NZ Weather Forum

Probably time to leave the Evan thread in the weather abroad area, and move discussion in here.

cool to watch the collision going on the moment on the sat animation
ripping shreads out of the cloud sheet on the western side of former TC Evan
as the westerly pattern from the tasman collides with it

Auckland should miss a lot of the rain due to sheltering effects in E flow.

Looks like humid, low clouds/drizzle for Xmas day,

Yes, Auckland may end up with low clouds /drizzle showers Xmas day due to the high humidity and onshore flow, the weather will tend to brighten in the afternoon.

Looks like sunny spells could lead to a few heavy afternoon/evening showers across the North Island and upper South Island due to the high dewpoint levels.

wow, check out the new convection that developed overnight...
if it does that as it moves over, there will be heavy rain...
if it slides over the top of the auckland area and we get a NE flow, then Auckland is in the firing line for rain

Its been in the models for a few runs now, looks like much of the South Island will get a good dose of rain on the 26/27th December.
Canterbury could be looking at up to 50mm or slightly more with some heavy falls at times, so im sure that will go down well with the early campers.
A big swing in the origional outlook of sunny weather for this period.

ex Evan is coming in fast now!

Jasestorm wrote:Its been in the models for a few runs now, looks like much of the South Island will get a good dose of rain on the 26/27th December.
Canterbury could be looking at up to 50mm or slightly more with some heavy falls at times, so im sure that will go down well with the early campers.
A big swing in the origional outlook of sunny weather for this period.

Looks more up the east coast to me, not so much a chch event.

Yes.looking like a cool event as the system moves over here. Christmas Day looks to be a hot one however with temperatures likely to hit a record breaking Christmas Day temperature of 35C.


...but then it could only get to 18C

I see, that MetService in it's long range forecast have said that exTC Evan is moving east into the Tasman Sea?
I'm confused?



QUOTE:
On Tuesday, Christmas day, the low is expected to move east into the Tasman Sea

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Yes.looking like a cool event as the system moves over here. Christmas Day looks to be a hot one however with temperatures likely to hit a record breaking Christmas Day temperature of 35C.


...but then it could only get to 18C

They only have Waipara on 24deg and Timaru 22deg for Christmas Day so why would CHCH be 31deg i wonder

I see the MS now have CHCH on a more realistic high of 28 deg for Christmas day

Richard wrote:I see the MS now have CHCH on a more realistic high of 28 deg for Christmas day

Looks like very high temperatures inland South Island. Certainly topping 30C inland Otago/Canterbury.

The coastal NE should keep Christchurch and Dunedins' temperature down.

Temps could reach 30C in some parts of the lower North Island but cloud cover will limit heating.

NZstorm wrote:

Richard wrote:I see the MS now have CHCH on a more realistic high of 28 deg for Christmas day

Looks like very high temperatures inland South Island. Certainly topping 30C inland Otago/Canterbury.

The coastal NE should keep Christchurch and Dunedins' temperature down.

Temps could reach 30C in some parts of the lower North Island but cloud cover will limit heating.

Yes think so,she's going to be very hot one in this valley,thankfully we'll be near CHCH mostly on the day

Christmas forecasts for the Waikato seem to be OK, Mostly Cloud turning Mostly Sunny with a chance of showers.
Not too bad really

looking less impressive now...for rain...
still it is dragging down moisture in the flow around the high..

I see M/S do now have heavy rain warnings out:
http://metservice.com/national/warnings ... r-warnings

Cloud thickening here now, looking more like rain now

SE wind is freshening now, overcaste. Sunshine today would have seen the temperature really come up.
Currently 24C, dewpoint 18C.

interesting article here:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/8113055 ... -Christmas
refers to the unusually very tall CB towers detected by the new TRIMM satellite, when Evan was it its peak

Rain has finally set in here - and over in Russell to by the look of it.

Looking forward to the substantial falls over the Canterbury Plains on Boxing Day. No thunder with it but some serious drizzle fallage will be quite appreciated here.

a warm night...here...21C at 10pm...

Manukau heads obs wrote:a warm night...here...21C at 10pm...

Interestingly Metservice is showing Auckland still on 22C. It has been 20C here for about 3 hours now.

Yes its going to be one uncomfortable night if you don't have air-con....

Yep still like 22 with 90+% humidity at 11.30pm. Glad there is no work tomorrow.