Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct

[Razor]

Wow, this would be some system. Still early and with a system like this could change course rapidly, but compared to yesterday they have it coming north further than yesterday

**edited title to include Friday

[CWUweather]

Yeh, was just thinking a new thread was necessary, i came on here and the was one hahahah..... i completely agree, if this stay on track and and continues to rapidly deepen we could be in for a wet, windy and somewhat cold weekend in some area... i mean Weatherwatch.co.nz are predicting this to drop form 1000hpa to 975hpa in 24 hours... huge drop in air pressure... could be a very interesting weekend

[Manukau heads obs]

looks like a doozey at this stage

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I don't think things will get swept away from this system.

[Paul Mallinson]

I am on days off at the moment, but from what I can see on the internet, the low that develops in the Tasman on Friday looks rather like the low we just had over the last few days i.e. a rapidly deepening low in the Tasman with the frontal rainband (with some strong winds) crossing the country on Saturday and a threat of snow in the east of the South Island from the undercutting colder air.
I can't see any need to overblow this event (excuse the pun!) by talking about a weather bomb.

Paul

[Razor]

Thats why I put it in inverted commas Paul.

Having said that, models have been nearing the 24hpa drop in 24 hrs criteria....

[Paul Mallinson]

But if it all happens out in the Tasman sea it doesn't matter much to the public of New Zealand.

Paul

[Tornado Tim]

Looks like there is considerable upper level divergence which will cause a more rapid deepening of low. The Jetstream is expected to intensify and strengthen over the northern half of the Tasman and will play a key role in potential cyclogensis later on this week.
Not surprising that the models are picking a potential drop of 24hpa in 24 hours as forecasts are indicating a very favorable upper level environment over the Tasman.

Id keep an eye on the models but I would'nt be concerned at this stage.....

[Manukau heads obs]

certainly the right time of year for this to happen
just like the good old days of the 80's

[Razor]

But if it all happens out in the Tasman sea it doesn't matter much to the public of New Zealand.

Paul

Yes Paul but this is a forum of weather nuts, not the general public of NZ. Even if it happens in the middle of Timbucktoo its liable to attract our attention here!

[Paul Mallinson]

Fair enough.

Paul

[NZstorm]

Some of the warmest upper level temps we have seen in a while modelled with this system.

500mb 7am Saturday

[spwill]

A wet and windy Saturday for Auckland but it will be warm, dewpoint temperatures up to 16C.

[NZstorm]

Looks like a warm advective snow event a good possibility for the inland South Island with heavy snow on the cards for inland Canterbury/Otago.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Last few runs I have been thinking some parts of CHCH could see 50mm from this system coming. However, this run through tonight is much less impressive. I would be going for 20-25mm at the moment. See if it swings back or not.

[Richard]

20 -25mm would be great,thats on top of the 21mm we had here a couple of days ago

[Razor]

still looks a doozy, aimed more at Canterbury now

[Michael]

Doesnt look anything unusual xcept the usual wind at the backend in auckland.

[NZstorm]

Accumulated precip for this event according to the GFS.

A South Island event as far as precip.

No doubt some blustery wind for the North Island. Gales in exposed areas.

[CWUweather]

Between 10am Saturday and 10pm Saturday is looking heavy... possibly even torrential rain.... judging by Metservice rain maps anyway

[Tornado Tim]

A nice 70 to 80k jet over the North Island and northern South Island expected in 36hours or so.

[Manukau heads obs]

looking like could be a hum dinger NW wind here
all welcome to come out to the light house for a severe gale weather meet saturday arvo

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Still quite some variation on how this is going to affect Christchurch. Was looking at 50mm + in the two earlier runs today but now back down to around 20-25mm again, fairly similar to last night. See what happens overnight, I think the morning one will be a telling story.

[Chris Raine]

The models have changed got the rain back over North Otago this morning . Just overcast at the moment

[Manukau heads obs]

the low should look much better by the end of today I susepect as it picks up warm moist air over the tasman