Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 01/12/2011 07:39

Looking like some unstable weather over the inland North Island Friday pm. Recent model runs have been consistent with bringing in moisture (dp15C) Friday with an upper tough/cold upper air over the area. Have to see how this shapes up but looks like the main convergence will be over the Taupo region, but thunderstorms/hail from Hawkes Bay across to Waitomo. The weakness in this set up in the eastward progression of the colder upper during the afternoon. Tomorrow morning we will know better, but given its December the thunder probs must be good.

500mb chart for 1pm

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 01/12/2011 19:10

Dewpoint plot for 4pm tomorrow. Moisture is not looking so good on the 00Z gfs run.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 01/12/2011 22:27

Leaving palmy tomorrow for a weekend in taihape before back to Hamilton next week. What are the chances of a storm taihape way tomorrow?

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Thu 01/12/2011 23:35

NZstorm wrote:Dewpoint plot for 4pm tomorrow. Moisture is not looking so good on the 00Z gfs run.

16Â°C is usually suffice, but I wouldnt want it to go lower than that.

Here are some nice zoomed up GFS Charts:

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 02/12/2011 07:07

What are the chances of a storm taihape way?

Chances of a ts over the Taihape region look good for mid to late afternoon. The high ground of the central North Island looks good some cb development this afternoon.

The west of Waikato could see an isolated storm but I don't like the way the upper trough is pulling away this afternoon.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 02/12/2011 08:27

looks to me like an east cape event today.

Tuesday looks good for the upper north island from what i can see.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 02/12/2011 09:01

looks to me like an east cape event today.

there will be convergence/lift over the centre of the Island but a question mark over the amount of instability. The more sunshine/heating today the better.

I agree that Tuesday is looking a lot better. Hope the gfs verifies.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 02/12/2011 09:07

Perhaps all a bit far from Auckland today for an afternoon drive but I will keep an eye on it , hopefully plenty of afternoon heating and a seabreeze for western Waikato.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Fri 02/12/2011 09:46

Flip this is getting me excited!!!! I so hope it comes true on the 5th!

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 02/12/2011 10:31

yup tuesday looking good alright. Where do you get those zoomed in maps tim? i just tend to use weather zone maps so not in any real detail for our area.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Fri 02/12/2011 11:23

I use a program called opengrads to do the GFS plotting, however the program isnt GUI based and requires scripting access.

I could help you set it up if you wish but it does require you knowing commands to do what you want (similar to old DOS days, LOL)

Manukau heads obs · Fri 02/12/2011 13:22

nice summer time looking shower line /convergence line moved through here, not to the south of me...

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 02/12/2011 13:49

On the muggy side here with 17C dewpoints now, cloud/sunshine 22C, fresh northeast breeze, some small towering Cu, watching for some west coast convergence Waikato way. I see Hamilton has a dewpoint of 15C.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 02/12/2011 13:58

Picture...

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 02/12/2011 14:41

Some nice blow ups over the Gisborne ranges now. Tracker shows some strikes.

Raglan wind is NE 12km/h. So no west coast sea breeze there.

borris89 · Unread post by **borris89** » Fri 02/12/2011 16:28

Massive storms over the northern HB ranges at the moment, went up very fast

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 02/12/2011 16:32

Yup massive thunderstorm over the ranges towards hawksbay from taihape. Great view here. Big CG's dropping.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 02/12/2011 17:09

I'm looking at that shower cloud over the west of Waikato from Grey Lynn and the cb's are trying to build.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 02/12/2011 17:28

I drove down to north Waikato mid afternoon, towering Cu showers down there( photo), maybe an isolated storm there in the next hr. Looks like plenty of action further south, much of that will be over high ground.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Fri 02/12/2011 17:30

borris89 wrote:Massive storms over the northern HB ranges at the moment, went up very fast

Grab ya camera borris, would love to see them

Fantastic photo spwill...love it

borris89 · Unread post by **borris89** » Fri 02/12/2011 17:36

Some low sea cloud stuff has come in with this easterly but if it clears I'll be sure to do that

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 02/12/2011 18:03

Wow me brother is 30km north of taihape an they just watched a tornado hit some trees! Dam im so jealous! He said he got some crap photos as they are driving

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Fri 02/12/2011 18:52

Look forward to the arriving flight Monday afternoon... Question is... Will I get straight into my car and chase?

So many photo's to go through already, getting a storm in NZ would be a great returning present

Manukau heads obs · Fri 02/12/2011 19:19

Wow me brother is 30km north of taihape an they just watched a tornado hit some trees!

cool!
thats a bit unexpected...the CB's did not look that intense up this way further

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Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

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Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec

Re: Thunder over central North Island Friday 2 Dec