Increased Tornado Threat over Greece

[Tornado Tim]

I see that Greece is under an moderate to high risk of a Tornado over the next 24-48 hours.

Will be keeping an eye on the radar: http://www.hnms.gr/hnms/english/compone ... 2009:15:00

[Simon Culling]

Tim, Estofex have this as a level 2 for today and into Monday - se link below:

http://www.estofex.org/

[Simon Culling]

No reports in the media of tornadoes or waterspouts for Sunday into Monday, although the TV news did show a very wet and muddy refugee camp near the border with Macedonia.

[03Stormchaser]

I did see a few photos on Facebook of large hail drifts etc

[Simon Culling]

There is not a lot of literature on tornadoes in Greece but the linked pdf gives an annual average of less than one event, with the peak in autumn and early winter. I would suggest this is because of a lack of reporting.

http://www.adv-geosci.net/26/49/2010/ad ... 9-2010.pdf

[Nev]

Hey Simon, yes a lack of reporting for historical tornadoes appears to be the problem, as studies from what appears to be a fairly comprehensive data-base beginning in 2000 reveal quite a different story.

In the pdf links below, 'Tornadic events' consist of 'Tornadoes' (incl. landfalling waterspouts), 'Waterspouts' and 'Funnel-clouds' (the latter being useful when assessing threats to wind-turbines).

300 Years Historical Records of Tornadoes, Waterspouts and Funnel Clouds over Greece

Extreme weather phenomena in Greece: Tornadoes and waterspouts. An unknown threat for windfarms

Based on the 15 years from 2000 to 2014, the average number of 'tornadic events' per year is:
14.7 Tornadoes
45.0 Waterspouts
14.5 Funnel-clouds

Of course there are in exceptions. In September 2014, 17 waterspouts/tornadoes were reported at opposite ends of the country within a few days. There were also 144 waterspouts reported that year.

The majority of Greece's tornadoes are estimated to reach EF2. Tornado activity appears to be greatest around late autumn, followed by winter and then summer. Activity and frequency appears to be greater in western Greece, particularly in winter, whereas in northern Greece activity is greater in summer. Waterspouts in both the Aegean and the Ionian Sea occur mostly in summer and autumn, with a peak in September.

[Simon Culling]

Thanks for the two pdf links Nev. Under reporting of tornadic events was a common theme throughout Europe in the last century (!!) but there has been a huge increase in sightings in recent years in all countries and a much clearer picture has now emerged of the tornado threat in Europe. The advent of phone cameras has massively increased the count and provided good evidence.

In the UK, tornado reporting has been good for about 30-40 years thanks to the efforts of TORRO and this has enabled quite an accurate picture to emerge for the UK. Even prior to 1900 quite a few records have been unearthed from old newspapers and contemporary reports and the earliest reliable record for a tornado in the UK dates from 23rd October 1091 (yes, nearly a millennium ago) which occurred in London.