NZ Weather Forum

latest gfs run has a new low moving over the top of the NI from the SW, bringing easterly winds to the auckland area on sunday...could be thundery in the south of the area in that situation....

Looks interesting

Somewhat better timing there on Saturday

On the humid side today, Auckland dewpoints are up to 16C. Some towering Cu and shower development around, Current temp is 18C and overcast.

had a bit of a tropical like downpour here a little while ago
big drops from a very black based cloud line that came off the waitaks

Typically it pours down at 3pm on a day I didn't take my rain jacket
Almost 4mm from that shower, looks like some more to follow. Rather high dew points today.

Manukau heads observer wrote:had a bit of a tropical like downpour here a little while ago
big drops from a very black based cloud line that came off the waitaks

Not sure if it was the same one but i saw that as i left auckland this afternoon. I caught the edge of it just out of Manukau.
Between Mercer and Huntly it was rather tropical rain as well. Then it moved southish and has just hit here not long after i got to the olds house.

Udate 4:10pm: HOLY CRAP!!! i hear thunder

wow.. look at the structure around the low..
too bad the last pic isnt centered, but look in the top left

Looks like Hamilton is getting some rain around now, at around 7.00 am it was overcast then had a fine break for about 4 hours now overcast and looks like it is threatening to rain.
Fractus clouds in the picture. It may look like the cloud is descending its not infact it is going the other way.
If you look at the lightning tracker it seems the low is very active in the lightning department.

Very dense solid rain here...8mm last hour and still pouring

Just light periodic drizzle here - 3.3mm so far this arvo...

I see Waiuku got 10mm out of those shower lines

Udate 4:10pm: HOLY CRAP!!! i hear thunder

Interesting to see that weak Thunderstorm down there in the Waikato this afternoon.

A huge amount of Lightning out in the central Tasman Sea tonight.

big thundery cell west of northland currently. really big!

What the on earth are MS on I would like to know I would atleast expect to see a moderate risk up for tomorrow afternoon/evening for thunderstorms.
Everything there suggests it i would think apart from the timing but even that shouldnt be a problem, onshore NE winds before hand no NW.
Wooah there goes the Globemaster just now, climbing in altitude right above me what a roar just now .
Should be some brief rain later on from the north.
Cheers
Jason.

MetService have a moderate risk of weak tornadoes for NE coastal areas and the BoP tonight and tomorrow morn in this mornings Severe Convection/ Thunderstorm Outlook.

They also expect NE winds around the Gulf, Waitemata and Manukua harbours rising to 55 km/h, gusting 75 km/h, this evening ... then same again from SW on Saturday evening.

Mean NE winds at 1pm were 37 km/h at Bean Rock, 32 km/h at Tiritiri Is. and 52 km/h in the Colville Channel.

Could be an interesting night ... might even get some waterspouts out here ...

seems to be a front that has big holes in it...might miss the worst of it...unless a new development occurs on the front.....(could easily do)

yea, sunlight for the first time today just now. wouldnt rule out convection around the low during the night.

Judging by the rain radar, doesn't look like much coming...metservice not even expecting much instability with the front either, surprisingly. Thankfully 15mm fell here yesterday afternoon (max 10mm in 1 hour) if the front is a fizzer.

Is this correct tomorrow? .... from bom

if the front is a fizzer.

Front may well fire up this evening, some development can be seen out to the NW of the NI.
Gusty rather humid NE, currently 20C in some sunshine

Looks like the waikato is not going to get any storms for friday afternoon.
Wind is fair but there are no clouds that have any verticle development.
The overcast has just left and now We have sunny Skies.

shower line out to the WSW is very lightning active at the moment

Heavy shower here just now. Yes, front looks active out to SW.

Yes, that is a very active strom.. looks like on its current path it will slide just SW of hamilton

What are the chances of it fireing up even more when it hits warmer land? or would the land be too cold by then to help convective activity?