NZ Weather Forum

Looks like we have a heat/wind convergence induced Thunder setup coming tomorrow, which is a surprise, which may be also assisted by trough passing.

GFS is expecting moisture to come in on Seabreeze and with the heat of day develop potential storms.
Due to expected afternoon temps on the 11th to be around 25°C, it poses a more likely setup for a Seabreeze to enter the equation. The Seabreeze front will most likely enter East central Waikato around 5 to 6PM.

However upper air is fairly dry and there is a risk that the air will mix out, like it did on Friday. The Kaimai Ranges, Rotorua and East Central Waikato, look like the best place.

I may have a peek tomorrow due to the location of the setup, but will only head out If I see something worthwhile.

GFS has been showing this afternoon shower/storm chance for atleast a few days. A sunny afternoon across inland BOP/ Waikato is needed.

spwill wrote:GFS has been showing this afternoon shower/storm chance for atleast a few days.

Shows how much I have been looking at the models since Friday. Didnt bother looking due to thinking that the incoming ridge would get rid of any chance.

I have deleted the sounding I posted earlier and will check out todays 00Z run.

A weakness with the set up is a lack of shortwave.

Checking at the 12Z run, looking like a weak cb or two could spring up after 5pm. But not much of a set up.

we had a bit of drizzle here this morning...the sea gulls that came in last night were right...LOL

SFC conditions are ideal for a heat induced storm - temp of 23 with Dp of 18C! The lift just needs to be there. If anything gets going its going to be quite late around 6 PM onwards I think.
Baro decreasing too which is another good sign....

Big coliflower tops to my ESE but nothing on radar....yet?

Lack of short wave energy was a big negative on today's convection chances as well as the warm upper level air.

Spoken a little too soon i think, look at the latest radar image:
60dbz in all

Yea very nice cell. Very late starting for nz standards. Nicely isolated but sadly no lightning yet

The wind convergence has come through too late

Lapse rates are/were not very good today, would have done a little better if the convergence occurred late afternoon. A pitty but 60dbz for a shower.......

The short wave was running about 6hrs late. It was over the upper South Island late afternoon and spreading onto the NI in the evening.