7th March thunderstorms on the cold front!

[Vertigo]

looking like a GREAT setup today!

cold front inbound from the tasman over auckland, waikato, moving inland over taupo towards gisbourne. dewpoints around 20C, with clear skies for some decent heat buildup. the sounding at 1am shows favourable conditions, at the moment its just barely unstable, with a weak cap at 760mb. metservice forecasts have a severe thunderstorm risk over the central north island today, and high risk of thunderstorms over much of the rest of the island.

chase on?

[NZstorm]

I see Tuaranga Airport has temp 24.3C dewpoint 22C! Very good sign for an unstable pm in the BOP.

[DT-NZ]

Heard a few distant rumblings coming from the west (approx 30mins ago) no more since.

[Vertigo]

hands up whos keen for a chase? wed have to get moving fairly soon to catch them near tauranga/rotorua, looks like a good target area.

[spwill]

The Cb line out to our west has really weakened. I see a new line has formed over eastern Waikato.
Warming up here now with 24C and a dewpoint of 20C, might chase in Waikato this afternoon.
photo, Cb near the West Coast of Auckland

[David]

Interesting metservice think there's a high risk for Auckland and Northland. Looking at the radar it appears we don't have any instability at all the way the showers are just dying! Unless there's another line coming in which is beyond the radar?

[Vertigo]

they may be referring to cooler upper temps behind the cold front.

[NZstorm]

The upper air is cooling off a bit today and a cold front is due thru Auckland mid afternoonish. I guess while the dewpoints are holding up there is a thunder risk. But the best convergence looks to be down eastern Waikato/BOP way.

[Peter]

Another "non-event" for Auckland? Despite relatively high dew points, skies have a flat, stable look to them, radar indicates nothing out to the west, and satellite pics don't show anything - if I had to guess from this morning's synoptic chart I'd say a very weak cold front has already crossed Auckland in the past couple of hours - with an apparent weak wind shift - and that's it for the day apart from a few scattered showers

[jamie]

Would love to chase as i am already in the waikato but sadly i have work from 2.30-7.30. very sticky today.. lets see what it can deliver. Hopefully something good again.

EDIT: looking at the radar there is another weak line just moving onto the west coast. With the heat we have here it could build up very quickly.

[Tornado Tim]

I would Love to chase today.. but thing is who with? Hopefully some DTSH (Daytime surface heating will occur)
and enhance the instability even more when the front moves on through....
Id say the hot area would be the Eastern BOP like NZstorm said...
760j/kg YAY! Now who wants to chase if this eventuates?

[Dale]

Just visual with a cell towards the S of Pukke.. had a nice glaciating top on it and has just produced a short lived wall cloud, has now cycled & turned into a rain bearer.. the radar does it no justice.

[spwill]

A 2nd wind change early afternoon which has some small Cb development on it now as it moves across the Waikato. Took this photo at Bombay early afternoon of developing showers on that change, probably will produce storms over the Eastern High Country later.

[NZstorm]

The problem today was the moisture was gone by the 11am sounding (00Z, the balloon is released at 11am). Considering mixing the convective dewpoint was only about 15C which is too low given the upper air is still quite warm aloft. Can see a distant cb to east from here but it doesn't look anything great.

[spwill]

TStorm has formed Hauraki plains east of Hamilton

[NZstorm]

Now that lower clouds have cleared can see stronger cb's out to distant E/SE. Looks like Kaimai Ranges.

[Tornado Tim]

TStorm has formed Hauraki plains east of Hamilton

Yes and this is it.
A Nice CB Incus to the ENE of Matangi

[jamie]

That cell passed right over top here and i have had a view out east all afternoon during my work and i had an aawesome view of it developing. Shame i hadwork.. it would have been perfect to have chased all the way to Te Aroha.

[Philip Duncan]

Just heard from my folks in Te Aroha - huge downpour, significant surfacing flooding and lightning overhead.

Never hits Auckland does it!?!

[David]

You got that right Phil! Everywhere around us gets more exciting weather than here. Northland, Coromandel and BOP get heavy rain events and Waikato/BOP gets good thunderstorms.

[jamie]

WOW i have an amazing view. I just took some photos and will upload them at the end of the Blues Sharks game.

Clear blue skies then an awesome white stack sitting over the kaimais. Nice boiling updraft too.

[Tornado Tim]

Hello, Hello...
Another one developing to NNE of me now...
Who else can see it?

[jamie]

yes two well defined cells. the northern most one has a very active updraft

[mattyj46]

Current link to Tauranga webcams

http://www.trustpower.co.nz/TrafficCam/ ... ctionID=21

Looks like heavy rain there

[TokWW]

Hearing lightning strikes every 20 secs or more on AM radio from herte in Sth Waikato. We are on the N-S convergence zone or just west of it in Tokoroa. localised strikes over te Aroha and out to the BOP. I have study to do tonight otherwise it would be fun to chase.