NZ Weather Forum

October is a typical month for westerlies and I'm sure they will come.

September is also a month for Westerlies in Canterbury.
Only 2mm here so far, days of forecasting rain and this is all we get so far.

3mm since Sunday, may as well start watering again as i cant see us getting much more

melja wrote:September is also a month for Westerlies in Canterbury.
Only 2mm here so far, days of forecasting rain and this is all we get so far.

Perhaps your expectations of the technology are too high? The models dont tend to handle sustained periods of easterly flow over NZ as well as they do westerlies. I agree the rainfall amounts for Canterbury have been up and down and not well handled thus far, but the models have performed reasonably well in picking the overall pattern and general weather conditions.

some people on this forum get too hung up on specific forecasted rain totals, or maximum /minimum temperatures, if you ask me

Manukau heads obs wrote:some people on this forum get too hung up on specific forecasted rain totals, or maximum /minimum temperatures, if you ask me

To be fair mate, if you were in the grips of drought and your livelihood depended on it you would certainly get hung up on forecast totals. Its been a shocker of a year for some despite fairly regular predictions of decent falls

yes, that is true, but I am not necassarily talking about this specific event, its always been a trend
Kaikoura looks to be getting good rain...pity that rain band was not a bit further south...i.e the ridge has edged everything a bit further nort...

Razor wrote:

Manukau heads obs wrote:some people on this forum get too hung up on specific forecasted rain totals, or maximum /minimum temperatures, if you ask me

To be fair mate, if you were in the grips of drought and your livelihood depended on it you would certainly get hung up on forecast totals. Its been a shocker of a year for some despite fairly regular predictions of decent falls

That's a tough one to find a solution to, I guess you could not look at it or pay attention to the forecasts when they are predicting rain for north Canterbury so you don't get your hopes up? Seems a drastic solution but how else can we find a way for desperate farmers not to get so frustrated when the rain forecasts are wrong?

A welcome 25mm here in Rangiora since mid morning, worked in Christchurch from 3am and bugger all there.
Should setup most folk round here now for spring, just need the warm now.

Thats a good dump of rain melja. Finally getting a bit here now, last looked there was 5mm.

Lovely warm day in Reefton. The southerly wind which has been rather cool the last few days has turned warm today.
Got to 22.5°C earlier, and currently 21.1°C.

Bit of reverse NWer happening on the coast.

melja wrote:Bit of reverse NWer happening on the coast.

indeed, but the reason i mentioned it was that for the last 3 days we've had the same breeze but it's been very cool. daytime temps have been ok (up to 18°C), but the wind itself was very cool whereas today the wind was warm.
same direction, but totally different feel.

einzack wrote:

melja wrote:Bit of reverse NWer happening on the coast.

indeed, but the reason i mentioned it was that for the last 3 days we've had the same breeze but it's been very cool. daytime temps have been ok (up to 18°C), but the wind itself was very cool whereas today the wind was warm.
same direction, but totally different feel.

Last few days not much rain on the east coast, today a lot more. Same as with a northwest flow, differential lapse rates as the moist air rises compared to drier air. You gotta love thermodynamics.

Thanks for the explanation Tony. I, along with a bunch of other people definitely learnt something from you yesterday! Many thanks.

Feeling like it might get even warmer today seeing as it's already 17.0°C, however quite different conditions to yesterday with no wind to speak of and not a cloud in the sky. It's got the feeling of a typical midsummers day - no wind, coolish morning (min was 3.6°C) which is warming quickly to become quite a scorcher. We're unlikely to get there seeing as it's a bit early for such warmth, but it really has that feel about it today.
My September station record of 22.9°C might be under threat. Seeing as my station will be coming down and relocating to East Otago next week, it'll be good to end of a high......

Local heavy showers over central Auckland last 30mins due to sea breeze convergence, was enjoying a fine day.

Had a downpour at Mt Roskill after 4pm.

Sparkling morning in Auckland.

Late afternoon shower risk this weekend, more likely tomorrow. A low thunder risk in the Waikato tomorrow.

So pleased to have missed a week of rotten weather back home. 3 very warm days in SF with highs to about 32C in the city and up to 39C in outer zones. Brief intervention of marine layer one day. Very toasty indeed in Ariizona with 34C highs and afternoon RH down to 10%. No "weather" at all so far - just persistent high pressures and blue dome conditions. The highs above were at Sedona - around 40C in Phoenix, cooler 26C at Flagstaff. May see some clouds at Canyon South Rim tomorrow.

USA has the best scenery in the world, Grand Canyon & Monument valley are beautiful places.

The afternoon showers never eventuated over Auckland today, fine,9- 19C.
Can see a couple of towering cumulus showers over Waikato. Upper air is cold over Waikato tomorrow but moisture is lacking, shower will probably struggle to develop like today.

Edit, a couple of evening showers over South Ak drifting in from Waikato

Tempted to go for a drive tomorrow and head north past Palmerston North, not looking all that promising but I'm craving a chase haha

Getting some quite heavy showers in the past hour or so, very isolated but after it cleared for most of the afternoon i thought it was done with.
Should be on the clear from tomorrow onwards gradually getting warmer maybe early 20s by mid week and a more el nino phase returning.

Yes, looking warmer for Canterbury later in the week Jason. 25C next weekend.

Dry air over Auckland and Waikato today limits the shower risk but with 700mb -9C, some showers expected. Low thunder risk Hauraki Plains.

A low thunder risk for east Auckland Monday.
Gisborne having the best chance.

a bit of low towering alto cu around..sign of instability

spwill wrote:USA has the best scenery in the world, Grand Canyon & Monument valley are beautiful places.

The afternoon showers never eventuated over Auckland today, fine,9- 19C.
Can see a couple of towering cumulus showers over Waikato. Upper air is cold over Waikato tomorrow but moisture is lacking, shower will probably struggle to develop like today.

Edit, a couple of evening showers over South Ak drifting in from Waikato

Afternoon and sunset drive around Sedona environs magical - truly beautiful. Canyon today magnificent. A bit of cirrus up there but Sedona still cloudless.