Midget TC Solo NW of New Caledonia was named by RSMC Nadi yesterday evening, and this morning upgraded to Cat 2. However, she's expected to be relatively short-lived after brushing past eastern New Caledonia, then encountering higher wind-shear, lower SST's and mid-latitude westerlies…
WTPS11 NFFN 110000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 11/0119 UTC 2015 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE SOLO CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6S
161.3E AT 110000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.
…
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH PRIMARY
BANDS WRAPPING AROUND SUPPOSED LLCC. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTENT. SOLO LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH
0.9 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS DT=3.5, PT AND MET AGREE. FT BASED
ON DT THUS, YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING.
...
WTPS32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
...
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 161.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (SOLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 374 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING BENEATH A
COLD DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT, AS SEEN ON THE INFRARED BD CURVE,
HAS DEEPENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 102238Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS WELL DEFINED SHALLOW CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY AND IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE FIXES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND NFFN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON
CONCURRING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC SOLO IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BEING PARTIALLY
OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
TC 23P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC SOLO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER VWS AND
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT INTERACTS WITH AND GETS
EMBEDDED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THESE FACTORS WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z AND 120300Z.//
NNNN
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Yes, although TC Solo was only downgraded to Cat 1 this morning as she interacts with New Caledonia. Good convection, but displaced to the SE of the LLCC. Expect Solo to complete ETT later today…
WTPS32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 19.1S 162.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
...
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 163.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (SOLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED CONVECTION OBSCURING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC). AN 111108Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC SOLO
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 23P IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. TC SOLO WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER VWS AND
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT INTERACTS WITH AND GETS
EMBEDDED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THESE FACTORS WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 11/2003 UTC 2015 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE SOLO CENTRE [990HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.4S 163.9E AT 111800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LLCC WITH SOME CLOUD TOP WARNING. SOLO LIES TO THE SOUTH
OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. SST
AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN
WITH SUPPOSED LLCC ABOUT 40 NAUTICAL MILES FROM STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT YIELDS DT=2.5, MET AND PAT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING
T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
...
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