Tropical Cyclone Daphne

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Nev
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Tropical Cyclone Daphne

Unread post by Nev »

Nadi and Vanuatu Met seem a little more excited this morn than JTWC did last night about the developing TD just NW of Vanuatu...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 31/1413 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD19F CENTRE [1003HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S
165.4E AT 311200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATIONS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD19F MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED AND CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. TD19F LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS
STEERED SOUTHEASTWARDS BY NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500 HPA.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREED ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
ABPW10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZMAR-010600ZAPR2012//

RMKS/
...2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
...B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
...(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.0S 161.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 570 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POORLY DEFINED
LLCC, WITHIN A REGION OF BROAD TURNING. CONVECTION REMAINS DEEPEST
ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TURNING; HOWEVER
CONVECTION HAS NOT STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A REGION OF GOOD
DIVERGENCE WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
LLCC. VWS IS CURRENTLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS, AND IS ENHANCING THE UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 27 TO 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: Sth Pacific-Coral Sea TC Season - 2011/12

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yes, it now looks to me like the one near Vanuatu will the one that will finally ramp up fully to a full blown TC
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Re: Sth Pacific-Coral Sea TC Season - 2011/12

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Starting to take shape now...
Vanuatu Meteorological Services

Information Number 2 on a Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 5:57am VUT Sunday 1 April 2012.

At 5:00am local time, a tropical low (1000 hPa) was located near 14.7S 162.6E... This is about 430 KM west of Santo. The system is moving east northeast at 6 KM/HR. Winds at the centre of the system estimated at 40 to 60 KM/HR. The potential for the tropical low to become a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours and move towards the Vanuatu group is moderate.

Code: Select all

 Forecast Positions
Date and Time                       Position                  Intensity
+06 hours (11am, 1 Apr)           14.8S, 164.0E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5pm, 1 Apr)            15.3S, 165.1E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11pm, 1 Apr)           16.0S, 165.8E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5am, 2 Apr)            16.5S, 166.6E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5pm, 2 Apr)            17.2S, 169.7E            50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5am, 3 Apr)            18.1S, 172.1E            60 KTS (110 KM/HR) 
Heavy rainfall is expected over Northern and Central Vanuatu, and will spread to other parts of the group within the next 24 hours. A severe Weather Warning [Heavy Rainfall] is current for northern and central Vanuatu. A marine Gale and strong wind warning is current for all open waters of Vanuatu.

The Vanuatu National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) advises that there are no coloured Alerts at present, but that people must be prepared on what actions to take should the system develops further and move closer.
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Re: Sth Pacific-Coral Sea TC Season - 2011/12

Unread post by Nev »

The Vanuatu TD has picked up speed. Vanuatu Met have, however, lowered the expected intensities on their 2-day forecast chart...
Information Number 3 on a Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 12:13pm VUT Sunday 1 April 2012.

At 11:00am local time, a tropical low (1002 hPa) was located near 15.4S 164.0E... This is about 290 KM west of Santo. The system is east southeast at 28 KM/HR. Winds at the centre of the system estimated at 40 to 60 KM/HR. The potential for the tropical low to become a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours and move towards Vanuatu group is moderate.

Code: Select all

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                       Position                  Intensity
+06 hours (5pm, 1 Apr)            15.2S, 164.4E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+12 hours (11pm, 1 Apr)           15.6S, 165.8E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+18 hours (5am, 2 Apr)            16.3S, 167.7E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+24 hours (11am, 2 Apr)           17.0S, 169.4E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+36 hours (11pm, 2 Apr)           19.7S, 173.4E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+48 hours (11am, 3 Apr)           23.3S, 177.6E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 01/0148 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD19F CENTRE [999HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S
166.4E AT 010000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR/VIS IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATIONS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD19F MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED AND CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. TD19F LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. TD19F IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
DECREASING SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARDS BY
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500 HPA. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3
WRAP YEILDS T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. FT BASED ON DT, MET AND PT AGREE.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
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Re: Sth Pacific-Coral Sea TC Season - 2011/12

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 01/0800 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD19F CENTRE [997HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S
166.4E AT 010600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATIONS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD19F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED AND CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC. LLCC DIFFICULT
TO LOCATE. TD19F LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARDS BY
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500 HPA. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3
WRAP GIVING DT=2.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO
30 HOURS IS HIGH.
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Re: Sth Pacific-Coral Sea TC Season - 2011/12

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 01/1948 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD19F CENTRE [997HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6S
169.1E AT 011800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATIONS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD19F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED AND CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. TD19F LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARDS BY
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO
500 HPA. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4 WRAP GIVING DT=2.5, MET=2.5 AND
PT=2.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A CYCLONE WITHIN 6 TO 12
HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD19F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 020200 UTC.

Code: Select all

 Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 6 issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 6:19am VUT Monday 2 April 2012 for Shefa and Tafea Provinces.

At 5:00am local time today, the Tropical Low was located at 17.9 degrees South 169.3 degrees East... This is about 105 KM east southeast of Efate and 95 KM north northeast of Erromango. The Tropical Low moved in a southeast direction at 41 KM/HR in the past 6 hours.

The central pressure of the system is estimated at 995 hPa. Winds close to the centre estimated at 55 KM/HR, possibly increasing to 75 KM/HR in the next 6 to 12 hours once it moves east southeast and away from the northern islands of Vanuatu. The Tropical Low is forecast to be at 21.3 degrees South 173.6 degrees East within the next 06 to 12 hours. The potential for the system to become a tropical cyclone in the next 12 hours is moderate to high.  

Damaging Gale force winds of 70 KM/HR will continue to affect Malampa, Shefa and Tafea provinces. Winds over Sanma and Penama will weaken as the system moves further southeast.    

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                       Position                  Intensity
+06 hours (11am, 2 Apr)           19.5S, 171.3E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5pm, 2 Apr)            21.3S, 173.6E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11pm, 2 Apr)           23.5S, 175.6E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5am, 3 Apr)            26.4S, 177.4E            50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5pm, 3 Apr)            30.1S, 179.2E            50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5am, 4 Apr)            33.8S, 179.1W            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)

Very rough seas with heavy swells expected over northern and central waters of Vanuatu. Heavy rainfall and flooding is expected. The Vanuatu National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) advises people that Blue Alert remains for Shefa and Tafea Provinces. For action on this alert call the National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) on 22699 or 23035. 

People over Shefa and Tafea Provinces and Southern Penama and Malampa Provinces should listen to all Radio Outlets to get the latest information on this system. 
Fiji Met's media track-map issued yesterday arvo.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Daphne

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TC Daphne was named by RSMC Nadi this arvo...
GALE WARNING 019 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 02/0159 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DAPHNE CENTRE [995HPA} CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.8 SOUTH 172.7 EAST AT 020100 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 19.8S 172.7E at 020100 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.9S 175.7W AT 021200 UTC
AND NEAR 25.9S 179.4W AT 030000 UTC

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ


THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Daphne

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 02/0254 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DAPHNE CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 172.7E
AT 020100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
18 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION INCREASED
WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTRE BUT REMAINS GOOD ELSEWHERE. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARDS BY
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP
GIVING DT=3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELCIUS. ...
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Daphne

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Daphne upgraded to Cat 2 earlier this morn and expected to retain TC status for at least the next 24 hours. Currently crossing 25°S into RSMC Wgtn's AOR.

Snips of RSMC Nadi's final advisories...
Special Weather Bulletin Number THIRTEEN FOR FIJI ON TC DAPHNE
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 4:05am on Tuesday the 3rd of April 2012
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ...

TROPICAL CYCLONE DAPHNE CAT 2 CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 24
DECIMAL 3 SOUTH 177 DECIMAL 5 EAST OR ABOUT 730 KILOMETRES SOUTH OF
NADI AT 3AM TODAY. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO
HAVE AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS OF 75 KM/HR. DAPHNE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 50 KM/HR. ...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 02/1410 UTC 2012 UTC.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION INCREASED
WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTRE BUT REMAINS GOOD ELSEWHERE. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARDS BY
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.7 WRAP
GIVING DT=3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON MET THUS YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. ...
STORM WARNING 021 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 02/1358 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DAPHNE CENTRE 992HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.9 SOUTH 176.2 EAST AT 021200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.9S 176.2E AT 021200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 27 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 030600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 27.6S 180.0E AT 030000 UTC
AND NEAR 30.5S 177.5W AT 031200 UTC.


PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITY FOR FUTURE WARNINGS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DAPHNE
WILL REST WITH WELLINGTON.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Daphne

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

sure is moving fast
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Daphne

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Its quite well east of us but gets into high latitudes,looks less rain than originally envisaged.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Daphne

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MetService - Oceanic Warnings

STORM WARNING 044
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone DAPHNE [985hPa] centre was located near 25.6 South 179.2 East at 021800 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 25.6S 179.2E at 021800 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast 30 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 300 nautical miles of centre in the northeast quadrant and within 240 nautical miles of centre in the southeast quadrant and within 90 nautical miles of centre in the southwest quadrant and within 240 nautical miles of centre in the northwest quadrant.

Forecast position near 30.2S 176.9W at 030600 UTC
and near 33.7S 172.1W at 031800 UTC.

Issued at 7:31am Tuesday 3 Apr 2012
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Daphne

Unread post by Nev »

Hmm... MetService still have Daphne at Cat 2. However, it looks like she's undergoing ETT this morn. Convection has been displaced by shear and with SST's at around 25C, I'd say she's pretty much a 'gone-burger'.
MetService - Oceanic Warnings

STORM WARNING 052
This affects ocean areas: SUBTROPIC and PACIFIC
Tropical Cyclone DAPHNE [985hPa] centre was located near 27.8 South 178.0 West at 030000 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 27.8S 178.0W at 030000 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast 25 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre in the sector from north through east to southeast and within 30 nautical miles of centre in the sector from southeast through southwest to north.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 240 nautical miles of centre in the southeast quadrant and within 120 nautical miles of centre in the sector from south through west to northwest and within 300 nautical miles of centre in the sector from northwest through northeast to east.

Forecast position near 31.6S 174.0W at 031200 UTC
and near 34.0S 170.0W at 040000 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 044.

Issued at 1:22pm Tuesday 3 Apr 2012
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Daphne

Unread post by Nev »

MS have her down to Cat 1 this evening.
MetService - Oceanic Warnings

GALE WARNING 059
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone DAPHNE [986hPa] centre was located near 29.8 South 174.5 West at 030600 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 29.8S 174.5W at 030600 UTC.
Cyclone is moving eastsoutheast 35 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre easing to 40 knots by 031800 UTC.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 180 nautical miles of centre in the southeast quadrant and within 90 nautical miles of centre in the sector from south through west to northwest and within 240 nautical miles of centre in the sector from northwest through northeast to east.

Forecast position near 33.4S 170.9W at 031800 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 052.

Issued at 7:15pm Tuesday 3 Apr 2012
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Daphne

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

she declocked this morning, i.e windshear toppled the cloud tops off , displaced to the NE of the LLCC
Last edited by Manukau heads obs on Wed 04/04/2012 07:42, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Daphne

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Yes, convection totally displaced by around midnight last, when MS relegated Daphne to ex-TC status (note, the US Navy still had her with central mean-winds of 35-40 kts with gusts to 45-50 kts.
MetService - Oceanic Warnings

GALE WARNING 070
This affects ocean areas: SUBTROPIC and PACIFIC
AT 031200UTC
Low 990hPa, former Cyclone DAPHNE, near 32S 174W moving southeast 25kt.
1. Within 240 nautical miles of low in northern quadrant: Clockwise 40kt.
2. Within 180 nautical miles of low in eastern quadrant: Clockwise 40kt.
Gale areas moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 059.

Issued at 1:13am Wednesday 4 Apr 2012

Code: Select all

 WTPS31 PGTW 031500 
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DAPHNE) WARNING NR 004 
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DAPHNE) WARNING NR 004 
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON TEN-MINUTE AVERAGE 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
--- 
WARNING POSITION: 
031200Z --- NEAR 32.0S 174.0W 
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 25 KTS 
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM 
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE 
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
EXTRATROPICAL 
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
REPEAT POSIT: 32.0S 174.0W 
--- 
FORECASTS: 
12 HRS, VALID AT: 
040000Z --- 36.5S 173.3W 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
EXTRATROPICAL 
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
--- 
REMARKS: 
031500Z POSITION NEAR 33.1S 173.8W. 

AT 040312 TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED 930 NM SSE 
OF SUVA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. 
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF 
REGENERATION.// 
BT 
#0001 
NNNN 
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Nev
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Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf

Re: Tropical Cyclone Daphne

Unread post by Nev »

Nearly 2,000 km in less than 1.5 days - not a bad innings.

The remnants of Daphne this morn..
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