NZ Weather Forum

MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Monday 14 Nov 2011
Issued at: 11:35am Sunday 13 Nov 2011

The cold upper trough should move across the central North Island during the afternoon, while a surface trough drifts westwards across the Bay of Plenty at a time of optimum heating. This is expected to lead to the development of showers with some thunderstorms from Bay of Plenty and Gisborne, to Taihape and Hawkes Bay. About the ranges of Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay and across the the Bay of Plenty, there is a high risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, resulting in localised heavy rain of 15-25mm/hr and hail. For this area there is also a low threat of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the afternoon and evening, with the possibility of localised downpours of 25-35mm/hr and hail 10-20mm in diameter.
For eastern Waikato, Taupo, Taihape and central Hawkes Bay, the risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening is considered moderate. Thunderstorms through these areas have the potential to bring heavy rain of 15-25mm/hr to localised places and hail.
A lesser thunderstorm risk is expected during the afternoon for Manawatu, Wanganui, Taranaki, Taumarunui and eastern Waitomo, as well as in the ranges of Nelson and Marlborough in the South Island.

MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Monday 14 Nov 2011
Issued at: 8:03pm Sunday 13 Nov 2011

The cold upper trough should move across the central North Island during the afternoon, while a surface trough drifts westwards across the Bay of Plenty at a time of optimum heating. About the ranges of Gisborne and Hawkes Bay and across to the Bay of Plenty and Taupo, there is a high risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, resulting in localised heavy rain of 15-25mm/hr and hail. For this area there is also a low threat of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the afternoon and evening, with the possibility of localised downpours of 25-35mm/hr and hail 10-20mm in diameter.
An area of moderate risk of thunderstorms surrounds this area, extending out to Taumarunui and down the Ruahine Ranges. Thunderstorms in this area have the potential to bring heavy rain of 15-25mm/hr, also hail, to localised places.
A lesser thunderstorm risk is expected during the afternoon for Manawatu, Wanganui, Taranaki, and eastern Waitomo, as well as in the ranges of Nelson and Marlborough in the South Island.

MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Monday 14 Nov 2011
Issued at: 8:41am Monday 14 Nov 2011

A cold upper trough should move across the central North Island this afternoon, while a surface trough drifts westwards across the Bay of Plenty at a time of optimum heating. About the ranges of Gisborne and Hawkes Bay and across the Bay of Plenty, and the central North Island high country to eastern Waikato and Taumarunui, there is a high risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, resulting in localised heavy rain of 15-25mm/hr and hail. Additionally for the Bay of Plenty, Taupo and the ranges of northern Hawkes Bay and Gisborne, there is a moderate threat of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the afternoon and evening, with the possibility of localised downpours of 30-40mm/hr and hail 15-25mm in diameter.
An area of moderate risk of thunderstorms surrounds this area, extending further west over Waikato and Waitomo and down the Ruahine Ranges. Thunderstorms in this area have the potential to bring heavy rain of 15-25mm/hr and hail to localised places.
A lesser thunderstorm risk is expected late morning and during the afternoon for Manawatu, Wanganui and Taranaki as well as in the ranges of Nelson and Marlborough in the South Island.

jamie.haultain wrote: Tim - did you overlay the radar onto google earth there?