NZ Weather Forum

What thunder for today??????
...or even lightning for that fact. Wrong conditions.
I hope I'm wrong, tho'

CHCH Weather Chaser wrote:, A muggy day none the less today.

Chritschurch dewpoint 12C, on the moist side for Christchurch.

Looks like a dry surface west /northwest may be a problem for storms on friday but the upper trough looks very good, see what the surface conditions are on friday.

spwill wrote: Looks like a dry surface west /northwest may be a problem for storms on friday but the upper trough looks very good, see what the surface conditions are on friday.

Yeah, well you might as well flag this one away and see what Friday brings.
Could look more 'crucial'?

Moderate /heavy rain in Oamaru currently

Certainly a mixed bag day low cloud and fine drizzle this morning, then fine spells and cloud but remaining humid for much of the day.
Brief shower at work just after 4pm then cleared very quickly again, but just had a steady shower here now looked up blue sky but the shower cell was about 5km east of me with a rainbow.
I see the front is getting organised over south canterbury now, so maybe some claps of thunder mixed in with the rain band as it moves through tonight as it will be hitting very muggy moist air.
17C currently with little to no wind.

It looked good around 8:30 / 9:00, it felt promising around 13:00 when the stratocumulus were breaking, and it finally completely fizzled. Or at least so far, 'cause driving back from Rakaia I could see good Cbs north of Christchurch and on the radar the mess around Lake Tekapo did seem to drift east. But now I'm home and don't care anymore ... and I don't think my manager will let me go off on Friday on top of blowing up my budget for petrol so don't count me in, and good luck !

Jasestorm wrote:I see the front is getting organised over south canterbury now, so maybe some claps of thunder mixed in with the rain band as it moves through tonight as it will be hitting very muggy moist air.

Unfortunately that band isnt forecast to move up here, its forecast to be going out to sea where it started and thats what it seems to be doing.

Occassional light shower from W-E moving. I wouldnt expect to get a mm out them. Just came in from watering the garden though and very mild and calm. It has somewhat of a westcoast feel about it to me.

Fizzer today, gut always said it was going to be from the outset but You always hold that hope that metservice know something that I dont. Knowing local conditions play a massive part in canterbury storms, something metservice have struggled to understand over the years. Oh well I will do a long shift tomorrow (7am to 6pm ) to make up for it and allow me the option to take Friday afternoon off if things look good.

Oh well I'm off to the West Coast tomorrow for a few days tramping and R & R and looking forward to some action weather over there!

03Stormchaser wrote: You always hold that hope that metservice know something that I dont. .

It would be great to have access to the model information they have and the radar.

You always hold that hope that metservice know something that I dont. .

I think people underestimate the gfs. I used to, but I now know its as good as it gets for forecasting. The SPC in USA use it.
Ofcoarse when you are looking at the model you are viewing it with your local knowledge and awareness of the model weaknesses/strengths.

What was the CAPE forecasts for today, I can't seem to get onto them?

What was the CAPE forecasts for today, I can't seem to get onto them?

There was just about nothing modeled on the gfs.

Hope the person who came up with that forecast has some more MET lessons on Canterbury forecasting.

Yikes 15cm of snow forecast for Arthurs pass ...thats going to make the Viaduct fun!

We had 11mm rain here from 5-10pm . Some pockets of heavy rain too . maybe an embedded Cb but no thunderstorms now eased

As long as there is some sun out tomorrow

And unfortunately there wasn't really any sun, yip was an iffy day but as you say steve one always hopes. I drove out behind Ashburton for a tiki tour and who do I find but Ben out there so first case of chaser convergence I've had, haha.... atleast that was something.

Hi Brian, I work evenings and finish late so I'm often up late. lol.

Cheers
Aaron

Thunderstorm and heavy hail shower on southern outskirts of Oamaru at midday , SW squalls but now back to a westerly and fine weather

TCU just went over with a breif shower of sporadic drops mixed with hail stones, still coming over from the west but developing east of the foothills now instead of spilling from the west.

Think I just heard thunder.
14.1 degrees & falling; 48% humidity; fresh westerly breeze with strong gusts; overcast with rows of dark cloud coming from south-west or so. Quite dark cloud to southeast and east.

Fine day here today except for a 10min downpoor earlier on which gave us 1.2mm here locally. WNW that has been fresh but sitting on around 14 degrees for most of the day, some nice heat in the sun when the Westerly abates but its rather gusty today. Yes looked to be a TS coastal Rakaia as you say Jase. 4pm Radar shows some scattered heavy showers around BP and an interesting line around Ashburton area.

That looks like a squall line coming up the coast quite intense too must be the SWer.

Plenty of sunshine here still with much the sky blue dome, however some bubbling Cu to the NE but especially to the South of here.

That CU to the NE just produced a heavy shower with hail mixed in, grounds wet again but sun back out now.
Quite odd how its pushing east in a line almost.
Edit: here comes another one now, dark CU developing cell.

5pm radar shows that intense cell passing BP. Currently a dark CU right over top of here drifting from SW to NE.