NZ Weather Forum

Wow, this would be some system. Still early and with a system like this could change course rapidly, but compared to yesterday they have it coming north further than yesterday

**edited title to include Friday

Yeh, was just thinking a new thread was necessary, i came on here and the was one hahahah..... i completely agree, if this stay on track and and continues to rapidly deepen we could be in for a wet, windy and somewhat cold weekend in some area... i mean Weatherwatch.co.nz are predicting this to drop form 1000hpa to 975hpa in 24 hours... huge drop in air pressure... could be a very interesting weekend

looks like a doozey at this stage

I don't think things will get swept away from this system.

I am on days off at the moment, but from what I can see on the internet, the low that develops in the Tasman on Friday looks rather like the low we just had over the last few days i.e. a rapidly deepening low in the Tasman with the frontal rainband (with some strong winds) crossing the country on Saturday and a threat of snow in the east of the South Island from the undercutting colder air.
I can't see any need to overblow this event (excuse the pun!) by talking about a weather bomb.

Paul

Thats why I put it in inverted commas Paul.

Having said that, models have been nearing the 24hpa drop in 24 hrs criteria....

But if it all happens out in the Tasman sea it doesn't matter much to the public of New Zealand.

Paul

Looks like there is considerable upper level divergence which will cause a more rapid deepening of low. The Jetstream is expected to intensify and strengthen over the northern half of the Tasman and will play a key role in potential cyclogensis later on this week.
Not surprising that the models are picking a potential drop of 24hpa in 24 hours as forecasts are indicating a very favorable upper level environment over the Tasman.

Id keep an eye on the models but I would'nt be concerned at this stage.....

certainly the right time of year for this to happen
just like the good old days of the 80's

Paul Mallinson wrote:But if it all happens out in the Tasman sea it doesn't matter much to the public of New Zealand.

Paul

Yes Paul but this is a forum of weather nuts, not the general public of NZ. Even if it happens in the middle of Timbucktoo its liable to attract our attention here!

Fair enough.

Paul

Some of the warmest upper level temps we have seen in a while modelled with this system.

500mb 7am Saturday

A wet and windy Saturday for Auckland but it will be warm, dewpoint temperatures up to 16C.

Looks like a warm advective snow event a good possibility for the inland South Island with heavy snow on the cards for inland Canterbury/Otago.

Last few runs I have been thinking some parts of CHCH could see 50mm from this system coming. However, this run through tonight is much less impressive. I would be going for 20-25mm at the moment. See if it swings back or not.

20 -25mm would be great,thats on top of the 21mm we had here a couple of days ago

still looks a doozy, aimed more at Canterbury now

Doesnt look anything unusual xcept the usual wind at the backend in auckland.

Accumulated precip for this event according to the GFS.

A South Island event as far as precip.

No doubt some blustery wind for the North Island. Gales in exposed areas.

Between 10am Saturday and 10pm Saturday is looking heavy... possibly even torrential rain.... judging by Metservice rain maps anyway

A nice 70 to 80k jet over the North Island and northern South Island expected in 36hours or so.

looking like could be a hum dinger NW wind here
all welcome to come out to the light house for a severe gale weather meet saturday arvo

Still quite some variation on how this is going to affect Christchurch. Was looking at 50mm + in the two earlier runs today but now back down to around 20-25mm again, fairly similar to last night. See what happens overnight, I think the morning one will be a telling story.

The models have changed got the rain back over North Otago this morning . Just overcast at the moment

the low should look much better by the end of today I susepect as it picks up warm moist air over the tasman