Thunderstorms possible 11-14 October, North Island

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 10/10/2011 06:35

Looking like thunderstorms are on the cards over the North Island this week. A broad slow moving upper trough in the Tasman will slowly move across the country this week. Colder upper air is due over the NI from about Wednesday. An unseasonably moist airmass (dps15C) should turn the air unstable Tuesday over the upper NI.

Looks like on Tuesday the front will be in the eastern BOP allowing for some daytime heating further west and hopefully some low level convergence. A few afternoon thunderstorms should pop up from Northland down to Waikato.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 10/10/2011 08:41

awesome. just what the doctor ordered

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 10/10/2011 08:44

Perhaps we can get into some sunshine tomorrow in the humid flow, NE v NW in the afternoon.

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 10/10/2011 14:35

Certainly looks like a lot of rain the next few days....would be excellent to get some thunder & lightning too.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 10/10/2011 15:00

yea looking 50+ mm possibly for Hamilton. Will be the best rain we have had since early July.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 10/10/2011 17:39

NZstorm wrote:Looking like thunderstorms are on the cards over the North Island this week.

Could be in the South Island too, depending on air movements, heating and other factors, later in the period

JohnGaul
NZThS

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 10/10/2011 17:51

Could be in the South Island too, depending on air movements, heating and other factors, later in the period

Yes, with all that cold upper air crossing, could be a severe hail scenario later in the week for the east coast.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Mon 10/10/2011 17:55

Both Friday and Saturday are possibles for us eastern mainlanders hopefully

Manukau heads obs · Mon 10/10/2011 18:52

saw some lightning out to sea about 45 minutes ago

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 11/10/2011 00:10

Pouring in Howick - 10mm last hr

Manukau heads obs · Tue 11/10/2011 05:40

yes, very usefull dollop of rain here (17mm)

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 11/10/2011 06:47

Wow 27 here. Wasn't expecting that when I went to bed with it on just 11mm

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 11/10/2011 07:32

It may be just a bit too warm aloft for thunder today but I still think there is fair chance of a late day thunderstorm over western Waikato.

Auckland may get 22C today if we get the sunshine.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 11/10/2011 07:58

quite a bit of fog around. So the air is nicely saturated down in the low levels.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 11/10/2011 08:05

Auckland dewpoints are 15C.
Western Waikato perhaps best for some heating and the chance of seabreeze convergence today.

Manukau heads obs · Tue 11/10/2011 08:09

big blow up way to our north
maybe that will help cool temperatures aloft as it moves south towards us?

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 11/10/2011 08:11

jamie.haultain wrote:Wow 27 here. Wasn't expecting that when I went to bed with it on just 11mm

And 30mm here, far more than I expected too. Got 16mm of that in 1hr. Nice mild night, min 14C.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Tue 11/10/2011 08:16

15.5mm here overnight and very thick fog also atm.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 11/10/2011 09:14

The 850mb temperatures are quite warm today, 9C to 10C which acts as a little bit of a lid on convection. But hopefully some cells can break through this afternoon. Will need a good warm up though.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 11/10/2011 09:37

yes well it is [email protected] already and warming very quickly. Feels tropical outside.

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 11/10/2011 09:41

No warming here yet, very dull with mist/fog. Hopefully it clears soon!

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 11/10/2011 10:29

wooaaa plenty of heat out there. currently now 18.5 with DP on 17.3

Thats a very high DP.

Tim is very similar on 18.3 with DP of 16.4

Manukau heads obs · Tue 11/10/2011 11:08

DP rising here too, nearly 18C and DP not much below that
patches of blue

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 11/10/2011 12:04

The first humid day of the new season

, looks like plenty of cloud cover today will limit heating.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 11/10/2011 12:07

its pretty darn warm out there.

the cell just north of great barrier has suddenly come into life. If thats happening over the ocean it should happen over land should it not?

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Thunderstorms possible 11-14 October, North Island

Thunderstorms possible 11-14 October, North Island

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