Sea Surface temps

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NZstorm
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Sea Surface temps

Unread post by NZstorm »

Latest sea surface temps. Could the cool ocean area visable in the eastern Equatorial Pacific be a La Nina?

Augie Auer recently claimed there was a La Nina.

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NZstorm
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Unread post by NZstorm »

The offical word is we are in a nuetral phase (neither El Nino or La Nina).
Previous Cold Phases
La Niñas occurred in 1904, 1908, 1910, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938, 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988, 1995
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NZ Thunderstorm Soc
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

NZstorm wrote:The offical word is we are in a nuetral phase (neither El Nino or La Nina).
Previous Cold Phases
La Niñas occurred in 1904, 1908, 1910, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938, 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988, 1995

Yes, Steven we are in a neutral stage as explained by Jim Salinger in his talk here in ChCh last year.
Augie and La Nina go together. He's adament that we are in a La Nina phase and will be for a long time yet, despite indicators going the other way.
Out of the 2 phases, I prefer the El Nino as that phase is more likely for thunderstorm events to occur in Canterbury.


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TonyT
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Re: Sea Surface temps

Unread post by TonyT »

NZstorm wrote:Latest sea surface temps. Could the cool ocean area visable in the eastern Equatorial Pacific be a La Nina?
No

The historical (statistical) data is stacked heavily in favour of the next significant SO event being an EN, the question is when and how big.

However, given the see-sawingnature of the SOI over the last 4 months, it wouldnt surprise me if the value for April turns out to be more positive than March was (+3), and a shift to the positive makes for more depressions affecting New Zealand. So my pick is that April will be less settled than March.
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