UK Weather - Autumn 2013

[Simon Culling]

Autumn in the northern hemisphere is traditionally September, October and November, so time for a new thread. It was a chilly start to the day on Sunday (1st Sept) over England and Wales with a local ground frost in places, but the day was mostly sunny and the temperature got into the low 20's. Minimums reported were:

3.5*C at Exeter Airport + Pembrey Sands
4.0*C at RAF Benson
4.1*C at Stratfield Mortimer (Berkshire + grass min of -0.5*C)
4.9*C at Bournemouth Hurn Airport (grass min of -0.3*C)

However, it has warmed up today (Monday 2nd) and we are set for another warm and sunny week with the mercury climbing to 27-28*C by Weds + Thurs. Longer term we are looking at rain moving up from the south and if the warm humid air remains in situ we could get a lot of rain at the weekend and into next week.

[Simon Culling]

it was warm and sunny over much of England + Wales yesterday (Tues 3rd Sept) and the temperatures have been rising. Max's reported were:

26.8*C at Frittenden (Kent)
26.2*C at Middle Wallop (Hampshire)
26.0*C at London Heathrow
25.8*C at RAF Benson (Oxon)
25.4*C at Boscombe Down (Wiltshire) + Charsfield (Suffolk)

It was warmer today (Weds) and up to 28*C in places but the figures have not yet been published. Even hotter is predicted tomorrow with 30*C on the cards for the south east of England and then a big cool down for the weekend with lots of heavy rain predicted....daytime max's down to 16-18*C.

[Simon Culling]

Wednesday was warmer again, with the best weather concentrated in the SE half of England, although it was warm and sunny in many western areas. High temperatures were:

28.7*C at Wisley (nr the RHA)
28.5*C at London Heathrow
28.4*C at RAF Northolt
28.3*C at Charlwood
27.7*C at RAF Benson (Oxon)
27.6*C at Wellesbourne (Warwickdshire)

The mercury reached 28.8*C at St Helier and 28.2*C at Jersey Airport, both in the Channel Islands.

It was warmer again today, with 30*C surpassed in London and parts east and south of the capital, but a big cool down with rain is on the way for tomorrow. Not much prospect of any big convection, though.

[Simon Culling]

The mercury did indeed exceed 30*C in the far south east of England on Thursday, but the warmth has edged away to the east since then. Maximum temperatures at Met Office sites on Thurs (5th) were:

30.2*C at Writtle (Essex) + Frittenden (Kent)
30.0*C at Manston (Kent coast)
29.7*C at Wattisham (Suffolk) + RAF Northolt
29.5*C at Gravesend + London Heathrow

I was in Stockport (just south of Manchester) and whilst it was sunny at times, the temperature was only 20*C.

Today was much cooler as a developing low (1005mb) drifted north up the eastern side of England with plenty of rain for northern and western parts. It was a lot cooler today (Fri 6th) as I have already said with max temps for some of the above stations illustrating this:

Manston max 21.7*C (down 8.3*C on Thurs)
Wattisham max 20.1*C (down 9.6*C)
RAF Northolt max 17.8*C (down 11.9*C)
London Heathrow max 18.1*C (down 11.4*C)

[Simon Culling]

CET for September up to the 10th is 14.4*C (-0.2*C) and the EWR is 20mm up to the 9th which is on curve.

It has turned much cooler in the last week with rain at times, although it has not been doom and gloom.....we have had some sunshine and a few thunderstorms. The forecast charts look to continue the cool and changeable weather with a rather breezy day expected on Sunday......although nothing on the scale of the storm in NZ yesterday.

The grass has regained its green colour after being rather brown in places for the last couple of months. The summer sunshine may have increased the sugar store in the tree leaves and this could lead to a nice colour display as we move into October.

[Simon Culling]

The weather has remained cool and unsettled with spells of rain, but not much in the way of strong winds. The CET up to the 17th is 13.6*C (-0.5*C) which is surprising bearing in mind how cool for the time of the year it has been. The EWR up to the 16th is 46mm which is above the curve. The next couple of days will remain cool and unsettled but it should then turn drier and warmer as a high pushes up from the south....could be back into the low 20's by Monday.

[Simon Culling]

The rather non-descript weather has continued with not very much happening. it has been generally fine with a few showers and average temperatures. No autumn storms yet, but a few of the trees are now showing a little colour.

The CET for September up to the 28th was 14.0*C (+0.3*C) and the EWER up to the 27th was 58mm, which is 74% of the monthly value.

[Simon Culling]

Final CET for September was 13.9*C (+0.1*C) making it the third warmer than average month in a row...although only just. EWR was 59mm which is 75% of the long term average.

The weather has livened up in the last day or so as the Scandinavian high declines and a low pressure to the SW gradually eases N on the west side of the UK. At 1800GMT on Wednesday 2nd October it was at 987mb and approx. 250nm SW of Eire and drifting north, but it is throwing a lot of warm and moist air up the western side of the UK with quite a bit of rain, especially over Ireland. A possible tornado was reported from Banagher in Co Galway around 6pm this evening and the photo shows a decent wedge. I will acquire some more details on this for tomorrow. Periods of heavy rain are expected over much of England + Wales tonight and through Thursday with locally 60-80mm expected.

[Simon Culling]

A very mild start to October......its sunny this afternoon (Sunday 6th) and 19*C....time to cut the grass.

The CET for October up to the 5th was 15.4*C (+3.2*C) which is warmer than September. The EWR up to the 4th is on 20mm which compares to a monthly average of 87mm.

The weather will be turning a lot colder from midweek as a big high develops in the northern part of the Atlantic and a low moves SE over Scandinavia. This will introduce northerly winds and gives us maximum temperatures 10*C lower by Thursday.....we will see the first proper mountain snows to the Scottish Highlands as well, where yet again a few snow patches have made it through the summer months. We will likely also see the first general frost across England + Wales.

[Simon Culling]

CET for October up to the 11th was 14.4*C (+2.3*C), although this will fall slowly this week. EWR up to the 10th was 25mm and this will rise quickly.

Thursday was a breezy day along the North Sea coasts with strong northerly winds bringing a small storm surge and a little coastal flooding as gusts reached 55mph at Weybourne (N Norfolk coast) and 60mph at Donna Nook on the Lincolnshire coast. The link below has some very good photos:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... oding.html

It has turned quite a bit cooler as well in the last few days with max temps of just 8.8*C at Fylingdales (N Yorks) and 10.6*C at Rothamstead (Herts) on Thursday (10th) which compares to 20-22*C last weekend.

[Richard]

Some rough sea's there alright Simon

[Simon Culling]

Yes indeed Richard, photos of the waves crashing against the shore always look spectacular. I am sure residents of Wellington are very familiar with such images.....it sure is windy there.

It has been quite wet over the southern half of the UK this weekend, and particularly in SE of England in Kent, Essex and Sussex. In the 24 hours to 0600GMNT on Saturday (12th) 61.6mm fell at Herstmonceux (E Sussex), 54.6mm at Shoeburyness (Essex) and 41.6mm at Manston (Kent). Another band of rain is moving westwards (against the normal flow) this morning (Sunday) and will dump another 20-30mm.

It has been cool and wet here in Milton Keynes with 15mm Friday into Saturday and another 15mm this morning. It has been a dry year so far, and the water companies will not be complaining about this wet spell.

[Simon Culling]

The weather has remained rather unsettled with temperatures around normal. A small tornado was reported from Wrexham (N Wales) on Monday (14th Oct) afternoon with a good video available on YouTube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqk3XivN2vM

It takes about a minute to get going, but there is definitely a funnel and some rotation is visible. Damage was reported to a number of buildings and a few trees were felled and torrential rain and hail was also reported in the area at the time. The low that brought the rain at the weekend was still centred over the English Midlands (1006mb) with plenty of showers across the country.

[Simon Culling]

The unsettled weather has continued with plenty of rain and showers over the UK and yet another small tornado was reported from Hayling Island on the south coast on Sunday (20th) morning. It probably started as a waterspout and then came ashore. Not mentioned in this story is the estimated £100,000 damage to a marina on the northern end of the island. Site investigations continue.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-24601190

A short lived thunderstorm here in Milton Keynes early this afternoon (Sunday 20th Oct) with hard hailstones up to 10mm in diameter bouncing 1m into the air from the patio and windowsills.

CET for October up to the 19th is 13.0*C (+1.7*C) and the EWR up to the 18th is 70mm. The rainfall total will exceed the monthly average by the end of the coming week, but the temperature anomaly will remain about the same as it will continue mild. Some of the forecast charts are showing a very deep low near the UK next weekend will severe gales and a very strong jet stream flowing across the Atlantic

[Simon Culling]

Best thunderstorm of the year last night (Weds 22nd Oct) with some decent c-g and c-c lightning here in Milton Keynes. The storm was more like a summer import from France. Storms were experienced across most of southern England with the most active being in the Bournemouth and Southampton areas. There was even another waterspout/tornado at Bognor Regis in the early hours of Thursday morning.....probably as a result of vortex shedding from the high ground on the nearby Isle of Wight. This area is getting the reputation of being Britain's tornado alley!!!

We have now lost the long fetch of warm and moist southerly's we have been bathed in for the last week and the Atlantic jet is pushing our way. Some of the models are suggesting a very rapidly deepening depression for next Monday with a track across central Britain. Could be a very windy day.

[Richard]

Sounds a beauty thunderstorm Simon,ya lucky bugger

[Simon Culling]

Yes indeed, Richard. It was so unusual to have such a potent storm after dark so late in the year. In years past, fantastic night time lightning displays used to occur two or three times each summer, but they have been a rarity in recent years. Anyway, not complaining about this one!

As per my last post, the Met Office have put out an early warning for a significant storm event for the southern half of the UK for Sunday night into Monday morning, with wind gusts up to 80mph and beyond over quite a large area. With the trees still mostly in leaf and the recent rain softening up the soil there could be quite a bit of damage by the start of the working week. These wind speeds are strong enough for some property damage.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releas ... k-extended

CET for October is 13.1*C (+2.1*C) up to the 24th and the EWR has leapt ahead to 105mm (122% of average for whole month) up to the 23rd with plenty more to come.

[Orion]

Good luck re that approaching storm. I'll follow its progress with interest:
I remember the news of the 1987 storm http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987 and nobody wants to see that sort of thing happen again. This looks less severe and perhaps a slightly different track?

[Simon Culling]

Hello Orion. The projected track is from a slightly more south-westerly aspect to start with, but it is not too far removed from the 1987 storm. There are obviously a reduced number of observations over the Atlantic as compared to land, so the models initial conditions can be swayed by a one or two readings, so projections will change over the next 24-36 hours. The Met Office are now confident that it will be a storm of note, so we will have to hope it is not too bad.

The 1987 storm principally affected the SE of England from London southward and particularly Hampshire, Sussex, Surrey, Kent and Essex. The highest quoted gust (in England) of 106kts at Gorleston (on the N Sea coast) has been removed from the record as the anemometer was found to be damaged....there were a number of holes in the cups! The official top gust in the UK was 100kts (115mph) at Shoreham on the south coast.

Below are two pdf's on this storm. The first is a wonderful article that appeared in the March 1988 edition of 'Weather' magazine and is a must for statto's. The second is from an insurance perspective. Enjoy!

http://www.metlink.org/pdf/articles/the ... sfield.pdf

https://support.rms.com/publications/Gr ... f_1987.pdf

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Interesting scenario
Will keep tabs on this. Thanx.

[Simon Culling]

There is much media attention directed towards the predicted storm for Monday morning and the Met Office have made a bold call based on confidence in model output, bearing in mind the system has not formed yet. The attached synoptic map (courtesy of the Met Office) drawn for 1800GMT on Saturday 26th October shows the system just beginning to form a circulation at 1007mb and a couple of thousand miles to our west. It is expected to sweep across SW England and then across the midlands to exit into the N Sea around noon on Monday somewhere near the Wash and then at around 965mb. It will be interesting to see how the forecast changes or develops tomorrow (Sunday) as the system begins to wind up.

The major low in the centre of the Atlantic (960mb) will move away to the NE and the new system will effectively develop as a secondary low to start with. The jet stream is currently well south of its normal position and is running near to 200kts.

[Orion]

Thanks for that update, Simon.
I'll be watching the reports.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013 ... -judes-day



(I observe that home-garden trampolines seem to be a big problem here in gales, not sure if they're as commonly-owned in Britain?)

[shovelopikis]

im near Reading for a few months,
saw that awesome thunder and lightning storm the other night, had to chainsaw a tree from winds that night...expecting more chainsawing tomorrow after this coming storm tonight!

[Simon Culling]

The depression has begun to deepen rapidly, but it appears that the centre will be a little further south than originally expected and it will not reach its most potent state until it has moved into the North Sea tomorrow (Monday) morning.......northern Holland and Denmark look in the firing line, especially if a sting jet develops. The attached map (copyright of the Met Office) shows it at 988mb as at 1800GMT, but it has moved into the approaches to the Severn estuary by 2300GMT (now) and is at around 982mb. It is still proving not easy to forecast and much of southern England has been advised to shut down, especially the transportation system, so the Met Office must still expecting strong winds especially to the SE corner of England....Kent, Sussex and Hampshire. The morning will tell all!

[Simon Culling]

Low is now (0700GMT) just exiting the east coast at the Wash at 973mb and still deepening. The strongest winds are associated with the wind shift from S to W on the SW side of the low and this is moving westwards across southern England at the moment, with inland stations reported gusts up to 75mph. No too bad here in Milton Keynes as we are just to the north of the strongest band of winds......gusted to about 55mph here at around 06:45.