UK Weather - Winter 2011/2012

[Simon Culling]

The weather has started Winter by cooling off a little and becoming more unsettled as high pressure retreats and the Atlantic exerts its influence. Winds are more westerly than south westerly and hence a cooling trend will continue in the next week. The CET is 6.2*C (+1.1*) up to the 2nd, but this will fall over the next 7-10 days and probably be below the average by then.

Friday (2nd) was the coolest day since March (although lovely and sunny), with maximums over England of 5.4*C at Leek (Staffordshire), 5.9*C at Little Rissington (Glos) and 6.3*C at Wych Cross (E Sussex). There was a widespread frost in the morning (the second morning this week that I have had to scrape the frost off my car), with minimums of -5.2*C at RAF Topcliffe (N Yorks), -3.0*C at Benson (Oxon) and -2.9*C at Santon Downham (Suffolk).

With winds turning NW over Scotland by Sunday, the Met Office has issued early warnings for settling snow even to low ground, and with the threat of a northerly outbreak next weekend, we could be seeing some of the white stuff here in the south by next weekend. Hopefully not a repeat of last December.

[Simon Culling]

It has remained cold, but not on the scale of last winter, although there has been some disruption due to snow especially in Scotland and NW England where 10-20cm has fallen in places, especially over the hills. Most of the passes over the Pennines (Cat + Fiddle, Horseshoe and Snake) were closed because of snow and ice....they only go up to approx 1800ft. Max and Min temperatures yesterday (Monday 5th) were:

-0.4*C at Fyvie Castle (Aberdennshire)
-0.1*C at Salsburgh ()
0.3*C at Spadeadam (Cumbria)
3.5*C at Leek Thorncliffe
6.2*C at Bedford (not far from Milton Keynes)

-6.8*C at Loch Glascarnoch (Highlands)
-6.3*C at Fyvie Castle
-5.9*C at Aboyne (Aberdeenshire)

See link at BBC for details and photos:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-16022410

Here in Milton Keynes it was a mostly sunny day yesterday (5th) with a slight frost to start, but plenty of hard ice to scrape off the car as showers on Sunday evening froze into a crust. Maximum temp was 6*C after an overnight low of -1*C. A very deep low (sub 950mb) is forecast to pass over Scotland on Thursday with wind gusts as high as 100mph and dragging cold NW winds across the UK in its wake, with snow showers in the west.

[jamie]

How about those winds in Scotland. 241km/h it got to I heard.

[Manukau heads obs]

came across this picture...wind turbine that could not handle the winds in scotland

[jamie]

Wow where did u find that. They are meant to stop turning when it gets too fast. Eg lock up. It's brake must have failed and the strong wind over heated it. Then again they are geared too so the gears must have failed for it to sound so fast to create that amount of heat

[Nev]

'Blown away: gales wreck wind turbines as Scottish storm wreck havoc'
The Telegraph - Friday 09 December 2011

Gusts of up to 151mph were recorded in the Cairngorms in Aberdeenshire as gales brought travel chaos to Scotland and the North.

A 100-metre tall wind turbine burst into flames in North Ayrshire, and in Coldingham in the Scottish Borders, a turbine crashed to the ground yards from a road.

The £2 million turbine in North Ayrshire was not believed to have been spinning at the time. Fires can occur if extreme wind loosens or breaks electrical connections, whether turbines are rotating or not. ...

Also see gallery which includes this pic of the other wind turbine that was blown over near Coldingham.

[Simon Culling]

The depression that caused these incidents passed quickly east across the northern tip of Scotland yesterday (Thursday 8th Dec) with a central pressure of 955mb at 1500GMT. The strongerst winds were on the S and SW side of the depression and luckily passed just to the north of the most populated area....the central valley linking Glasgow and Edinburgh.

The strongest winds were recorded on the mountains with a mean of 120mph and gusts to 165mph atop Cairngorm mountain (at 4000ft) and gusts to 137mph on Aonach Mor (at 3900ft and not far from Ben Nevis). The roadside AWC at the Drumochter pass (approx 2000ft up) recorded a gust of 109mph

Down where the people live it was also windy, with gusts recorded to:

105mph at Tulloch Bridge
89mph at Inverbervie (Aberdeenshire)
87mph at Dunstaffnage (Argyll)
86mph at Tiree (west coast island - before it stopped reporting as the strongest winds approached)
85mph at South Uist (Hebridies)
84mph at Salsburgh (inland Clyde Valley, with a mean of 59mph)
79mph at Drumalbin (inland S Lanarkshire, mean of 53mph)
76mph at Dundrennan (Dumfies & Galloway)
71mph at Glasgow Bishopton (mean of 34mph)
69mph at Edinburgh Gogarbank (mean of 40mph)

Despite occuring during the day, no fatalities were reported.See BBC link:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-16079849

[Simon Culling]

As the depression moved away northeastwards into the northern North Sea very strong N-NW winds buffeted the far NE of Scotland and the Northern Isles (Orkeny + Shetland) in the early hours of Friday (9th) morning with gusts to 98mph on Foula and 92mph on Fair Isle. Reported means and gusts at MetO sites were:

Kirkwall 63mph gusting 87mph (Orkney)
Rosehearty 60mph gusting 81mph (Aberdeenshire)
Stornoway 56mph gusting 85mph (Outer Hebridies)
Wick Airport 55mph gusting 84mph (Caithness)
Lerwick 55mpg gusting 77mph (Shetland)

It was also cold with frequent sleet and snow showers....not a pleasamt night to be out and about.

Here in Milton Keynes the cold front passed through on Thursday (8th) evening during the rush hour with 10 minutes of absolutely torrential rain + hail and gusts to 40/45mph and a temperature drop form 12*C to 7*C in a few minutes, but no damage in this area...apart from a few twigs and branches off the trees. it has been much cooler since the frontal passage with slight frosts on both Friday and Saturday mornings. A few rain and hail showers yesterday (Friday) afternoon but today has been dry and mostly sunny with a max of just 5*C.

The Met Office have already issued advance warnings for severe gales or even storm force winds next Tuesday and Friday, but this time for the southern half of the UK....the jet stream is certainly very strong at the moment and warmer than normal North Atlantic SST's are providing the energy for some very active weather systems to develop in the next 7-10 days. We will have to hold onto our hats...

[Simon Culling]

The first of the forecast depressions is affecting the UK at the moment, although the Met Office are not duly concerned with this one. They are forecasting a lot of rain (50-60mm+ in Wales and SW England) and wind gusts to 70mph along the south coast (of England) tonight (Mon/Tues 12th/13th Dec) and in the NW of the UK tomorrow afternoon and evening. The depression was 500nm west of the Hebrides (NW Scot) at 1800GMT today (Monday) with a central pressure of 952mb and is forecast to be approaching NW Scotland at 945mb by 1200GMT Tuesday with quite a tight gradient on its SW flank. I think we will see more than 70mph in the NW tomorrow.

The second depression due Thurs/Fri is causing a lot of headaches for the models as they flip flop from one solution to another, but the current consensus is for a deep low around 945/950mb crossing Scotland or Northern England giving a very windy day over the UK. The Met Office are not commiting themselves yet, but developments are dependent on the phasing of the surface low with a sharpening upper trough moving quickly eastward out of Canada at present. When phasing occurs rapid deepening is a distinct possibility even over land.....could be an interesting few days.

Currently (9pm Monday) a thoroughly wet and windy evening here in Milton Keynes as I run to the pub to watch the second half of Chelsea V Manchester City.

CET for December was 5.5*C (+0.6*C) up to the 11th and is likely to edge down a little over the next week. The EWR was 26mm up to the 10th, a little below the running monthly average, but this is likely to move above this line in the next few days!

[Manukau heads obs]

weather stations to the north of Scotland have recorded 947hpa in the last few hours!
(rising again now..the low passed right over them....is there still another one to cross over central UK?)

[Simon Culling]

Hello Brian. The lowest pressures I could find were 944mb at Benbecula and 945.7mb at South Uist Range, both from the 1400GMT hourly obs. The low was shown at 946mb approaching the Hebrides on the 1200GMT Met Office chart, but probably bottomed out at around 943mb in the afternoon.

It provided a windy night on the south coast of England into Tuesday morning, with gusts recorded as high as 83mph at Hurst Castle (Hampshire).

Today has been cool and windy across the whole of the UK with mostly W to SW winds and plenty of showers with hail, snow and thunder in places. It was a little windier in the NW than was predicted.....gusts to 86mph at Malin Head (north coast of Eire) and 78mph at Port Ellen (Islay).

Here in Milton Keynes the o/night rain cleared away but not before the temperature lifted to 11*C in the early hours, falling quickly around dawn to 4-5*C and staying there for the rest of the day. Some showers fed inland from the Bristol Channel and turned to heavy wet snow in MK during the late afternoon giving us an unexpected temporary sprinkling of snow on the cars.

The low expected over the UK thurs/fri is giving the forecasters a few headaches and is now expected to be a much weaker feature crossing southern England with plenty of rain but letting France have the strong winds instead....that will teach them for stiffing us over the Euro treaty.

[Manukau heads obs]

we dont see 945 hpa lows in these parts very often
(sometimes you do see them diving SE in southern ocean between Aus and NZ)

[Orion]

Tricky conditions altogether:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... entry.html

[stepr]

Reports suggest 2011 will come in second warmest on record according to press reports aided by the Met-office. There is a chance it might come in 3rd to 5th warmest once the Met-office have done their verifications but preliminary statistic suggest 2011 to be the second warmest on record.

[Tornado Tim]

Reports suggest 2011 will come in second warmest on record according to press reports aided by the Met-office. There is a chance it might come in 3rd to 5th warmest once the Met-office have done their verifications but preliminary statistic suggest 2011 to be the second warmest on record.

Im not surprised my relatives in Holland are getting Hi temps to 13°C! Of note some roses have come out in flower as well due to the abnormally warm temps..

[stepr]

Lots in flower here Tim, still summer bedding going strong!

That looks like it'll be threatened however as some colder weather looks like appearing for this weekend. Some frosts, typically around -2 or -3C over Northern England, and -1C and -2C further south, so this will be the first significant frost for many this winter/year.

[stepr]

The UK, like Europe has been under the grip of a cold spell in the past week or two. Although the cold and snow here is nothing compared to on the continent, it has affected many, and yesterday morning, the coldest temperature of the winter were achieved. Rather harsh frosts too, with an astonishing official -15.6C recorded at a station in Holbeach. There were some amateur weather stations, the pick of the bunch was Chesham in southeast England with -18.3C.

On the other hands Scotland and Northern Ireland have been enjoying relatively mild weather, as the 'tables turn', with regard to the UK weather.

The cold spell is coming to an end, and temperatures look like getting milder, something more akin to the seasonal average.

[tgsnoopy]

Interesting to see the burning wind turbine in the photo above is facing the other way to the others. Maybe running in reverse is damaging to them?

[SimonMK]

My computer has been out of action for a couple of months due to a failed hard drive, so I have not been able to report on the interesting cold spell we have recently had. I will endeavour to add a few facts and figures over the next couple of weeks. The really cold air stayed further to our east over mainland Europe and the west of the UK remained surprisingly mild. There were some significant temperature contrasts across the UK during the cold spell that lasted from Saturday 28th January to Monday 13th February.

I had to reregister under a different username as I could not remember my password and could not find a way to contact the administrator.....the email address bounced back, unfortunately.

[SimonMK]

It has been a generally mild and dry winter so far in the UK and more so in the SE, despite a cold first half of February.

December 2011 CET 6.0*C (+1.3*C), EWR 113mm (119% of average)
January 2012 CET 5.4*C (+1.6*C), EWR 67mm (74% of average)
Feb 2012 (up to the 19th) CET 2.3*C (-1.4*C), EWR 22mm (approx 50% of average)

The forecast is for a significant warm up for the next two days with at least 15-16*C possible in some spring sunshine for Thursday + Friday here in the southern half of the UK.

[stepr]

A tale of two halves this February, first half cold with a mean CET not far off 0C, and temperature as low as -15C, second half very mild, still relatively dry though, with temperature as high as 18C.

A month of two halves is not uncommon, it occurs frequently, however this month has been particularly extreme in this context.

Current CET is +3.5C at last update?.

My current mean is +4.7C

[SimonMK]

The weather did indeed turn very mild for the time of year on Thursday (23rd Feb), with the cloud breaking in central and eastern England to give enough sunshine to lift the temperature to 17-18*C in many places. Highest temperatures recorded at Met Office sites were:

18.7*C at Coleshill (nr Birmingham)
18.3*C at Market Bosworth (Leicestershire)
18.2*C at East Malling (Kent), Santon Downham (Suffolk) and Shoeburyness (Essex)
17.7*C at Holbeach (Lincs)

Here in Milton Keynes the low cloud cleared around 9am but a sheet of Ac persisted until lunchtime, but plenty of warm afternoon sunshine lifted the temperature to a balmy 15-16*C.

Incidently, the record maximum temperature for February is 19.7*C set at Greenwich Observatory on 13th February 1998. It is expected to be very warm again this coming Tuesday (28th Feb) especially in the NE of England and eastern Scotland with the Scottish February record of 17.9*C (set on 22nd February 1897 at Aberdeen) under threat.

[SimonMK]

Looking back at January, not a great deal happened, except for a major gale in Scotland very early in the month. See the link at the Met Office:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ ... 2_janwind/

In the south of the UK we enjoyed a four day spell of clear and sunny, but frosty weather, from Friday 13th to Monday 16th, with wall to wall sunshine (up to 7 hours) and daytime max's of around 4-5*C after overnight lows in the region of -4/-5*C. As there was no snow cover, the overnight lows were not too bad, but the pretty frost made up for the cold.

Lowest temperatures recorded were:

-8.1*C at South Newington (Oxon) on the 17th
-7.4*C at Benson (Oxon) on the 14th
-6.8*C at Pershore (Worcs) on the 14th
-6.5*C at Leconfield (Humberside) on the 15th

Without a snow cover, a low of less than -10*C is difficult to reach in southern England.

[SimonMK]

Today was another very mild day for the end of February, particularly as predicted for NE England and the east of Scotland. With a high centred over France (1028mb) we are drawing air up from south of the Azores on the west side of the UK and this is passing over Scotland, and combined with the fohn effect is providing the high temperatures on the east coast. Max temperatures today (Tuesday 28th) were:

17.4*C at Durham
17.2*C at Aberdeen Dyce Airport
16.6*C at Boulmer (Northumberland)

Dyce is an interesting case. The fohn kicked-in overnight with a spectacular rise in temperature in the early hours of the morning as displayed in these hourly observations:

02:00hrs, WNW at 2mph, 9.9*C
03:00hrs, SW at 2mph, 14.3*C
04:00hrs, SW at 13mph, 16.1*C
05:00hrs, SW at 10mph, 15.8*C

The temperature stayed above 15*C for the rest of the day, peaking at 17*C in the afternoon before falling away.

[Orion]

That is interesting I hadn't realised that anywhere in the UK would experience a foehn effect: is this caused by the air rising over the Highlands? and does the west coast experience higher rainfall because of this?
Lucky Aberdeen, having the mild temps!
Hope the Spring is kind to you.