Further Flash Flood Threat for Italy, France & Spain

[davide]

An enormous perturbation is hitting France and from tomorrow also north-west Italy. It's forecasted also over 500 mm. Strong wind now in France (100-170 km/h) with already huge accumulation of rain! slowly the perturbation is moving to east, in north Italy it's beginning to rain. we're going to have heavy rain, strong thunderstorms till next tuesday!

Here the European Sat now:



LIVE --->

static:



mooving:

http://www.sat24.com/frame.php?html=homepage

[Manukau heads obs]

loks like SE UK also getting hammered?

[davide]

ESTOFEX Convective Forecasts

Forecast Update
Valid: Thu 03 Nov 2011 15:00 to Fri 04 Nov 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 03 Nov 2011 16:02
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 2 was issued for parts of Southern France mainly for excessive rainfall, tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

A level 2 was issued for parts of Northeastern Spain mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts, tornadoes and excessive precipitation.

DISCUSSION

... S France ...

12 UTC Nimes-Courbessac sounding reveales very impressive low level jet with 25 m/s windspeeds around 800 hPa level transporting nearly satured airmass with moderate CAPE values at warm layers of troposphere. Barcelona 12 UTC shows around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and very moist low to mid levels of troposphere. Surface observations reveal mesoscale low development in the lee of Pyrenees, enhancing surface southeasterly flow over the highlighted region. Conditions have become favorable for development of highly effective rain producing convective clusters with likelihood of training pattern over this area, resulting in excessive rainfall, possibly with rain rates over 100 mm/3h. Additionally, even stronger vertical wind shear at lower levels (22 m/s of 0-1 km shear in Nimes sounding) than anticipated by models, low LCLs and high CAPE values till 3 km point to the enhanced chances of tornadoes. Especially at higher elevations, severe wind gusts might occur as well. The tornado threat will be most prominent in the evening hours close to the coastlines.

... NE Spain ...

12 UTC Barcelona sounding shows impressive conditions for supercellular storms with 26 m/s of DLS and moderate CAPE values. Also shear at lower levels along with SREH is enhanced with surface SE onshore flow. As storms approach this moderately unstable region with high shear, they may strenghten and become capable of producing large hail, severe wind gusts and even an isolated tornado is not ruled out. In case of storm clustering and evolution of training pattern over some areas, very moist low levels point to the possibility of excessive rainfall event.

Other levels have been slightly adjusted according to the new data but their threat description as written down in the original Storm Forecast are still valid. Please refer to it for further details.

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/ ... update.xml

[davide]

loks like SE UK also getting hammered?

yes. also spain next days...the worst is forecasted for france (south) and north italy...

[davide]

mm forecasted in NW Italy:

[davide]

total precipitations in 72 h:

[davide]

[davide]

level 2 on 3 for friday-saturday between SE france and NW italy

[Manukau heads obs]

I guess you have the Northern Italian alps being a big rain barrier -> producer from a moist air flow coming off the mediteranean

[jamie]

thats impressive!

[davide]

I guess you have the Northern Italian alps being a big rain barrier -> producer from a moist air flow coming off the mediteranean

exactly!!

[davide]

Genoa under a powerful thunderstorm!! over 500 mm in few hours!!

[davide]

GENOVA (Genoa): a city on its knees









a dead woman, a girl lost by now

roads reduced to rivers

we have other 4 days of rain in front of us...

[davide]

5 deaths by now...

special editions of the news on TV

the prefecture of the city invites the population (over 600 000 inhabitants) to remain at home on the upper floors

dramatic pictures are coming...i'll post them

[davide]

7 deaths (3 children)...

http://www.youreporter.it/video_disastr ... o_sardegna

[davide]

[davide]

http://www.youreporter.it/video_fereggiano_esonda

[03Stormchaser]

I see there was a few reported tornadoes and funnel clouds around Genova today.

[davide]

I see there was a few reported tornadoes and funnel clouds around Genova today.

i don't know...i'll check

water bombs in the Mediterranean...



Stormy Sea on the cost:

[davide]

[edit]

[davide]

other pics from Genova:







found on facebook

[davide]

the monster on the sat:

[Orion]

Sorry to learn of yet more flood-related deaths.
I realise the rainfall has been exceptional in this event: what are the catchment areas like - have they been deforested and built-over in recent years? is there potential to channel future floods away from the city at all?
Best wishes.

[davide]

Sorry to learn of yet more flood-related deaths.
I realise the rainfall has been exceptional in this event: what are the catchment areas like - have they been deforested and built-over in recent years? is there potential to channel future floods away from the city at all?
Best wishes.

no deforestations..."only" buildings built close to some rivers that were restricted...

[davide]

A Tropical Storm is forming in the Mediterranean: