Tropical Cyclone June - Solomons, Vanuatu & New Cal.

[bjb]

Fiji Met Service have issued the following tropical disturbance summary today.

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 14/2329 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD08F CENTRE [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.0S
161.8E AT 142100UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 31 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT PAST 24
HOURS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENTS UP TO 700 HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND KEEP IT SLOW MOVING AND
MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS LATER WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

The area where the system is currently is between Solomon Islands and Vanuatu.
This puts it higher up than some of the global models were suggesting, (GFS & ECMWF).
Will be interesting to follow over the next few days.

Next Cyclone name on the Fiji list III is June, so that is the likely name if it forms.
(Unless is moves West and gets named in the Australian region).

Barry

[Nev]

Hmm… Fiji Met seem to be offline this morn, but last night they began reissuing Tropical Disturbance Summaries for this system…

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 16/0812 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD08F IS FORECASTED TO ENTER NADI'S AREA OF
RESPOSIBILITY TOMORROW. IT IS EXPECTED TO LIE NEAR 14.5S 160.0E AT
170000 UTC.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ONCE IT
IS INSIDE NADI'S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IS HIGH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

Latest from JTWC this morn…

ABPW10 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/161500Z-170600ZJAN2014//
…
2.B.(1)THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S
160.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 160.2E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEPENING CONVECTION. A 160841Z TRMM 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
BROAD LLCC WITH FORMATIVE, ALBEIT BROKEN, CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS MULTI-DIRECTIONAL OUTFLOW IS BEING OFFSET
BY MODERATE TO LOW (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS
POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
DUE TO THE RECENT INCREASE IN STRUCTURE AND OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
…

[Nev]

Update: Back online…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 16/1422 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 160.0E
AT 161200UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTES AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT
25 KNOTS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED AND CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTANT PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 WRAP YEILDS DT OF 2.0 PT=2.0
AMD MET=2.0 FT BASED ON DT THUS, T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[Nev]

Updated track-map…

[Nev]

Down to 998 hPa, so still a little ways to go before she becomes a TC…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 17/0154 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 162.4E
AT 170000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT VIS/IR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30
KNOTS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED AND CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT
IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST BUT GOOD
ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWEST- SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4 WRAP YEILDING DT OF
2.5, MET=2.0 AND PT=2.5. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS.
...

[ben g]

Firing up nicely
http://www.bellmereweather.net/MTSatPic ... nsland.asp

[Nev]

JTWC have finally put out a TC formation alert…

WTPS21 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2S 161.3E TO 27.0S 166.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.9S 162.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 160.2E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 162.8E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEPENING FORMATIVE
BANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, THE SHEAR IS EASILY OFFSET BY A ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS
EVIDENCED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE REGION ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE
AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS POLEWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180300Z. //
NNNN

[Nev]

TC June has just been named by RSMC Nadi…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 17/0549 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE 08F CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 162.2E
AT 170400 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR AND VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC REMAINS PERSISTANT AND ITS AREA HAS
INCREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST
BUT GOOD ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWEST- SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP
YEILDING DT OF 3.0, MET=2.5 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS,
T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION.

[Nev]

Updated track-map...

[bjb]

Had to be named at some time, pleased it was today.
Fiji handing it off to BNE yesterday, next thing it is over the 160 degree line and back with Fiji.
(Sorry this over the 160 degree line thing Sh**'s me, I live in the potential path not BNE. )
This TD has been in Fiji area for days and yesterday it did not exist anymore!!
Pleased to see it was back in our area so we could get some meaningful reports.
(example, Yasi was named in Vanuatu waters long before it ever got to QLD.)

So we finally have a name "June".
Could be short lived as the high over NZ will keep it over New Cal.
Still a Cat. 1 over Northland will make it interesting.

Barry

[Willoughby]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Issued at 9:24 pm NFT Friday 17 January 2014 based on international data at 5:30
pm NFT

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY
NORFOLK ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for Norfolk Island.

At 5:30 pm NFT a Tropical Cyclone June, Category 1, was estimated to be
1460 kilometres north northwest of Norfolk Island and moving south southwest at
17 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to remain about the same strength.

At 0400UTC Category 1 Tropical Cyclone June was located over the Coral Sea at
coordinates 17.2S and 162.2E near New Caledonia. The cyclone is tracking
towards the south.

Tropical Cyclone June is expected to produce a prolonged period of gale
force winds, heavy rainfall and moderate to heavy swells on Sunday and Monday.

Damaging winds averaging above 75 km/h with gusts of about 100 km/h are
expected to develop on Norfolk Island by about midday on Sunday and persist
through the remainder of Sunday into Monday morning.
The wind is expected to ease later on Monday.

Heavy rainfall with localised flooding is expected during Sunday afternoon with
rain easing overnight Sunday.

A heavy northerly swell will build on Sunday and Monday to more than 3 metres
as the system approaches, and shift to the west from Tuesday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone June at 5:30 pm NFT:
.Centre located near...... 17.0 degrees South 162.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 17 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 12:30 am NFT Saturday 18 January.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and Norfolk Island
Emergency Services would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

This advice is for land-based communities, marine warnings will be issued from
New Zealand.

Norfolk Island Time = UTC + 11hrs 30min
Australian Eastern Daylight Time = UTC + 11hrs
Australian Eastern Standard Time = UTC + 10hrs

[Nev]

Hi Barry, yes I think Fiji Met's earlier estimates were a bit optimistic with such a relatively weak TC still being intact that close to NZ, although with enough forward momentum you never know...

JTWC's remarks earlier this morn…

WTPS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170251ZJAN14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
…
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 163.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 171058Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE
PERSISTED ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED UPON THE
CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE AND A SPREAD OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
THAT RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC
JUNE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS STR WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT STEADILY DRIVES THE SYSTEM
POLEWARD TOWARDS NEW ZEALAND. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH 45 KNOTS.
AFTER TAU 36, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS
WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AT TAU 48. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME VARIANCES IN
THE EXACT TRACK AND TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AS IT MOVES POLEWARD. DUE TO
THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 170251Z JAN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21
PGTW 170300).//
NNNN

[Nev]

RMMC Nadi's longer term outlook now more in line with the BoM's

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 17/1923 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE 08F CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3S 163.0E
AT 171800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.

WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND THE LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SOUTH
OF AN UPPER RIDGE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.
SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A NORTH-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.65 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 3.0, MET
AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.

[Nev]

June's looking a bit shabby after her brush with New Caledonia today, but expected to recover somewhat later tonight…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 18/0109 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE 08F CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3S 163.7E
AT 180000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
...

WTPS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 002//
…
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 163.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 184 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 172106Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC WITH SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE SYSTEM HAS STRUGGLED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE
TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION. HOWEVER, A 172208Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 35 TO 40 KNOT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THIS ASCAT IMAGE AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA. TC 10P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. SINCE TC 10P IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ATTAIN A PEAK INTENSITY OF ONLY 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BEFORE WEAKENING
AND UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
181500Z AND 190300Z.//
NNNN

[bjb]

Surprisingly little impact in Port Vila today.
Normally with cyclones over New Caledonia way, we get some wind and heavy rain.
There have been some gusts from the North, but only 16-20km/h with scattered showers.
It was a very warm and muggy day though, up to 32C at home and 80% humidity.
The trough line is drawing in the warm tropical air and some thunderstorms with it.

Looks like June is going to intensify overnight and now Norfolk Is. is in the line.
Norfolk will get the SE quadrant, still plenty of rain and wind in that, even with a Cat. 1.

Barry

[Nev]

Yes, the BoM have now upgraded its Cyclone Watch to a Warning for Norfolk Island, but also reckon June will transition well before she reaches it…

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Issued at 7:58 pm NFT Saturday 18 January 2014 based on international data at
5:30 pm NFT
…
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
NORFOLK ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for Norfolk Island.

At 5:30 pm NFT, Tropical Cyclone June, Category 1, was estimated to be
910 kilometres north northwest of Norfolk Island and moving south southeast at
26 kilometres per hour.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE, CATEGORY 1, is expected to continue moving in a south
southeast direction over the next couple of days and pass close to the west of
Norfolk Island during the early hours of Monday. Tropical Cyclone June will most
likely lose its tropical cyclone structure before its approach to Norfolk
Island, though the remaining intense low will still have impacts similar to a
Category 1 tropical cyclone.

Damaging winds averaging above 80 kilometres per hour, with gusts to 120
kilometres per hour, will develop about Norfolk Island during Sunday morning and
persist into Monday morning.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to localised flooding, is expected to develop
during Sunday, before easing overnight into Monday.

Damaging surf, which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion, and
abnormally high tides, which may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas,
may occur along the foreshore during Sunday and Monday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone June at 5:30 pm NFT:
.Centre located near...... 21.6 degrees South 164.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 26 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals
…
Norfolk Island Time = UTC + 11hrs 30min
...

[Nev]

Looks like June's pretty much a 'gone-burger'…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 18/1348 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE 08F CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.4S 164.8E AT 181200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN AERIAL EXTEND WITH
LLCC EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS, SYSTEM MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF COOL SST. JUNE IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A
DEEP NORTH-NORTHWEST LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR
PATTERN, LLCC SHEARED 75NM FROM DEEP CONVECTION YEILDING DT OF 2.0,
MET=2.0 AND PT=2.0. FT BASED ON MET THUS, T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH RAPID
WEAKENING.

[Nev]

June has been downgraded to a TD by MetService this morn…

GALE WARNING 233
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
AT 181800UTC
Over waters south of 25S.
Low 990hPa, former Cyclone JUNE, near 24S 165E moving south 15kt.
1. Within 240 nautical miles of low in southern semicircle: Clockwise 40kt.
2. Within 180 nautical miles of low in northern semicircle: Clockwise 35kt.
Gale areas moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 230.

Issued at 8:11am Sunday 19 Jan 2014

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 18/1946 UTC 2014 UTC.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE 08F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6S
165.1E AT 181800 UTC. POSITION POOR ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 12 HOURS AND LIES TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A NORTH-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN, LLCC SHEARED 85NM FROM
DEEP CONVECTION YEILDING DT OF 2.0, MET=1.5 AND PT=1.5. FT BASED ON
MET THUS, T1.5/2.5/W1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
WEAKENING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBNACE ADVISORY ON EX-TROPICAL
CYCLONE JUNE.

[Manukau heads obs]

thanks for the updates here Nev...
made it easy to stay up to date while I only had access via my phone while we were away

[Tornado Tim]

thanks for the updates here Nev...
made it easy to stay up to date while I only had access via my phone while we were away

Yup, Nev is fantastic at covering the TC's
Thanks mate.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I agree.
Thanks Nev.