Tropical Cyclone Zane - Coral Sea

[Nev]

TC Zane was named by the BoM late this morn and is expected to cross the top of Cape York tomorrow night as a Cat 2. This would make it the first TC to cross the Qld coast in the month of May since TC Lisa in 1991 and the 14th TC to have formed in the month of April since 1970...

DQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0106 UTC 30/04/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Zane
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 150.2E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: west [261 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
…
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with a 0.7 degree wrap on a log10
spiral, giving a DT of 3.0. MET and PAT suggest 3.5 and 3.0 respectively. FT
based on PAT as DT was not completely clear.

The 2222UTC SSMI microwave image indicated an area of well organised convection
near the system centre. Confidence in the location of the centre is good based
on radar imagery from Willis Island. Winds are likely to be strongest on the
southern side of the system in the E/SE flow assisted by synoptic forcing and
storm motion.

The broadscale environment is generally conducive for further development with
the vertical shear being low and with reasonable upper level outflow. Tropical
Cyclone Zane is expected to intensify into a category 2 system at some stage
today. The intensity of the system closer to landfall will be heavily dependent
upon any increased wind shear that may develop with the next upper trough moving
across central Australia during Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Zane should continue moving to the west-northwest and
accelerate somewhat under the influence of a developing mid-level ridge across
Queensland and the central Coral Sea.

[Nev]

Quick Update: BoM upgraded TC Zane to Cat 2 a few hours ago and its expected reach Cat 3 tonight. However, they seem a little uncertain of this feisty midget's status at landfall…

Nth Qld could certainly do with the rain as they head into the dry-season, with one-third of state being drought declared yesterday.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0652 UTC 30/04/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Zane
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.0S
Longitude: 149.5E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: west [260 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 989 hPa
…
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with a 1.0 degree wrap on a log10
spiral, giving a DT of 3.5. MET and PAT suggest 3.5 and 4.0 respectively. FT
based on DT as it appears clear.

A significant amount of development has occurred over the last 6 hours with a
tight curved band signature now evident on the satellite imagery. The 2222UTC
SSMI microwave image indicated an area of well organised convection near the
system centre prior to this quite rapid intensification. Confidence in the
location of the centre is good based on radar imagery from Willis Island and it
appears that the system is a midget with quite a small radius of maximum winds.
Winds are likely to be strongest on the southern side of the system in the E/SE
flow assisted by synoptic forcing and storm motion.

The broadscale environment is generally conducive for further development with
the vertical shear being low and with reasonable upper level outflow. Tropical
Cyclone Zane is expected to intensify into a category 3 system tonight. The
intensity of the system closer to landfall will be heavily dependent upon any
increased wind shear that may develop with the next upper trough moving across
central Australia during Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Zane should continue moving to the west-northwest and
accelerate somewhat under the influence of a developing mid-level ridge across
Queensland and the central Coral Sea.