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Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Tue 09/10/2012 10:22
by Razor
Wow, this would be some system. Still early and with a system like this could change course rapidly, but compared to yesterday they have it coming north further than yesterday
**edited title to include Friday
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 13-14 Oct
Posted: Tue 09/10/2012 12:02
by CWUweather
Yeh, was just thinking a new thread was necessary, i came on here and the was one hahahah..... i completely agree, if this stay on track and and continues to rapidly deepen we could be in for a wet, windy and somewhat cold weekend in some area... i mean Weatherwatch.co.nz are predicting this to drop form 1000hpa to 975hpa in 24 hours... huge drop in air pressure... could be a very interesting weekend
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 13-14 Oct
Posted: Tue 09/10/2012 14:38
by Manukau heads obs
looks like a doozey at this stage
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Tue 09/10/2012 17:48
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
I don't think things will get swept away from this system.
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Tue 09/10/2012 18:32
by Paul Mallinson
I am on days off at the moment, but from what I can see on the internet, the low that develops in the Tasman on Friday looks rather like the low we just had over the last few days i.e. a rapidly deepening low in the Tasman with the frontal rainband (with some strong winds) crossing the country on Saturday and a threat of snow in the east of the South Island from the undercutting colder air.
I can't see any need to overblow this event (excuse the pun!) by talking about a weather bomb.
Paul
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Tue 09/10/2012 18:34
by Razor
Thats why I put it in inverted commas Paul.
Having said that, models have been nearing the 24hpa drop in 24 hrs criteria....
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Tue 09/10/2012 18:51
by Paul Mallinson
But if it all happens out in the Tasman sea it doesn't matter much to the public of New Zealand.
Paul
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Tue 09/10/2012 19:04
by Tornado Tim
Looks like there is considerable upper level divergence which will cause a more rapid deepening of low. The Jetstream is expected to intensify and strengthen over the northern half of the Tasman and will play a key role in potential cyclogensis later on this week.
Not surprising that the models are picking a potential drop of 24hpa in 24 hours as forecasts are indicating a very favorable upper level environment over the Tasman.
Id keep an eye on the models but I would'nt be concerned at this stage.....
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Tue 09/10/2012 19:50
by Manukau heads obs
certainly the right time of year for this to happen
just like the good old days of the 80's
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Tue 09/10/2012 20:13
by Razor
Paul Mallinson wrote:But if it all happens out in the Tasman sea it doesn't matter much to the public of New Zealand.
Paul
Yes Paul but this is a forum of weather nuts, not the general public of NZ. Even if it happens in the middle of Timbucktoo its liable to attract our attention here!
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Tue 09/10/2012 20:49
by Paul Mallinson
Fair enough.
Paul
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Tue 09/10/2012 20:57
by NZstorm
Some of the warmest upper level temps we have seen in a while modelled with this system.
500mb 7am Saturday
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Wed 10/10/2012 06:15
by spwill
A wet and windy Saturday for Auckland but it will be warm, dewpoint temperatures up to 16C.
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Wed 10/10/2012 06:55
by NZstorm
Looks like a warm advective snow event a good possibility for the inland South Island with heavy snow on the cards for inland Canterbury/Otago.
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Wed 10/10/2012 18:33
by CHCH Weather Chaser
Last few runs I have been thinking some parts of CHCH could see 50mm from this system coming. However, this run through tonight is much less impressive. I would be going for 20-25mm at the moment. See if it swings back or not.
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Wed 10/10/2012 21:23
by Richard
20 -25mm would be great,thats on top of the 21mm we had here a couple of days ago
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Thu 11/10/2012 07:15
by Razor
still looks a doozy, aimed more at Canterbury now
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Thu 11/10/2012 09:24
by Michael
Doesnt look anything unusual xcept the usual wind at the backend in auckland.
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Thu 11/10/2012 10:29
by NZstorm
Accumulated precip for this event according to the GFS.
A South Island event as far as precip.
No doubt some blustery wind for the North Island. Gales in exposed areas.
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Thu 11/10/2012 11:02
by CWUweather
Between 10am Saturday and 10pm Saturday is looking heavy... possibly even torrential rain.... judging by Metservice rain maps anyway
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Thu 11/10/2012 11:02
by Tornado Tim
A nice 70 to 80k jet over the North Island and northern South Island expected in 36hours or so.
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Thu 11/10/2012 14:19
by Manukau heads obs
looking like could be a hum dinger NW wind here
all welcome to come out to the light house for a severe gale weather meet saturday arvo
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Thu 11/10/2012 20:50
by CHCH Weather Chaser
Still quite some variation on how this is going to affect Christchurch. Was looking at 50mm + in the two earlier runs today but now back down to around 20-25mm again, fairly similar to last night. See what happens overnight, I think the morning one will be a telling story.
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Fri 12/10/2012 07:57
by Chris Raine
The models have changed got the rain back over North Otago this morning . Just overcast at the moment
Re: Predicted "Bomb" system 12-14 Oct
Posted: Fri 12/10/2012 09:21
by Manukau heads obs
the low should look much better by the end of today I susepect as it picks up warm moist air over the tasman