but after "studying" the issue more indepth I've become a lot less so. Having said that, I'm still not convinced that it's a purely contemporary and human-related issue, rather than a natural longterm cyclical event. However I'm more open to the possibility that it's entirely a case of the climate being changed relatively recently by human activity.

[TonyT]

With reports of coldness from NZ, Australia, S Africa and parts of South America, the wrong impression has been created.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/res ... .html#Temp

Both the land and the oceans have been warm overall. Among the landmasses not reported on in the popular media: Antarctica - Amundsen Scott at S Pole had its warmest ever June. Judging by what I experienced in Brazil from 24 June-16 July, most of that vast country was much hotter than average in the period. Not sure about Africa north of S Africa and south of the Equator.

I have no doubt AGW-phobes and their fellow-travellers will be trying hard to ignore this sort of information.

Sorry RWood, but I'm going to (I hope gently) take you to task for this.

Its you who is taking us up the misleading path with this post. There is nothing anti-global warming in parts of the Southern Hemisphere being colder than normal this winter, and to suggest that this "gives the wrong impression" is close to admitting that you only want the world to be perceived as warm in order to fit your own interpretation of climate change theory. Is the existence of colder than normal regions on a seasonal basis embarrassing to you?

There is no reason to assume that colder than normal seasons will not continue to be a part of regional climates in a higher CO2 world, nor should there be. All estimates of future global warming carry the caveat that they are global averages, and that there will be significant regional variations, and also that some regions may find themselves cooler from time to time (at least in certain seasons).

There is a very plausible theory (further articulated by Bob McDavitt in the local media a few months ago, but originating earlier than that) which suggests that New Zealand may well see regular (but not necessarily continual) colder than normal winters due to the effect of ice breaking off the polar ice shelf and cooling the waters of the Southern Hemisphere sporadicly. Its my opinion that details like these are simply not knowable at the present time - while there is plenty of good science in the climate change debate, the devil is very much in the detail, and its going to take time to find that detail.

Its not surprising that James takes the mickey if ardent pro-global warmists feel so defensive that they need to try to cover up or deny the existence of colder than normal seasons, when in fact the very science they are promoting allows for such.

[GSVNoFixedAbode]

I'd always got the impression that Global Warming promised more extremes of weather as there would be that much more energy to power them, rather than everything just being slightly warmer on average. Slightly OT, but I read of "Armada Storms" in a novel that seemed cleverly appropriate: storms so big it took an armada of butterflies on the other side of the globe to start them: Ref.

[Gary Roberts]

I'd always got the impression that Global Warming...

It's called Global Climate Change now.

I remember reading hypothoses by glaciologists back in the '70s that any global or polar warming would cause the ice packs to break up and spread, resulting in the extended surrounding air and water masses to cool, not only leading to lower temperatures but also changes in major ocean currents, which would exacerbate the situation greatly. In those days the fears were runaway cooling leading to a new ice age. Glaciologists tend to be, in general, very conservative in their estimation of potential events and effects, at least when compared with other Earth Science folk.

[jrj]

Yep, I remember reading them too

[RWood]

With reports of coldness from NZ, Australia, S Africa and parts of South America, the wrong impression has been created.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/res ... .html#Temp

Both the land and the oceans have been warm overall. Among the landmasses not reported on in the popular media: Antarctica - Amundsen Scott at S Pole had its warmest ever June. Judging by what I experienced in Brazil from 24 June-16 July, most of that vast country was much hotter than average in the period. Not sure about Africa north of S Africa and south of the Equator.

I have no doubt AGW-phobes and their fellow-travellers will be trying hard to ignore this sort of information.

Sorry RWood, but I'm going to (I hope gently) take you to task for this.

Its you who is taking us up the misleading path with this post. There is nothing anti-global warming in parts of the Southern Hemisphere being colder than normal this winter, and to suggest that this "gives the wrong impression" is close to admitting that you only want the world to be perceived as warm in order to fit your own interpretation of climate change theory. Is the existence of colder than normal regions on a seasonal basis embarrassing to you?

There is no reason to assume that colder than normal seasons will not continue to be a part of regional climates in a higher CO2 world, nor should there be. All estimates of future global warming carry the caveat that they are global averages, and that there will be significant regional variations, and also that some regions may find themselves cooler from time to time (at least in certain seasons).

There is a very plausible theory (further articulated by Bob McDavitt in the local media a few months ago, but originating earlier than that) which suggests that New Zealand may well see regular (but not necessarily continual) colder than normal winters due to the effect of ice breaking off the polar ice shelf and cooling the waters of the Southern Hemisphere sporadicly. Its my opinion that details like these are simply not knowable at the present time - while there is plenty of good science in the climate change debate, the devil is very much in the detail, and its going to take time to find that detail.

Its not surprising that James takes the mickey if ardent pro-global warmists feel so defensive that they need to try to cover up or deny the existence of colder than normal seasons, when in fact the very science they are promoting allows for such.

No, no embarrassment. Perhaps I should have made my points at greater length. Before that, I can state that one of my concerns is that New Zealand will frequently show opposite temperature anomalies (monthly or yearly, say) to the global ones, at least in the next decade or two, and particularly so during epochs that favour El Ninos more than La Ninas - like the one that still seems to be running now. And McDavitt's idea, given NZ's relative proximity to the Antarctic, seems quite attractive. This very concern about the local (NZ) climate "response" makes me worry that the general climate of cynicism about warming will continue regardless...every time the subject gets aired in the newspapers and then (eg) the e-Herald solicits public comment, a predictable splurge of letters alleging political correctness, bandwagon-jumping and "Chicken-Littleism" appears.

I also don't have any problem with the notion that the SH could have a colder month/season/year in a GW scenario.

Back to the original points in detail:

(1) There were enough reports from SH locations to give an impression that the SH landmass, at least, was colder than normal in June. No agenda there, it would just reflect the dominance of news from populated areas, especially English-speaking ones. It wasn't all that easy to check the facts, either. The "wrong impression" in the title was not suggesting an agenda, just inadequate facts (many secondary comments about the SH's "cold winter" followed the reports). Perhaps "incorrect impression" would have sounded more neutral.

(2) It is the case that in various forums and websites there are posters with anti-GW agendas who selectively report on "cold" events in a way designed to imply that warming is invalid, not because most of them believe these events constitute evidence, but because they know that many who read the posts will either accept that notion or at the very least feel confused about the issue.

If I get tempted into using one-liners where more comment would be better, it's a reaction against the widespread cynicism. This seems to be particularly prevalent in the older age-groups (to which I belong!). Meanwhile, I expect the mickey-taking to continue.

[TonyT]

Fair enough.

[tich]

There is a very plausible theory (further articulated by Bob McDavitt in the local media a few months ago, but originating earlier than that) which suggests that New Zealand may well see regular (but not necessarily continual) colder than normal winters due to the effect of ice breaking off the polar ice shelf and cooling the waters of the Southern Hemisphere sporadicly.

I've heard that idea before. I also wonder if warmer temps around coastal Antarctica result in increased snowfall maybe more ice cover. The Antarctic Peninsula and adjacent islands (South Shetland, Sth Orkney and Sth Sandwich) are warmer than the continent, but still have lots of ice reaching sea-level.
Much of the Southern Hemisphere is ocean; I don't know whether these parts are getting very cold outbursts from the south. Temperate South America, South Africa, NZ (well South island at least), and eastern Australia have been experiencing very cold weather so far this winter. (western Australia I think is still mild - haven't heard any reportes of wintry southerlies there yet)

[jrj]

I'll leave the last word to that good ole sceptic Mark Steyn

http://www.nysun.com/article/58455

[RWood]

I'll leave the last word to that good ole scepic Mark Steyn

http://www.nysun.com/article/58455

If he had anything interesting to say about the science (as opposed to merely political cynicism), he would be bound to be quoted by sceptics in some of the forums I have browsed - can't find him there at all.

Meanwhile, back nearer to the original topic - in light of what appears to be continuing coldness in the areas affected in June, the July numbers for the SH could yet be quite interesting.

[sw_windbow]

Haven't seen this article posted elsewhere:

GENEVA (Reuters) - The world experienced a series of record-breaking weather events in early 2007, from flooding in Asia to heatwaves in Europe and snowfall in South Africa, the United Nations weather agency said on Tuesday.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said global land surface temperatures in January and April were likely the warmest since records began in 1880, at more than 1 degree Celsius higher than average for those months.

Rest of it's here:http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/ ... 6820070807