Prolonged rain event for NZ 27-30 May

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Tue 24/05/2016 21:48

It looks as if a big rapidly deepening low move in during Friday then persists through much of the weekend and into next week. It looks as if a SE flow may affect Canterbury for all of Saturday, Sunday and possibly even Monday which should provide large totals for many ski fields. Thoughts?

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Tue 24/05/2016 21:58

EC only going for around 20mm for mid-Canterbury in its latest run and GFS backing off as well, plenty of time for it to turn around though

I'm thinking area north of Nelson should do really well though...

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 24/05/2016 22:17

Not sure if I like the term "prolonged". A rain event yes, but could be over fairly quickly. I think the GFS is overblown with this (as it has been for the east coast with most of the expected storm events in the last 7 days or so), and the more rapid transit of the low signalled by the EC is more likely.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Thu 26/05/2016 10:05

Yes I am extremely hesitant to look at this as much more than a garden variety autumnal system

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Thu 26/05/2016 12:28

NIWA's own forecasting system going for 60mm for Christchurch on Saturday - not sure how much I believe that though...more likely to be 20-30mm overall at this stage...

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Fri 27/05/2016 06:36

Bradley wrote:NIWA's own forecasting system going for 60mm for Christchurch on Saturday - not sure how much I believe that though...more likely to be 20-30mm overall at this stage...

I can definitely see 20-30 mm to Bradley. Possibly some heavy falls early Saturday morning. But not a prolonged event

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Fri 27/05/2016 07:52

Wellington could get the worst of this quick moving front..

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Fri 27/05/2016 12:40

Yes, it did look "prolonged" for a time, but models have since changed. Maybe mods should change the title? Anyway, snow also looks as if it could fall as low as 600m starting tonight? Metservice mention this in there Snow Otago Warning, and they have a watch out for many areas for heavy rain.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Fri 27/05/2016 12:57

A heavy snow warning has just been issued for Canterbury above 700m with Porters Pass expected to get 20-30cm of snow from Saturday morning to Saturday night

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Fri 27/05/2016 13:03

Bradley wrote:A heavy snow warning has just been issued for Canterbury above 700m with Porters Pass expected to get 20-30cm of snow from Saturday morning to Saturday night

And Arthurs Pass 30-50cm!

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 28/05/2016 11:54

Not a prolonged event here. 23mm overnight and now it is fine, apart from high cloud with a light WSW blowing.

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sat 28/05/2016 12:11

27mm here...Mt Hutt over 32cm of snow

kiwisk8er · Unread post by **kiwisk8er** » Sat 28/05/2016 15:03

In the past 24 hours we've had 38.1 mm of rain in Tawa.

dogmelon · Unread post by **dogmelon** » Sat 28/05/2016 16:22

Its a start in recharging the parched ground at least. Its now softened up for any more rain and future rain events to soak in. Bring them on, we need the rain.

trickytiger · Unread post by **trickytiger** » Sat 28/05/2016 16:25

up to 37.8mm here now. My parents in Temuka have said they are sitting on 53mm. I also see that Timaru has had 57.4mm so far

snowstormwatcher · Unread post by **snowstormwatcher** » Sat 28/05/2016 17:42

trickytiger wrote:up to 37.8mm here now. My parents in Temuka have said they are sitting on 53mm. I also see that Timaru has had 57.4mm so far

43mm here between Pleasant point and Geraldine.The rain was quite coastal though with only 22mm in Fairlie.

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Sun 29/05/2016 07:13

38mm in Rangiora

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NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 29/05/2016 17:15

33.5mm @ Halswell.

Sent by my steam driven Heath Robinson Contraption

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Prolonged rain event for NZ 27-30 May

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