New Cyclone for Western Aussie...

[gllitz]

From the JTWC:

WTXS21 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1S 117.9E TO 16.0S 117.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 271800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 117.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 13.4S 117.9E, APPROXIMATELY
420 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A CONVERGENT BAND ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EVIDENT IN A 271722Z AMSU IMAGE AND A 271315Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL VORTICITY AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CIRCULATION DESPITE MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL NORTHERLY WINDS OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE.
THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DIS-
TURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REORIENTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. DUE
TO AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND ANTICIPATED IMPROVEMENT
IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 282100Z.//
NNNN

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Probably will be short lived and off the coast of western Oz and into the Indian.
JohnGaul
NZTS