Cold Pool end of week

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 30/06/2004 17:18

Possibility of snow to low levels over the South Island end of the week.
A pool of cold very unstable air looks likely to cross the country.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 30/06/2004 17:20

When will it clear?

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 30/06/2004 17:44

Look how quick it shows it going SW again within a 24 hour period of NW

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 30/06/2004 19:41

I notice Met Service do not mention snow at all in there severe weather outlook.

When will it clear?

Isn't ' Jafa' supposed to mean 'just another fine anticyclone'

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 30/06/2004 19:51

Just all freezing aucklanders

NZstorm wrote: Isn't ' Jafa' supposed to mean 'just another fine anticyclone'

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 30/06/2004 20:32

Possibility of snow to low levels over the South Island end of the week.
A pool of cold very unstable air looks likely to cross the country.

I notice Met Service do not mention snow at all in there severe weather outlook.

No, they just predicted a 'cooler' southerly for Saturday. But then again, MetService hasn't been very accurate in predicting snow levels so far this winter - falls have usually ended up to rather lower levels than predicted.

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Wed 30/06/2004 20:38

We should see some colder conditions saturday and clearing sunday, form looking at the usual models.

Looking good mid next week, a tasmen low may sit over the south island

These warm conditions of late, must mean something is about to happen

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 30/06/2004 20:54

No, they just predicted a 'cooler' southerly for Saturday. But then again, MetService hasn't been very accurate in predicting snow levels so far this winter - falls have usually ended up to rather lower levels than predicted.

Yes Ben, I prefer my forecast to theres.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 30/06/2004 21:36

Yes, it looks wintry on Saturday for the South.

Some good looking Cb moving into the South Tasman today.

I prefer the look of the charts for later next week for snow . For the first time this winter it looks like a good High will get into the South Tasman and that will pull up cold air into low preasure off the South Island East Coast.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 30/06/2004 21:45

The way that would happen is a high actually pushes under the south iland 1035 or more and a low over Canterbury bringing moist air down say and a warm front at its southern perifery

spwill wrote:Yes, it looks wintry on Saturday for the South.

Some good looking Cb moving into the South Tasman today.

I prefer the look of the charts for later next week for snow . For the first time this winter it looks like a good High will get into the South Tasman and that will pull up cold air into low preasure off the South Island East Coast.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 01/07/2004 00:04

BlueSkies Weather are onto it with this forecast for Canterbury

Canterbury
A strong, cold southwesterly change developing on Friday morning with a brief period of rain, then eaisng to a few showers, and clearing by evening. Cold and frosty on Friday night. Snow showers to 800m.
Fine at first on Saturday but another period of cold blustery southwesterlies and wintry showers develop late in the day. Snow showers to 600m.

JohnGaul
NZTS

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Thu 01/07/2004 08:46

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:BlueSkies Weather are onto it with this forecast for Canterbury

Canterbury
A strong, cold southwesterly change developing on Friday morning with a brief period of rain, then eaisng to a few showers, and clearing by evening. Cold and frosty on Friday night. Snow showers to 800m.
Fine at first on Saturday but another period of cold blustery southwesterlies and wintry showers develop late in the day. Snow showers to 600m.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Sorry to disappoint you John, but I'm going to change that forecast today, it now looks as though the flow will be just too WSW on Saturday to push many, if any, showers into Canterbury. Still looking wintry for Southland and Otago though.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Thu 01/07/2004 11:24

Hopefully something happens with these lows about!

On another note, I've just relised I really like that http://www.wunderground.com weather website, the obs are hourly and updated very promtley after the certain hour to be mesured. And it covers most of NZ, great eh!

Just type in NZCH for Chch Airport obs.

Anyone else here use that place for figures etc?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 01/07/2004 12:14

TonyT wrote:
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:BlueSkies Weather are onto it with this forecast for Canterbury

Canterbury
A strong, cold southwesterly change developing on Friday morning with a brief period of rain, then eaisng to a few showers, and clearing by evening. Cold and frosty on Friday night. Snow showers to 800m.
Fine at first on Saturday but another period of cold blustery southwesterlies and wintry showers develop late in the day. Snow showers to 600m.

JohnGaul
NZTS
Sorry to disappoint you John, but I'm going to change that forecast today, it now looks as though the flow will be just too WSW on Saturday to push many, if any, showers into Canterbury. Still looking wintry for Southland and Otago though.

Bugger

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 01/07/2004 13:20

Ditto

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:[
Sorry to disappoint you John, but I'm going to change that forecast today, it now looks as though the flow will be just too WSW on Saturday/quote]

Bugger

JohnGaul
NZTS

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 01/07/2004 22:56

Sorry to disappoint you John, but I'm going to change that forecast today, it now looks as though the flow will be just too WSW on Saturday to push many, if any, showers into Canterbury. Still looking wintry for Southland and Otago though.

In other words, a critical southwesterly flow. Just a small change of wind direction could either mean showers or fine weather to Canterbury. According to UNISYS, more 'critical' cold southwesterlies should return about the middle of next week. Not to mention a brief cold flick tomorrow.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 01/07/2004 23:20

The charts for next week have changed quite a bit and it now looks like next weeks very cold air will come to NZ on a West to SouthWesterly. Otago ski fields should get good snow fall and it will fall to low levels in places exposed to the west-Southwest down South.
Should see some heavy Thundery showers here in Auckland at some stage.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Fri 02/07/2004 06:40

Well surprise surprise whats new

spwill wrote: Should see some heavy Thundery showers here in Auckland at some stage.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 02/07/2004 21:20

Quote:
Sorry to disappoint you John, but I'm going to change that forecast today, it now looks as though the flow will be just too WSW on Saturday to push many, if any, showers into Canterbury. Still looking wintry for Southland and Otago though.

In other words, a critical southwesterly flow. Just a small change of wind direction could either mean showers or fine weather to Canterbury. According to UNISYS, more 'critical' cold southwesterlies should return about the middle of next week. Not to mention a brief cold flick tomorrow.

Looks like the flow should turn southerly tomorrow - I guess it'll be very like today in Chch, with some brief showery periods. But I hear MetService has added a few thunderstorms (for inland) to the forecast.

Not to mention strong winds. But not a very cold outbreak - snow is only forecast to about 900 metres. But we know they haven't exactly had a high rate of accuracy in forecasting snow levels lately.
Another thing, it seems that in strong airflows, the air doesn't have a chance to warm up much as it travels over the country, so freezing levels don't rise much as one travels north. The wind flow over NZ is forecast to be strong tomorrow - snow is forecast to 800 metres in the far south, and to 900 metres in the central North Island.

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Fri 02/07/2004 21:35

Yep maybe another 5-15cm for the ski fields tomorrow.

Next week at this stage looks like having the goods for low level snow, and we could see some wide spread falls

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Fri 02/07/2004 22:07

Yes Ben, I noticed that forecast for inland thunderstorms to, so I take particular interest in that. Things might not happen but it keeps me going!

That Southerly today actually made the temperature rise today, that's how it got to 10, look at this graph of today. It climbs and peaks after lunch when the southerly went through.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 03/07/2004 07:18

But I hear MetService has added a few thunderstorms (for inland)

That wouldn't be a bad forecast in the month of December, but a bit silly for July. If there was a thunder risk in Canterbury today, it would be in the Alps and along the coast.

Yep maybe another 5-15cm for the ski fields tomorrow.

I see Met Service have lowered there snow prediction to 500m for Otago.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sat 03/07/2004 07:59

NZstorm wrote:I see Met Service have lowered there snow prediction to 500m for Otago.

Must have been reading our forecasts...

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Sat 03/07/2004 08:29

Loads of low cloud here after a -3 degree frost over night.

Light breeze from the north west.

Could easily snow here shortly.

Temp -0.3, pressure 1000mb

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 03/07/2004 09:49

Charts since yesterday have been showing the High in the south Tasman mid next week moving north which is no good for snow. Wintry weather moving up from the SW next week looks less likely now.