Unsettled Week, Tasman Lows, 1-7th October

[Tornado Tim]

Seems we have a bit of unsettled weather coming towards us from Australia.

The Low that is currently out in the Tasman sea is expected to move southwest wards clipping the SE of the South Island bringing a fair bit of wind down there.

Yet while that is expected to happen another low developing just off the coast Of Queensland is expected to dominate our weather for the week coming.

Low LI's have been forecasted for the past 2 days around Northland and Auckland with Good Cape and fairly good moisture feed from the NW around the 2nd of October.

Will have to see how things further develop but it does seem this week coming will be quite unsettled.

[Manukau heads obs]

some (relatively) warm spring rain to come for the NI alright
will be good for spring grass growth
although the good sunshine hours means the grass has a lot of "guts" to it, and Fontera is reporting an early flush of milk this year (they are calling it a wave of milk), and its becoming a challenge to co -ordinate the pick up of all the milk
due to a good autumn and over all not a bad winter

[spwill]

I dont mind rain when it comes with warm weather. Some eastern areas have had a very dry September, they could get good rainfall next week.

[Richard]

some (relatively) warm spring rain to come for the NI alright
will be good for spring grass growth
although the good sunshine hours means the grass has a lot of "guts" to it, and Fontera is reporting an early flush of milk this year (they are calling it a wave of milk), and its becoming a challenge to co -ordinate the pick up of all the milk
due to a good autumn and over all not a bad winter

Many of the central pivots on the two dairy farms near me are running now so its getting dry here.
The low next weeks looks good for a bit of easterly dizzily stuff for a few days in this neck of wood hopefully

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Another Aussie ECL in a run-down of the El Nino weather pattern.
Maybe interesting to see what next week may deliver here in NZ.

JohnGaul
NZThS

[NZstorm]

There is a lot of lightning in the Tasman this morning. Looks like the main cold front doesn't reach Auckland untill Monday. There should a good thunderstorm risk with the front.

14C in Grey Lynn this morning with an overcast day.

[NZstorm]

Looks like tomorrows front will be slow moving, crossing Auckland in the afternoon and BOP evening. Isolated thunderstorms/heavy falls/squalls 60kts/tornadoes are possible on the front.

[Manukau heads obs]

looks very impressive at the moment, but all the action is to the NW of us at the moment, and its all spiraling back into the center
but its modelled to move onto us...

[David]

Metservice evaluate the thunderstorm risk for Auckland tomorrow as low (moderate for Northland). Better than no risk I suppose

[Manukau heads obs]

they do have high risk for northland out now, for later, and risk of small tornadoes
that boundary is close to the auckland area, so....

[David]

And the rain is just starting now...(after light drizzle patches this afternoon)

[Manukau heads obs]

yes, some nice warm spring rain here now

[Tornado Tim]

Lightning activity is good atm, with the front moving SSW, activity will be a hit and miss affair......
Over 3000 strokes have been detected by my boltek since midnight....

Warm temps overnight pritty much staying stationary around 15°C in a a warm NE flow.

[David]

A very mild night, temperature has rising to 15.6C here this morning, dewpoint 15C. Some rain to move in soon.

[NZstorm]

Looks like the frontal boundary crosses Auckland early afternoon and we may get some thunder, as Tim suggests, it will be hit and miss.

Looks like we won't get any deep convection tomorrow in the upper NI but Wednesday and Thursday may have thunderstorm possibilities due to slow moving nature of this trough and some cold upper air (500mb -22C).

[Manukau heads obs]

thunder heard here just now
my boltec picking up heaps of strikes to my NW!

starting to get a good thunderstorm here now
edit,the flashes seem to be intercloud mainly (warm frontal type thunderstorm I guess)
update: looks like the main lightning producing cell is now moving down the coast past me now
update agan: seems to be rebuilding in again. Like this sort of weather
port waikato/waiuku area getting heaps now

[Nev]

Check out today's latest Metservice Severe Thunderstorm Outlook update - quite an about-face from an earlier update a few hours ago...
.

[Tornado Tim]

Thunder heard here
Update: good flashes of lightning too

[Richard]

Thunder heard here
Update: good flashes of lightning too

oh your lucky,only had the one good flash here this morning,oh well at least it got the kids outa bed for school

[Manukau heads obs]

next thunderstorm closing in from the NW , according to my tracker
but the rain radar shows its sliding down the coast line ,in fact the whole frontal zone is...

[spwill]

Certainly lightning active just off our west coast, continues quite gloomy here but mostly dry , 16C, dewpoint 15C, breezy NE.
Warmer at the Airport with 17-18C, reverse of a southwester

[David]

Just a cloudy windy afternoon here so far. Air is very moist - temp 17.5C dewpoint 16C.
Metservice has a forecast of 20 tomorrow...I've been looking forward to the first 20C day of the season

[David]

Severe thunderstorm watch issued...

Issued by MetService at 01:58 pm Monday 03 October 2011
Valid until 07:00 pm Monday 03 October 2011
This watch affects people in the following weather forecast districts:
Northland
Auckland
Great Barrier Island
Coromandel Peninsula
Waikato
Waitomo
Taranaki

A very active front supporting showers and thunderstorms, is currently moving onto the far north of Northland. It is expected to cross Northland through the afternoon and then move over Auckland, western Waikato, Waitomo, North Taranaki and Coromandel Peninsula through the late afternoon to early evening. There is a possibility that one or two of these thunderstorms may be SEVERE, supporting squally wind gusts to 110km/hr or more, with the risk of a damaging tornado, especially in eastern coastal areas.

These squally winds and possible small tornadoes may cause some structural damage, including damage to trees and power lines, and make driving hazardous. If any tornadoes occur, they will only affect very localised areas.

Should severe weather approach or if you feel threatened, take shelter immediately.

Issued by: Paul Mallinson
This watch will be updated by: 05:00 pm Monday 03 October 2011

http://www.metservice.com/national/warn ... torm-watch

[Manukau heads obs]

my boltec picking up more and more strikes as this 2nd active line gets closer
20 to 30 strikes a minute

[Nev]

I see Metservice also amended their Severe Thunderstorm Outlook update at 11:43am to include the 'risk of small tornadoes over Northland early to mid afternoon and about Auckland from mid to late afternoon, especially in east coastal locations'.

I did wonder why that risk was mysteriously dropped in the previous update. Must've been an oversight?