Canterbury Thunderstorms October the First

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

There could be some.
The potential looks very good acccording to Aaron's showing us of various models for the day on my new laptop.

[mikestormchaser]

Yeah whats nzstorm's opinion on thunderstorms for canterbury tomorrow? certainly seemed good from what we looked at last night, everything matches up right.

[Thunder]

Well I'll look really silly now if things don't happen John. Infact I was the most negative as there is always something that could ruin chances. Cloud cover? A pre frontal northwest flow which does look possible but seems unlikely I think.

Still, it does look good for tomorrow anyway. Look forward to it!

Cheers
Aaron

[Richard]

Yes and i think its my turn for some up my way for a change,ive missed out on all of them so far...and if i dont ...well i'll throw a bloody tantrum

[Thunder]

It does look more like things would happen south of Banks Peninsula, perhaps getting into North Canterbury. Hopefully you don't miss out again Richard but we'll likely head south to start the day, which other way is there? lol.

Cheers

[spwill]

I think watch wind direction and dewpoint tomorrow. The moisture is usually the missing ingredient for storms in Canterbury (east of the Alps) but a NE breeze will bring off shore moisture in as was the case with the last two thunder events in Chch this Spring.

[Storm Struck]

In my opinion i think tomorrow is a very decent set up maybe even severe thunderstorms in an area between just south of Ashburton up to about Rolleston.
Severe i mean as in 20+mm hail i think the 5-15mm hail MS have is still abit low especially for this area, storms tomorrow will be slow moving due to the lighter variable winds and coastal E-NE winds look very likly especially about the coast.
With that slow nature in cell development generally the ice particles can stay up longer in the cloud therefore larger hail, thats my theory anyway.
I know its only still reasonably early in the season but i would be almost tempted to have a high risk in this area i mentioned above, and a moderate risk over the remainder of Canterbury.
We have seen simular set ups like this before and going by this ( sometimes in severe thunderstorm occasions ) the strongest storms are in this area, I think September 4th was simular but definatly January 18th 2009 comes to mind.
Time will tell, i will be out able to chase from 2pm onwards im getting away early from work bugger it .

[03Stormchaser]

Models are showing a light NW before the change, wouldn't read to much into that as in the past models have indicated such light winds before but on the day a NE has prevailed. Cloud cover shouldnt be a problem, upper air is very cold, Negative Li's and impressive TT figures....

Im picking the area around Ashburton to be the most at risk atm. Tthe change will move up and most likely hit chch with a possibly Tstorm in late afternoon/evening I don't think it will as intense here as Sept 4th

[NZstorm]

Its not a September 4 type set up and I think the time of year makes it a bit iffy.

The upper air will be unstable, there just needs to be some convergence with some moisture.
So its a question of the coastal breeze as always with Cantab storms.

[Richard]

A good looking spiralling tough moving ENE toward central NZ this morning

No wind here ATM and hoping the NW wind doesn't come up again too.

[03Stormchaser]

Should be a big chase day today, looking at heading south early afternoon to get into position. I dont think surface moisture should be a problem. Sorry Richard dont think storms will make it that far north

[Lacertae]

Question : what is preventing MS from upgrading the risk to high ?

Anyway, I'll check with my manager about some time off and cross the Rakaia before 15:00. I wasn't gonna chase today but how can I resist ...
A shame I will only go get a proper tripod on Thursday !

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[03Stormchaser]

Tbh I think it should be high risk, have thought this for a while now. Today looks better in the models than sept 4th from memory.

[Razor]

So far so good in ChCh, big blue dome morning with scattered Cu buildups starting towards the peninsula and a light NE underway... so the ingrediants are in place

[Orion]

Interesting line of clouds observed to the south, maybe near Rangitata Mouth. Just watching - am in Ashburton for next several hours.

[Dean.]

Hoping something happens before work at 3pm....I must change shifts!
Blue skies light winds here.

[moylanr]

Not expecting any precipitation for CHC until after 8 pm.

[Lacertae]

Back from work, the forecast is now for moderate risk of severe tstorm ! Well forecasted Jase, slow moving cells on the menu.

[carrot]

Severe thunderstorm Watch out now

[CWUweather]

Metservice are reasonably confident on this by looks of it. but i have to work tonight so stuff it

[Richard]

Should be a big chase day today, looking at heading south early afternoon to get into position. I dont think surface moisture should be a problem. Sorry Richard dont think storms will make it that far north

Dam ,its a NW wind here which is not good,that low just moving onto Westland ATM so we'll see.

[Richard]

Metservice are reasonably confident on this by looks of it. but i have to work tonight so stuff it

I started my work early just so i been home for the afternoon

[Richard]

First sign of cloud developments to my east

[Orion]

Posting from Ashburton, where it's clouded up a lot from the northwest or west over last hour - no sunshine at moment; one large fascinating bright-edged cloud expanding nearby; smaller view of sky here than at home! Will keep watching.

[moylanr]

Was going to post attached data showing it starting to cloud over in Christchurch 1/2 an hour ago, went outside to check "the real world" and saw about 5/8 cloud cover, come back and find Solar Radiation has sky rocketed to over 1000 W/m^2. Back down to 345 now.

121001.pdf