Must be a sign of global warming?

[Manukau heads obs]

that the ice has disapeared that much ships will be able to for the first time get through the artic ?
the computer models predicted it would be the high latitude areas that would have the biggest increase in temperatures
that has been ongoing for a while now, I dont think it could still be called a trend of a cycle that will start to trend down again?

[squid]

the global warming topic is a real debate in itself between people that beleive it is happening and people that beleive it is not happening

[NZstorm]

Would be interesting to see some recent temp data from the Artic region. As I understand it the earths mean temperature has risen 0.5C since mid last century. Obviously much of that rise has been occuring nearer the poles. Would also be interesting to look at temperature data for NZ for the last 40 years also. When I get some time I might do a study of the NZ numbers myself, particularly Aucklands temps.

[southernthrash]

I would like to see info on changes in currents around the arctic, which could give rise to changes in sea water temp distribution, as well as precip data over the arctic ice sheet.

I've also read that the NW passage has been used by ships in the last 150 odd years?

Don't know a huge amount about the arctic, but it's all very interesting.

[mkII_grande]

I have read previously that disruption of artic ice and adjacent currents could actually lead to colder weather conditions.

[southernthrash]

That's what most of what I have read would suggest as well. This is apparently especially true in antarctica, and could see significant cooling in southern NZ over the next few years, especially if increased cold flow from antarctica sufficiently breaks down the Southland current.

[David]

I have read that Antarctica is actually getting colder:
http://www.libertymatters.org/newsservi ... blwarm.htm

How can this be?

[RWood]

I have read that Antarctica is actually getting colder:
http://www.libertymatters.org/newsservi ... blwarm.htm

How can this be?

This one is "old hat" now, typical of the type of stuff you'll find at a site dedicated to discrediting warming theories [I suggest that "libertymatters" actually means "As long as I make a buck, I don't care if people died from lead poisoning from additives, that tobacco companies lied endlessly about smoking damage, that ozone layer problems turned out to be real, etc etc". This quote from a meteorologist in Australia addresses your topic:

The ozone hole holds a number of lessons. First the cost of fixing it was trivial - the polluters massively exaggerated the cost. Secondly, atmospheric scientists by way of their conservatism took a look time to raise the alarm. They couldn't believe what they were seeing, and it took a long time before the science was confident enough to establish the CFC-ozone link. Third, its DUMB luck that saved the earth from unimaginable destruction with CFCs. Cl is a relatively poor catalyser of ozone destruction but Br is far far more effective. It was only because of dumb luck and the fact that Cl is a bit cheaper than we used it instead of Br in our CFCs. If this didn't happen, the ozone hole would now be global - a life would be???.

Finally, there have been totally unexpected consequences. The major one is that ozone depletion has completely changed the southern hemisphere polar votex in spring/early summer as it has massively increased the upper tropospheric baroclinicity. As a result the westerlies are much stronger at high latitudes and the polar lows stronger. This has meant very rapid warming in sub-polar latitudes (including the Antarctic peninsula) and a lack of warming over the pole over the last 20 years.

The stronger westerlies mean that the pole has been insulated from global warming and sea ice in the Antarctic after rapid retreat up to around the 1970s has been stationary (this is probably due to enhanced northward drift of sea ice due to Ekman drift). No body saw this coming....

Sounds like a good thing - but problem is as ozone recovers the 1C of warming which has been hidden will hit the continent with a bang on top of any other AGW warming this century. There's also some evidence that part of the reason the subtropics of the southern hemisphere have dried out since the 1970s is also due to ozone depletion pulling the polar storms south (as must happen to conserve angular momentum).

[mkII_grande]

That's what most of what I have read would suggest as well. This is apparently especially true in antarctica, and could see significant cooling in southern NZ over the next few years, especially if increased cold flow from antarctica sufficiently breaks down the Southland current.

Yeah! If the weather cools down in the south we'll get more snow! Woohoo!

[David]

Yeah! If the weather cools down in the south we'll get more snow! Woohoo!

And I think us Aucks could do with a few lower temps on our muggy summer days, which will be upon us in 2-3 months

[southernthrash]

That's what most of what I have read would suggest as well. This is apparently especially true in antarctica, and could see significant cooling in southern NZ over the next few years, especially if increased cold flow from antarctica sufficiently breaks down the Southland current.

Yeah! If the weather cools down in the south we'll get more snow! Woohoo!

hopefully, seems more likely to be drier and windier. Although winter storms may become more istense

[mkII_grande]

hopefully, seems more likely to be drier and windier. Although winter storms may become more istense

What kind of thinking is that? In another message you claimed the media was full of "negativity" because they reported the lousy skiing conditions in Canterbury this season! Let's put our hands together and pray for snow! Dear Lord, make it snow!

[southernthrash]

hopefully, seems more likely to be drier and windier. Although winter storms may become more istense

What kind of thinking is that? In another message you claimed the media was full of "negativity" because they reported the lousy skiing conditions in Canterbury this season! Let's put our hands together and pray for snow! Dear Lord, make it snow!

That's just based on what I have read. Ah yea, so the craigieburns missed the snow this year, not the first time, not the last. Still sounds like they had some epic days up there though. Mt Hutt have already extended their season for a week, shifting closing day from the 7th of october to the 14th.

[mkII_grande]

What kind of thinking is that? In another message you claimed the media was full of "negativity" because they reported the lousy skiing conditions in Canterbury this season! Let's put our hands together and pray for snow! Dear Lord, make it snow!

That's just based on what I have read. Ah yea, so the craigieburns missed the snow this year, not the first time, not the last. Still sounds like they had some epic days up there though. Mt Hutt have already extended their season for a week, shifting closing day from the 7th of october to the 14th.

Hi! Still if the they are having crap season and the media say so it's not really being negative is it?

The good thing is that I'm heading down to Turoa and Whakapapa next weekend where there's excellent conditions and then I hope to head to the south island late next month and it sounds like there will be more snow there this coming week!!!

[Willoughby]

The good thing is that I'm heading down to Turoa and Whakapapa next weekend where there's excellent conditions and then I hope to head to the south island late next month and it sounds like there will be more snow there this coming week!!!

So, erm, where do you live exactly ? It'd be great if you'd fill out your profile details.