Possible Thunder/Hail for Otago/Canty - Nov 13

[mikestormchaser]

Just thought i would start a seperate thread for the chances of thunder and hail in Canterbury tomorrow seems like could be good for development particuly in South Canterbury.. might be worth a chase!
Thoughts anyone?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Still looking at this one, Mike.
Another Waimate Tornado? ...but

[NZstorm]

might be worth a chase!

Judging by the latest gfs run looks like weak storms/small hail over inland North Otago and possibly South Canterbury. I would save your fuel money for a better looking day Mike. I think there should be some good set ups in the not to distant future.

[Nev]

This morn's update:

MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Sunday 13 Nov 2011
Issued at: 8:28am Sunday 13 Nov 2011

Afternoon wind convergences are expected over inland Southland, Otago,Canterbury and Marlborough. At the same time, a cold trough in the upper atmosphere should move onto the lower South Island. Showers, some heavy, are expected in these areas during the afternoon and evening with a low risk of a few thunderstorms. However, the risk of thunderstorms is considered moderate for inland areas of south Canterbury and Otago, with an embedded high risk of thunderstorms from about Fairlie in south Canterbury to Ranfurly in Otago. These thunderstorms may produce localised heavy rain of 10 to 20mm/hr and hail of 5 to 15mm diameter.

[Lacertae]

Seems a little too far, too late (between 4pm and 7pm according to the 3-hour rain model) for me, I don't think I'll be in. I might eventually drive south a little bit after 3pm just to get a better view if the skies remain clear here but that's it ... otherwise it might mean blowing up a date and I don't think the excuse of a storm chase will give me an other chance with her ...
Is the heavy rain due to slow moving weak t-storm clouds or are we talking of "proper" t-storms ?

[tgsnoopy]

Seems a little too far, too late (between 4pm and 7pm according to the 3-hour rain model) for me, I don't think I'll be in. I might eventually drive south a little bit after 3pm just to get a better view if the skies remain clear here but that's it ... otherwise it might mean blowing up a date and I don't think the excuse of a storm chase will give me an other chance with her ...
Is the heavy rain due to slow moving weak t-storm clouds or are we talking of "proper" t-storms ?

You could try asking if she would like to join you for something a little different and explain the situation. She may be keen as and then she'd make a great potential girlfriend. Otherwise she may offer a rain check, also a good omen.

[Lacertae]

A rain check ?

[Thunder]

haha, funny.

Will keep an eye outside and might drive south if it looks ok. Atleast the weather is nice here in Chch for my first day / night off in a while.

Cheers
Aaron

[tgsnoopy]

Rain check, no pun intended. It's when they give you permission to postpone a date or some such, as something unforseen has come up, meaning against your wishes you can't attend. At least that's what it meant when I grew up. Still in the context of the conversation it did cause me to smile, even though I didn't realise what I was writing at the time.

Meanwhile I'm really liking the forecast tomorrow in light of where I'm likely to be heading. I just hope my boss ordered the part and it arrives tomorrow morning without problems.

[Lacertae]

Aha OK, I see.

Some lovely cirrostratus fibrus up there right now.

[Lacertae]

Incomplete 22 degrees halo too now ... my little finger tells me to get things ready, just in case.

[Lacertae]

Around 15:30 from the airport, just out having a look.

IMG_3473_nzwf.JPG

IMG_3474_nzwf.JPG

IMG_3477_nzwf.JPG

[snowstormwatcher]

Looks like a non event here, rain rader shows nothing and now its overcast with no sign of any storm activity.

[Lacertae]

The SW change is still hours away, might be a nocturnal event for southern chasers ?

[mikestormchaser]

Been up to the port hills with jasestm today, went for a nice walk up there, very peacful and to check out the clouds! nearly got a full 360 degree view up there and the convergance and shear was evident!
Nothing to get excited about though unfortunately and i would say it would be a non event even though it was only a slight chance anyway! well picked once again nzstorm i saved my fuel like u suggested
And thanks for the texts John

[Lacertae]

Aaron reports action down Mt Peel and it's now visible on the 7pm radar.

[snowstormwatcher]

Rain radar shows activity in the Mackenzie. Cant see anything from here because of the low cloud.

[melja]

Good storms with hail and heavy rain while coming home from coast, all around the Lake Pearson area.

[Lacertae]

Sorry my bad, the radar was indeed showing something in the MacKenzie and not Mt Peel.

[Thunder]

Action at Mount Peel, haha. Weak Cb more like was what I saw. But something none the less.

Had a drive down south to have a look around as nothing else to do today, thought atleast if something happened I'd be down there allready. Wasn't game to go into the Mackenzie Country though as that seemed a bit far although was getting close, went as far as Fairlie where I saw some distant Cu going up but it got obscured quickly. Took a photo of some closer Cu but only small. When cloudy seemed cool with a bit of a breeze so figured the convergence must've been further inland which it would've been going by Satellite images. Coming back saw the weak Cb forming over Mt Somers area, it looked like it then spread out and weakened further as evening came in, doesn't look like there was much from it although possibly one loan strike going by the tracker in that direction. Had a shower when near the Rakaia Gorge area. Good to get a practise chase in for when the real storms come, lol.

Looks great in the North Island tomorrow and maybe there will be some pictures up!

Cheers
Aaron

[Lacertae]

Even a weak Cb is more action than what we (didn't) have last time !