Storms- New Years day- 2014

[Tornado Tim]

Quite an active system coming tomorrow. With a jet crossing over the north central north island.

High cape (for NZ anyway), with quite high HEL values suggest that there may be Tornadoes with this setup.....
West Auckland will be just on the edge of the jet in the afternoon and early in the evening.

I would put a low to mod risk of funnels and possible tornadoes forming in any convection from Taupo tomorrow.
Metservice suggest the risk is mainly in Auckland, but models suggest a moderate NW which will drag all the moist air inland. I think they might be outlining the jet interacting to the west with any convection that occurs.

Either way I think the risk is bigger than just auckland and Northland on the outlooks map.....

[Manukau heads obs]

Kewl
looking forward to it
such a nice sunny day today...too good to be true...

[David]

Remember having thunder here on New Year's Day 2007. Hopefully tomorrow delivers

[KiwiWeather]

What a "Cracking" start to the new year !!

[Nev]

This morn's T-Storm Outlook update for today just out…

MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Wednesday 1 Jan 2014
Issued at: 9:04am Wednesday 1 Jan 2014

A frontal rainband moving onto the west and upper South Island contains embedded thunderstorms which have already affected parts of Westland, Buller and Nelson this morning. There is a high risk of further thunderstorms in northern Westland,Buller, Nelson and the Marlborough Sounds this morning and early afternoon,bringing heavy rain and small hail. Additionally, there is a low risk of one or two SEVERE storms producing downpours exceeding 25mm/hr and a small tornado in coastal places.

This front moves onto the lower North Island this afternoon, then northwards over central areas later in the afternoon and evening with a moderate risk of a few embedded thunderstorms in the rainband for western areas from Wellington and Kapiti up to Taranaki this afternoon then extending to Waikato, Taupo, and western Bay of Plenty by evening. Any thunderstorms that occur in these areas may bring localised heavy rain and small hail.

Over the upper North Island, conditions are expected to become increasingly unstable today with a moderate risk of thunderstorms forming this afternoon on wind convergences in Northland, Auckland and Coromandel. These storms may bring localised heavy rain and gusty winds. Additionally, if conditions become favourable, there is also a threat of one or two storms becoming SEVERE and capable of producing downpours exceeding 25mm/hr and a small tornado, especially over southern Northland and northern Auckland this afternoon. At this stage the risk of severe storms is considered low.

There is also a moderate risk of isolated thunderstorms forming this afternoon in South Canterbury, North Otago and Dunedin, with heavy rain, hail and a low risk of a funnel cloud or small tornado.

Finally, another rainband moves onto Fiordland from evening with a moderate risk of thunderstorms bringing heavy rain and small hail.

MetService T-Storm Outlook Map - Is. Jan 1, 9.05am.png

[NZstorm]

Looking like Northland is where the low level convergence will be today due to the weak front/possible sea breeze. I may go for drive north today. Coromandel/Bay of Plenty may also catch a storm.

If I was still in the South Island I would be targeting south of Timaru and hoping for a seabreeze/LP storm ahead of the southerly. Looks like a dry westerly for the plains.

[David]

We have a light NE this morning in Howick so it seems fairly likely there will be convergence in Auckland today
Currently overcast and 19C

[Tornado Tim]

Some quite high forecasted EHI numbers coming for NZ this afternoon: 0.5-0.6! Shear 3KM: 130+

[Thunder]

I'm probably buggered from heading down there today, too much to do around the house. Unless it rains then I can't do anything so could chase then. We'll see.

[Manukau heads obs]

NE wind here
blue skies out to the west
could be sea breeze convergence
upper level clouds are NW

[spike_01]

Just started pouring down in Wellington, after a nice day yesterday

[NZstorm]

Cb visible from Grey Lynn over the Coromandel.

[Manukau heads obs]

westerly wind change here now

[David]

westerly wind change here now

And it's NE in Howick at the moment, so convergence should be happening somewhere...

[Manukau heads obs]

maybe will have to wait for the frontal boundary in the tasman to arrive tonight

[Manukau heads obs]

northland getting some good looking shower lines...
they are moving SE...

[NZstorm]

I'm north of Warkwarth and got thunder here. Cg's observed. Very heavy rain.

[Manukau heads obs]

some good development to my east now...cap clouds and all
the city itself might get some shower lines soon by the looks

[jamie]

yea radar shows convergence over Auckland. Up to 23 here now. So plenty of heating ahead of this front.

[Manukau heads obs]

blitzortung shows that warkworth CB to be surprisingly active

also now more zoomed in (new south wales has its own page now I see)
http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/ind ... bpage_0=21

[Manukau heads obs]

good looking CB's out to my east now

[Orion]

My Waimate Spy reports thunder there.

[tich]

I saw a large cb out to southeast from Chch about 1/2 hour ago - radar shows small blob just to southeast of BP. Some other unstable looking clouds to the north.

[Chris Raine]

Thunderstorms in Oamaru currently

[03Stormchaser]

Waterspout came ashore in Hokitika today. As well as a funnel cloud near Greymouth along with hail over 1cm, Which is quite decent for the West Coast. Some submitted video and photos at www.facebook.com/nzstormchasers