NZ Weather Forum

03Stormchaser wrote:Models are now showing a shift to Friday being a good storm day up north, no shear though. I really shouldnt be looking this far out but just cant help myself lol

Hopefully the trough can hang on for you Steve EC has it out the way Friday, still early days

Feb weather up here today, sunny, max 26C

Looks like most parts of Auckland got to 26-27C today.

spwill wrote:

03Stormchaser wrote:Models are now showing a shift to Friday being a good storm day up north, no shear though. I really shouldnt be looking this far out but just cant help myself lol

Hopefully the trough can hang on for you Steve EC has it out the way Friday, still early days

I get the feeling the latest GFS run doesn't fit the trend from the few runs beforehand showing thursday being the most unstable. Wed/thursday here in Canterbury arnt looking to shabby, and we all know Cnaterbury storms are the best anyway

man havent seen that in awhile.. CAPE of 1000 over canterbury wensday, the LIs are -4.. good instability!! sometimes the models arent actually that accurate with CAPE on canterbury plains though. so it could be abit higher

mikestormchaser wrote:man havent seen that in awhile.. CAPE of 1000 over canterbury wensday, the LIs are -4.. good instability!! sometimes the models arent actually that accurate with CAPE on canterbury plains though. so it could be abit higher

CAPE is a hard number to nail down. The traditional severe hail events on the Canterbury plains do occur with relatively small CAPE but the dynamics such as shear and forcing are big. Its a combination of factors that go into the mix for a storm.

An example was the Waimate tornado March 8th 2006, only had Cape of about 500 but more of a key ingredient were Li's-4 to -5 (Unfortunatly I cant remember shear figures from this day) but this formed a low topped supercell. I tend to only look at Cape as a level of instability rather than take anything of the actual figure.

03Stormchaser wrote:
I get the feeling the latest GFS run doesn't fit the trend from the few runs beforehand showing thursday being the most unstable. Wed/thursday here in Canterbury arnt looking to shabby, and we all know Cnaterbury storms are the best anyway

Hopefully we can show you what a good storm does look like on Friday but the very latest GFS run does have the system moving out.

03Stormchaser wrote: and we all know Cnaterbury storms are the best anyway

That's because you have forgotten/never witnessed what the north island has to offer


Got to 26.7C again today. Yesterday there was no sea breeze but today we have had one come in from the west.

There were some great dust devils today. I witnessed one go right over the anemometer just after midday. The wind spiked from gusting to 15km/h to a gust of 40km/h as it went over.

Looking forward to next week. Still some bloody juicy numbers coming out of the models

The average max temp at Auckland Airport for the last 7 days has been 24C, the November average is about 20C.
Ave min has been about 14C.

jamie wrote: That's because you have forgotten/never witnessed what the north island has to offer

Exactly

Northland is looking like a great place to see some Lightning activity next week. Waikato's risk mainly starts on Tuesday according to the GFS, mainly due to the cold upper trough pushing out the the warm upper air.

03Stormchaser wrote:An example was the Waimate tornado March 8th 2006, only had Cape of about 500 but more of a key ingredient were Li's-4 to -5 (Unfortunatly I cant remember shear figures from this day) but this formed a low topped supercell. I tend to only look at Cape as a level of instability rather than take anything of the actual figure.

The big factor in Canterbury tornadoes is the very steep lapse rates in summer with the 850mb temperatures typically around 0C and 700mb temps around -9C.

For the Waimate tornado the 500mb LI would have been quite small but 700mb LI quite big.

On Saturday jamie wrote:Got to 26.7C yesterday. ... 27.3C in 2010 is the warmest November temp this station has ever recorded.

Got to 26.7C again today.

Ruakura and Hamilton Aero also recorded their highest ever Nov temps in 2010, with 28.1C and 28.3C respectively. Yesterday's data not in yet but, Ruakura came close on Friday with 27.9C.

Yesterday Akld Aero equalled it highest ever Nov temp of 25.6C with 2008, as did Pukekohe on Friday with 25.8C (and possibly surpassed yesterday).

Also some high temps at Ardmore Aero lately, with 26.9C yesterday and 26.4 on Friday.
25.8C here yesterday and 25.5C on Friday.


UPDATE: New Nov record for Ruakura yesterday with 28.4C.
Pukekohe also beat its previous record with 26.9C yesterday, as did Mangere with and 26.8C.

A sunny morning with some cloud to the west. I wonder if today will be hotter here than yesterday, as we have a light SW instead of a more coastal NE.

21C in Grey Lynn already but the SW flow will prevent temps getting as warm as yesterday.

But I can see inland North Island spots getting hot, upto 28C.

NZstorm wrote:21C in Grey Lynn already but the SW flow will prevent temps getting as warm as yesterday.

The airport had a SW yesterday and still got to 26C though

The southwest seabreeze will be fresher this afternoon than previous days, the upside being it keeps the sea breeze convergence out.
Humidity up a little today, dewpoint 17 -18C, currently sunny 24C

NW wind arrived here at about 10.00 am ,sitting on 24deg atm.

spwill wrote:The southwest seabreeze will be fresher this afternoon than previous days, the upside being it keeps the sea breeze convergence out.
Humidity up a little today, dewpoint 17 -18C, currently sunny 24C

Yeah it is freshening a bit now. We did reach a max of 25.9°C in Howick though

Richard wrote:NW wind arrived here at about 10.00 am ,sitting on 24deg atm.

No NW here, despite the fact it got up to 25.4C.
The general direction of wind, here, been between East and SE for much of the time, today, now more SW.

Beautiful day in Canterbury today, not much wind and very warm!! going to put my feet up soon and have a drink
Just checking the outlook for next saturday.. looking like a cold upper trough moving in but then drifting offshore before 10pm not reaching mid and north canterbury, but could be something south!! it will change but will it for the worse or better..

Yes, looks like the South Island will possibly catch some cold weather this weekend, polar air in the mix.

A warm week ahead up here with the humid airmass next few days, dewpoint possibly reaching 20C, some welcome rain/possible thunder.

I would say that there will be places in NZ that might end up with one of their warmest Novembers on record?

Manukau heads obs wrote:I would say that there will be places in NZ that might end up with one of their warmest Novembers on record?

According to NIWA (https://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/daily-climate-maps) quite a large portion of the country is at least 1C warmer than usual, with parts of the South Island at least 2C warmer than usual.

I have an average daily max of 22.0C so far this month which seems high for November

I am currently running 1.1c warmer than 'normal' here for november

Started drizzling in Chch within the last hour. Much cooler than yesterday - I guess by about 8C. (and I see it was only 7C in Lumsden at noon)