09 Hurricane Season

[spwill]

A quiet start to the Atlantic Hurricane season but I see there is a strong Hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Hurricane Felicia is currently moving toward Hawaii but weakening as it moves over cooler water, it may give Hawaii some heavy rainfall early next week.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep3.sh ... l#contents

[NZstorm]

The Hurricane Hunter aircraft have relocated to Hawaii from Mississippi this weekend. They must be getting bored with an inactive Gulf Mexico LOL.

GFS version of a weak Hurricane Felicia passing just north Hawaii on Wednesday. Instability forecast here.

[spwill]

The Hurricane Hunter aircraft have relocated to Hawaii from Mississippi this weekend. They must be getting bored with an inactive Gulf Mexico LOL.

El Nino is likely to produce an active Hurricane season for the Pacific but a less active season for the Atlantic, seeing that already.

[spwill]

A Tropical Storm Watch for Hawaii
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/HFO/HLSHFO.0908090323

[NZstorm]

This chart shows dry air off USA deserts into the Pacific.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... kAsal.html

[Nev]

Re the Atlantic Hurricane Season, came across these comments from a couple of weeks ago...

History-making cold and quiet
July 27, 1:04 PM

...In the Atlantic Ocean there are two contributors to the calm. First, the ocean waters in many areas have been running slightly below normal, and while the water has warmed some in recent weeks, the temperatures are right around normal so they’ll support hurricanes, but the energy needed for strong storms isn’t there. Secondly, there have been repeated rounds of sand and dust blowing off of Africa across the ocean toward the islands of the Caribbean and even into Florida at times. That layer of air remains as strong as we have seen it at any time this season, and studies have shown that Saharan air (with the dust and sand) limits tropical development. If this continues, we may have one of the quietest tropical seasons in history because our August and September hurricanes tend to form in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean, which happens to be the areas which are most affected by the Saharan dust. Interesting, eh?

- Rich Apuzzo - Chief Meteorologist, Skyeye Weather LLC (Cincinnati)

[NZstorm]

This chart shows the Saharan air layer over the Atlantic. Also shows a wave off the African coast (cloud) which could be the early signs of an Atlantic tropical storm.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg

[spwill]

Weakening Felicia will move across Hawaii over the next 36hrs as a tropical depression.

[spwill]

Weakening Felicia will move across Hawaii over the next 36hrs as a tropical depression.

200mm for a Mnt location on Oahu, 50 to 100mm for quite a few locations, more rain to fall today.

[Nev]

Nice pic of 4 areas of tropical interest between the Central and Eastern Pacific taken at midnight last night by the GOES-11 satellite from this NASA feature story (larger pic incl.)...

'GOES-11 Satellite Captures a Very Busy Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean'
.

[Philip Duncan]

Not sure if Ana is going to form tonight or not...the storm has weakened quite a bit today (TD-2) but the thunderstorms behind it, just off Africa, look pretty impressive. I see AccuWeather are picking a possibly hit to eastern US in 12 days time...wonder if this second disturbance will be Ana or Bill.

Interesting to note that in 1992 Hurricane Andrew wasn't even a TD at this stage...didn't form until Aug 17 NZT and it was a Cat5 hit to Sth Florida. With El Nino forming this could end up being a late but more interesting season than '08.

Hope everyone is well!

[spwill]

Wind change in this time lapse
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EmHKpTXdvI

[Manukau heads obs]

I like it

[Storm Struck]

I see there's another Tropical Storm now developed in the Atlantic, creeping up behind Ana's bum.
Tropical Storm Bill.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents
Ana has a projected path at the moment to head into the Gulf Of Mexico where it could intensify.

[NZstorm]

Things are lighting up over there. There is a developing tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico just west of Florida. Looks interesting on the radar . They are calling it tropical storm Claudette. It will make landfall today which prevents it developing into a hurricane.

[spwill]

Hurricane Guillermo in the Eastern Pacific will weaken and move to the north of Hawaii this week.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/hpir.html

I am currently on Maui, high summer weather here, sunny and hot with a fresh east trade wind to cool things down a little. Maui weather will turn more humid with afternoon showers mid week as the remains of Gillermo pass to the North.

[spwill]

On Maui,
Some late afternoon Cb here yesterday with Guillermo to the north which I think are not that common here in summer but the Islands get a lot of Cumulus showers on East coasts/ Mnts with the east trade winds.

Currently sunny, 30C here at Kaanapali, West Maui. Showers trying to build over the Mnts.

[degreed]

I see from CNN that Hurricane Bill is now being described as "Extremely Dangerous"

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/weath ... index.html

[DT-NZ]

NASA / NOAA | GOES-14 Views of Hurricane Bill
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkhGunBaiXE

uploaded to youtube today - impressive

[tich]

I see from CNN that Hurricane Bill is now being described as "Extremely Dangerous"

Hillary should be able to keep Bill under control.
Seriously, The latest I've heard is that Bill isn't expected to directly hit the US - but no one should relax just yet.

[Willoughby]

And Category 5 Hurricane RICK, near the Baja Peninsular, Mexico. It's the second strongest hurricane ever in the Pacific east of the IDL.

Some unbelievable wind forecasts with this monster, with the NHC forecasting gusts in the following 12 hours to 185 knots (343 km/h)!

Code: Select all

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  914 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?#RICK

HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT RICK APPARENTLY PEAKED BETWEEN 0200
AND 0400 UTC THIS MORNING. SINCE THAT TIME...THE WARM EYE
TEMPERATURE HAS FLUCTUATED BETWEEN 10 AND 13 DEGREES
CELSIUS WHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 1230 UTC SSMIS PASS SHOWED A WEAKENING
OF THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL AND FRAGMENTS OF A DEVELOPING OUTER
RING. IF THE INNER EYEWALL WEAKENS FURTHER...RICK COULD WEAKEN MORE
QUICKLY THAN INDICATED HERE. GIVEN THAT THE OBJECTIVE ADVANCED
DVORAK INTENSITY 3-HOUR TREND SUGGESTS SLIGHT WEAKENING...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 150 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AS THE
CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
SHEAR IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE SYSTEM THROUGH DAY 5 AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA AND INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN
HEDGES MORE TOWARD THE LGEM AND DECAY SHIPS GUIDANCE.

Check the formation out! Amazing!


Eyes on what the ECMWF is going to be spitting out too over the next few days. The 00Z run has a major hurricane charging through the Gulf of Mexico towards the deep south states in 180 hours.

[Manukau heads obs]

Check the formation out! Amazing!

I love it!
that has to be like the perfect storm!

[jamie]

holly crap!!!!!! that thing is nuts... was well worth the 10 mins it took to load. wow!!!! over what time period is that foggy?
its amazing how elliptical it is and how quickly its rotating.. it looks more like a solar system in space