Tropical Cyclone Giovanna

[03Stormchaser]

Tropical Cyclone Giovanna looks like its going to be making a direct hit on Madagascar:

image1.gif

987
wtxs31 pgtw 130300
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone 12s (giovanna) warning nr 009//
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 12s (giovanna) warning nr 009
01 active tropical cyclone in southio
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only
---
warning position:
130000z --- near 18.2s 54.1e
movement past six hours - 260 degrees at 14 kts
position accurate to within 020 nm
position based on eye fixed by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 125 kt, gusts 150 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 050 nm northeast quadrant
055 nm southeast quadrant
055 nm southwest quadrant
050 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 115 nm northeast quadrant
125 nm southeast quadrant
125 nm southwest quadrant
115 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 195 nm northeast quadrant
205 nm southeast quadrant
220 nm southwest quadrant
210 nm northwest quadrant
repeat posit: 18.2s 54.1e
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
131200z --- 18.5s 51.3e
Max sustained winds - 130 kt, gusts 160 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 050 nm northeast quadrant
055 nm southeast quadrant
055 nm southwest quadrant
050 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 115 nm northeast quadrant
125 nm southeast quadrant
125 nm southwest quadrant
115 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 195 nm northeast quadrant
205 nm southeast quadrant
220 nm southwest quadrant
210 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 24 hr posit: 260 deg/ 12 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
140000z --- 18.8s 48.8e
Max sustained winds - 105 kt, gusts 130 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
vector to 36 hr posit: 250 deg/ 13 kts
---
36 hrs, valid at:
141200z --- 19.7s 46.2e
Max sustained winds - 075 kt, gusts 090 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
vector to 48 hr posit: 250 deg/ 13 kts
---
extended outlook:
48 hrs, valid at:
150000z --- 20.6s 43.5e
Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 020 nm northeast quadrant
020 nm southeast quadrant
020 nm southwest quadrant
020 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant
075 nm southeast quadrant
075 nm southwest quadrant
060 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 72 hr posit: 235 deg/ 10 kts
---
72 hrs, valid at:
160000z --- 22.8s 39.7e
Max sustained winds - 060 kt, gusts 075 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
030 nm southeast quadrant
030 nm southwest quadrant
030 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 070 nm northeast quadrant
085 nm southeast quadrant
085 nm southwest quadrant
070 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 96 hr posit: 265 deg/ 06 kts
---
long range outlook:
---
96 hrs, valid at:
170000z --- 23.0s 37.0e
Max sustained winds - 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over water
vector to 120 hr posit: 270 deg/ 06 kts
---
120 hrs, valid at:
180000z --- 22.9s 34.3e
Max sustained winds - 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over land
---
remarks:
130300z position near 18.3s 53.4e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 12s (giovanna), located approximately 400 nm
east of Antananarivo, Madagascar, had tracked west-southwestward at
14 knots over the past six hours. Animated infrared satellite
imagery shows the system has reintensified coincident with the
emergence of a highly symmetrical 40-nm diameter eye. A 130000z SSMI
microwave image shows the eye is enveloped by a continuous ring of
ultra-deep convection, which is in turn surrounded by a concentric
ring of shallow reflectivities, characteristic of intense annular
cyclones. The initial position was placed with high confidence over
the eye feature and the initial intensity was based on Dvorak
estimates from pgtw and fmee. Upper level analysis indicates the
cyclone has formed its own mesoscale anticyclone that is providing
excellent radial outflow. Tc 12s is expected to continue tracking
along the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge extension to the
south. It will make landfall over the central eastern coast of
Madagascar shortly before tau 24, then exit into the Mozambique
Channel by tau 48 before making a secondary and final landfall into
southern Mozambique. The available numerical guidance is in close
agreement with the exception of GFDN that brings the vortex poleward
after tau 72. This track forecast is in line with consensus. Maximum
significant wave height at 130000z is 28 feet. Next warnings at
131500z and 140300z./

Makes Jasmine look like a little sister!

[Orion]

Very interesting: I suppose these events are not unusual at this season in this area? Must say I don't often hear about weather in the western Indian Ocean.

[03Stormchaser]

Latest sat image

418398_230982056994039_218869288205316_492484_532041183_n.jpeg

Don't think they are uncommon but this one is on track to hit the capital and could cause a huge amount of damage.