Super moon 19th march

[Storm Struck]

The biggest moon in 19 years will be observed on Saturday with it being the closest since then, should be interesting to see if its a cloudless sky.
I am very much prepared for next weekend for various reasons and not just by what one person has said but several others.
I guess you could put the japan quake down to either- the poles shifting, the 9 metre comet which missed the moon with a 60% chance of hitting earth and of which NASA choose not to tell the world about ( typical ).
Or that its because we are building into this big moon.
I only think theres a small gravitational pull on the earth from the moon, i guess there could be alot of factors to try and back up whats happening.
Yes i know earthquakes happen every day across the world, but the earthquakes are increasing in freqeuncy and size.
Last year had the record high of 19 magnitude 7 plus earthquakes world wide to beat the average of 15, this year 3 months in we are on 8 already.

[Manukau heads obs]

see
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/japan ... s-guessing

looks like earthquake clusters are nothing new

[Storm Struck]

I guess the magnitude size was the more surprising to geoligists, Japan is an active region for quakes as they have several volcanoes within the region.
If this quake had struck land of that magnitude and depth even with good building codes much of Asia would have been flattened, thankfully although it created a big tsunami the ocean actually cuchions earth movement somehow well thats what i reakcon anyway.
But certainly a characteristic of a large fault quake was shown by this one as it went on for over a minute, simular to the greendale here moderate at the start and violent shaking 15 seconds in then the rolling at the end.
Even though it wasnt an overly large fault like the Alpine.

[Razor]

Oh FFS I can't beleive supposedly intelligent people subscribe to this utter bullshit and scaremongering around the "supermoon" and its links to tectonics.

The "not to be named here" perpetrators of this hysteria should actually be locked up and charged with public nuisance.

I'm sorry if I offend anyone here with that statement, but thats just the way it it.

Yes it is right to be prepared as Jasestrm is- everybody should be at all times in this country, however thats simply because we live in an active area, not the friggin moon lunacy.

[Michael]

Anyway a close moon is also an astronomical scientific event(close perigee) as well which means it appears (minutely) larger than it normally does,also the same effects means when a solar eclipse occurs the difference annular to total.Mars and other planets has similar ones incorporated in their oppositions.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Oh FFS I can't beleive supposedly intelligent people subscribe to this utter bullshit and scaremongering around the "supermoon" and its links to tectonics.

The "not to be named here" perpetrators of this hysteria should actually be locked up and charged with public nuisance.

I'm sorry if I offend anyone here with that statement, but thats just the way it it.

Yes it is right to be prepared as Jasestrm is- everybody should be at all times in this country, however thats simply because we live in an active area, not the friggin moon lunacy.

Well done Razor. Earthquakes happen because there the area cannot take anymore stress. Its simple as that. The research shows that earthquakes happen in Clusters. New Zealand had an active period if the 1930's for 5 years or something like this with 6 magnitude6+ earthquakes. Some people are just stressed and try to look into it to much because we have personally experienced it. I must admit I am one of them but at the end of the day I believe it happens because it is just nature. There probably is some sort of connection between earthquakes if earthquakes come in clusters but It will only set off ones that were probably on the verge of going anyways. If this so call 'supermoon' thing affects earthquakes then personally Im screwed as I have to cross the alpine fault.....

Anyways in regards to Japan, it seems that the 8.9 was felt as a 7 in Sendai and a 5 mag in tokyo i read somewhere....hmm and the christchurch shaking was more in chch than sendai due to distance. Its the tsunami that caused the problem!

[Storm Struck]

Its not all down to the experts though, i get peeved when people say the scientists have said this so it must be right when quite often they know just as much as we do.
Look at Cantebury Geoligists are baffled with the amount of aftershocks and ongoing behaviour of them, so its best to form your opinion not basing it on scientific information as a reliable source.
But i guess at the end of the day everyone is thier own expert.

Earthquakes do happen every day across the earth yes, but not to the increasing amount we are seeing over the past 4-5 years.
I dont make any predictions but it wouldnt surprise me if we had another big one in the coming weeks, with all these so called hidden faults under the plains.

The Japan quake would have been about the same distance as Christchurchs 6.3 magnitude, it struck just offshore from Japan so the magnitude 9.0 would have been felt as an 8.0-8.4 in Sendai but with great building codes most of the taller buildings in Tokyo stayed up.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

I don't think more earthquakes are happening, we are just in a cluster stage. Go back a few decades and there were more clusters. Plus the media has a big impact on our knowledge of quakes now...

[Manukau heads obs]

Look at Cantebury Geoligists are baffled with the amount of aftershocks and ongoing behaviour of them

huh?
where did you read that?

so its best to form your opinion not basing it on scientific information as a reliable source.

nothing best about that in my opinion

[jamie]

Look at Cantebury Geoligists are baffled with the amount of aftershocks and ongoing behaviour of them

huh?
where did you read that?

stuff had an article the other day.

the classic is a formula we learned at uni.

Risk = hazard x exposure x vulnerability

simple answer was if the chch earthquake happened where there was no one to feel it would not have even made the news. if the japan one happened away from one of the most densly populated places on earth then it would have only made the news by a tsunami that was created. the more people on earth we have increases every variable on that formula!

[NZstorm]

Look at Cantebury Geoligists are baffled with the amount of aftershocks and ongoing behaviour of them

I did read they were surprised by the timing of the 6.3 aftershock, they thought the risk period for a big aftershock had passed.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

They are looking to scan underneath CHCH incase another hidden fault lies that could produce a magnitude 4.

[NZstorm]

An interesting chart here of recent earthquakes around the globe. Has a 7day animation.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... nim/world/

[Manukau heads obs]

Look at Cantebury Geoligists are baffled with the amount of aftershocks and ongoing behaviour of them



I did read they were surprised by the timing of the 6.3 aftershock, they thought the risk period for a big aftershock had passed.

yes, it was thought as time went on , and a mag 6+1 after shock had not occured, the chances were getting less and less that it would occur
but it did occur, in the end
I dont think the word baffled would be correct though?

[Storm Struck]

The 6.3 quake wasnt an aftershock though it was a separate quake, on a different fault line.
What i mean is ive heard over the past 6 months different ideas from different geoligists, one was about faults under the city and whether they will go too.
That projected chart i put on the 7.1 quake thread which was put in the press showed the potential areas of release to come which was back in early january this year, the next day a geoligist from Canterbury Uni said they shouldnt have released that article until they knew more about the faults because it might scare people.
He then went on to say he woulnt be surprised if there was a large quake in the near future, so everyone has thier own opinions.
Someone said to me at work on the radio this morning they had a geoligist from Geo Net on talking about the quake in christchurch and the future of aftershocks, he said they are studying the area around Tai Tapu and Rolleston because the greendale might link up with the port hills fault in the coming weeks.
They pin pointed the magnitude 5.1 which struck on January 20th as a possible foreshock trigger for the 6.3, and that if the two faults meet it could result in another magnitude 6.
But theres so many different theories going around and hype that nobody really knows what is ahead for canterbury.

[gllitz]

I lived in Japan for 4 years and my wife 9 years - she even survived the big Kobe earthquake back in the mid 90's that killed 5000+ people...and you know what killed most of them? NOT the shaking or buildings falling over - it was the fires from all the reticulated gas people had at the time (granted, the lines were munted from all the shaking). We will never have a house with reticulation or gas heating, etc...

And with this recent one, as we have all seen in shock, awe, and horror, it is the tsunami. And this particular event wasn't even their "big one" that they are expecting. (Do a google on the Great Tokai earthquake, and see what comes up)...but then again, maybe their calculations on "the big one" were off?

The below makes for an interesting read:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ach ... _blog.html

Just to make this point once again: all of this earthquake/earth moving/etc is still happening in the twinkle of a blink of an eye, geologically speaking. Those Alps we look out at didn't just happen in a few months, ya know...all of this that is going on in par for the course, nothing more, nothing less. KEEP PERSPECTIVE WITH THIS - we are humans, our time scales are WAY smaller than the Earth's.....

EDIT: and this is just wicked - gives people time to get ready, if they can....

http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/20 ... rks-or-not

[Manukau heads obs]

the aftershocks from the sep quake were spreading west and east
and the east spreading aftershocks must have stressed this blind fault under the port hills, which went...
so wether you want to call it an aftershock or not...dont know (i.e it might not have gone if the sep quake had not occured , you see)
once it call settles down, it could be 1000's of years again before these particular canty faults move again

[Orion]

"Keep Calm and Carry On"

[gllitz]

BRILLIANT! (not from me, btw, but from a comment online...)

Earthquake predictions.

I've noticed a direct correlation between earthquake frequency and the number of mismatched socks in my laundry. For example, I was missing three pair of socks and one each form 2 pair during the last two loads of laundry I did right before the Japanese quake. I had similar issues before the Haiti quake, the Chilean quake and the Indonesian quake and tsunami.

Let's look at the math.

Right before the Japanese quake, I was missing 3 pair of socks (6 socks) and one sock each from 2 pair (2 socks) for a total of 8 socks.

Multiply 8 x 1000 = 8000.

take the natural log (ln) of 8000, and you get 8.987.... This is very close to the magnitude of the Japanese quake. Also, since these were all black socks, it points to northern hemisphere west of the international date line

I've done the math on the other quakes as well, and there is a direct correlation between my sock disappearances and quake magnitude around the world, as well as hemisphere relationship based on combinations of black, white or colored sock ratios.

I would urge the world scientists to take my sock readings and predict the next powerful quake and which quadrant of the globe to expect it. The music of the socks does not lie.

[gllitz]

"Keep Calm and Carry On"

Never were truer words spoken.....

[tgsnoopy]

BRILLIANT! (not from me, btw, but from a comment online...)

I would urge the world scientists to take my sock readings and predict the next powerful quake and which quadrant of the globe to expect it. The music of the socks does not lie.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Yes, the 6.3 was on a different fault but it only happened as a result of the 7.1magnitude it seems. It reactivated an old fault that had not gone off for many thousands of years (hence the hidden fault). I have spoken 3 or 4 times to Hamish Campbell from gns. He also said now that the ground around Canterbury is much better now as it is compacted better and shaking in the future should decrease damage somewhat. Also bear in mind that the Alpine Fault is 90km away at its CLOSEST point and that it varies in distance from Christchurch of up to 90km-300km. The chances are extremely SLIM for the rupture to occur right on the closest part to Christchurch. Good to see that the aftershocks are slowing down. Seem to get a mag 4 or close to once a day and a few smaller ones (sometimes not noticable).

[Orion]

*clears throat*
*says in a squeaky voice*
"what about Mayfield?"

[Storm Struck]

According to an article in the press the other day we should have been getting 4-5 magnitude 4's a week but in the last few weeks have seen 9-10 which had geoligists puzzled.
What we will see over time is lots of smaller ones with the odd occasional magnitude 5.0-5.5 is certainly fair to say given the nature of the past 6 months and i wouldnt be surprised if the greendale produced one of those as its still got alot of settling down to do.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes, the Greendale fault has been sporning a few light tremours, not feelable, here despite the closeness and very shallowness, one quake was just less than a kilometer deep and a kilometre from here, last night.
I don't think there will be another quake here of anything substantial, actually when the next substantial one occurs, on another fault,say a 5 pointer, the Greendale fault should seal.

JohnGaul
NZThS