Heavy Showers/ Possible Thunderstorms 11th Feb, 2010

[Tornado Tim]

A trough of low pressure is set to move steadily eastwards around the Central NI tomorrow.
Combined with Daytime heating makes the Central NI's atmosphere quite unstable.

I would say heat showers are likely but lift to get storms going is another question.
At this point LI is a little to high and on top that a initial SW flow will not help things get going.

Here is a CAPE/LI GFS chart:

[spwill]

Daytime heating will be key to drag in the seabreeze from the east, afternoon convergence will be more likely over eastern areas.

[NZstorm]

I agree with the above, eastern regions of the NI look good for pm thunder. Thats where the best convergence will be.
00Z GFS fires pm convection from about the kaimai ranges eastward.

[tgsnoopy]

Hmm, a day working in Whakatane scheduled for me for tomorrow. I'd best pack my camera and tripod looking at things. Lets see if 3800 photo's at the Air Show on the weekend helped break it's Jinx

[Vertigo]

looks like the air aloft has cooled significantly before 1am last night, and will continue to do so.

[tgsnoopy]

Looking interesting South of Whakatane, fingers crossed for some action this afternoon. Stuff seems to be coming in from the East too.

I've managed to organise some flexible work this afternoon. Fingers crossed

[Paul Mallinson]

Three thunderstorms have developed inalnd Hawkes bay and are coming up to hastings and Napier.

Paul

[kelhb]

Some good rumbles of thunder happening here in the last 40mins, watched a flight heading to Napier go into cloud, do an abrupt turn around and head south again - wise idea given the colour of the sky they were heading into. No rain though.

[borris89]

a few pics of the thunderstorms over hastings/napier.

[pomem]

Some good rumbles of thunder happening here in the last 40mins, watched a flight heading to Napier go into cloud, do an abrupt turn around and head south again - wise idea given the colour of the sky they were heading into. No rain though.

Hubby was on that flight, no probs just went out to sea a bit and landed normally. Lots of thunder and rain in Taradale, it was fun!

[tgsnoopy]

My day took a few unexpected turns and got very busy, so I was pleased nothing eventuated, it would have been quite frustrating.

I would have liked to have known the dew point earlier in the day (~10am), some of the cloud was very low in places. Couldn't see Putauaki (Mount Edgecumbe) at all, it had dissapeared into a big black cloud.

By about 1pm I'd lost interest as it was apparent nothing much was going to happen.

[spike_01]

Havent had a good thunder storm here for ages.. Surely our turn will come soon.. Just not today ok, I got stuff to do later..