Xmas day weather

[NZstorm]

We speculate every year on Xmas weather so may as well test out the 384gfs model. A wet Xmas on cards!

[Manukau heads obs]

that will be a nice xmas pressy for farmers/growers

[Michael]

I like it Raining (even quite cold) on Xmas day,brings the spirit of the day with the hot food etc,like Xmas day 1996 was like that

[RWood]

As we all know, GFS is infallible at 144h, so of course we should treat this with great respect

[Manukau heads obs]

it will be about the right time to get a pattern change
I reckon xmas will see rain in the north

lets start a Poll

[Razor]

Oh for heavens sakes, its three weeks away. Go buy a lotto ticket, you'll have more chance of some sort of result this far out

[Michael]

They were pretty spot on with Labour day at 384hrs

[tgsnoopy]

My forecast for Xmas...

Budgets & Diets blown, family gathered, gifts given & received. Oh and their will be some weather

[Manukau heads obs]

Oh for heavens sakes, its three weeks away. Go buy a lotto ticket, you'll have more chance of some sort of result this far out

I disagree
there are patterns you can follow over a number of weeks and my pick is that the current pattern will break down, and allow in rain bearing lows from the north
the exact timing might mean it might not be exaclty xmas LOL

[jrj]

three weeks?

[Razor]

three weeks?

It was a test....lol

[Manukau heads obs]

isnt it down to how many sleeps now?
LOL

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I think it will snow on Christmas Day here

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Tim S]

Well I think the whole of NZ will get some weather on Xmas day, I know its a big call this far out but I can predict with 100% certainty that we'll all get weather of some sorts. Its the details of this weather I have no idea about. but going by a little bit of knowledge and a whole lot of guesswork I think that GFS forecast will be fairly close to the mark, with a rather warm humid day for most with some rain but not heaps.

[Storm Struck]

Santa's moaning and groaning could be mistaken for a strong NWer across canterbury as he struggles to squeeze through the heatpumps because alot of the chimneys were damaged from the quake.
But all in all it may just be a nice day with the chance of some patchy rain in areas across the country, some may get a thunderstorm gift.
Also while enoying the day the xmas tree may sway back and fourth and the ornaments tingle apon jolts.

[mikestormchaser]

It would be a hard call wether to go chasing xmas day as i have a big xmas lunch sorted with my family, but i dont think id be able to help myself if we got a thunderstorm lol

[NZstorm]

A more positive looking trend now. 252hrs.

[spwill]

Xmas day weather looks good for most of the country at this stage , rain /shower risk for Fiordland/ Westland.

[Dale]

After what happened in my hometown of Jimboomba last night & what is promised for the region today & tomorrow, it should be an interesting xmas here.

My old neighbours still without power with ironbarks, gums & all sorts splattered about the place, cricket ball hail throughout the Logan, Beaudesert & Jimboomba areas, power lines twisted to shreds.. massive stuff likely to take a few days to move over but insanity at its best.

[Richard]

Tried to get hold of my brother last night who's to the north of the city after seeing on the radar an area of black/dark brown go right on where his is,looked bad.

getting a bit off topic here,maybe i should mention something about Xmas day weather.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

A fine day for all, methinks

JohnGaul
NZThS

[spwill]

Looks like some showers for much of NZ Xmas eve with a trough crossing the country but Xmas day still looks good for most of NZ, the far sw of the SI is likely to see increasing cloud and some showers . Boxing day looks good for most, rain/showers for the w/sw of the SI.

[Storm Struck]

Yes a cold SW change xmas eve brings in a good chance of thunderstorms and hail from Otago to Kaikoura, this clearing on xmas day so easing SW winds should make for a pleasent early 20's day.
Boxing day looks settled apart from the far south with the next low system starting to come in.

[Tornado Tim]

BOM'S ACCESS Model has it relatively dry for the whole country on christmas day

[Michael]

Looks Horrible.