2016 Snowfall trends- General discussion

[Razor]

Hi all

I thought with the winter unfolding the way it has so far, it might be good to consolidate the various threads and generic snow trend/ speculations into one general topic for future reference

Hard to see anything to assist many of the South Island skifields before the school holidays kick off, which is a blow.

[SnwAddct]

Similar for Ruapehu, nothing significant on the cards. They have half of happy valley going and the alpine meadow with man made snow, unfortunately it looks like all of that could take a hit this Thurday with the low crossing the NI.

As the low departs there is a colder perdiod for the region, but with no moisture around the best option is some snow making, which generally needs a temp of -2.

Im due to head down mid august for 2 weeks, at this stage I really have no idea what the outcome will be.

[SnwAddct]

Does anyone have any info about 1998 and why Ruapehu ski field was only able to open for 3 weeks instead of the usual 4 - 4.5 months?

[NZstorm]

Volcanic activity from memory.

[SnwAddct]

I think that was 96/97, I beleive it was due to a lack of snow. Im wondering if this year shares anything similar with that year patern and temperature wise.

[TonyT]

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97/98 was a strong El Nino summer, leading into a strongish La Nina 98/99. So very similar to the current pattern.

[SnwAddct]

I thought as much. Cheers Tony for digging that out appreciate it. Quite a mystery as to what to expect in terms of snow over the next 2-3 months, especially after a very active May with good falls.

[Bradley]

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97/98 was a strong El Nino summer, leading into a strongish La Nina 98/99. So very similar to the current pattern.

The only year that sticks out there that completely goes against the trend of warm winters when el nino is in full swing was 1992 which had a fairly strong el nino but had a number of low level snow events and equal 2nd coldest winter in the last 60 years in Christchurch.

[cbm]

I think that was 96/97, I beleive it was due to a lack of snow. Im wondering if this year shares anything similar with that year patern and temperature wise.

Volcanic activity was actually 95 & 96. 97 was a poor snow year then 98 was near non-existent. Grabbed this graph years ago when it was on the Mt Ruapehu site. Don't have any higher res version, unfortunately.

[SnwAddct]

Potential for some nice dry snow for Mt Ruapehu next wednesday night through to Friday. Hopefully this one holds up on the models, has been present for couple days now. Who knows though..

[SnwAddct]

ACCESS also starting to play ball on next weeks system. Still a long way to go but nice to see some consistency.

[Razor]

Yes, still 5-6 days out but its starting to look more likely that a proper winter outbreak could land in time for some payback in the second week of the school hols for the skifields

[SnwAddct]

The latest run has the cold pool coming in a bit slower so will be some decent pre frontal rain for Ruapehu, but hopefully that will be followed up by some nice dry snow and lots of it.

[SnwAddct]

Well I like the look of this..

(Forecast for Turoa @ 1600masl)

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[NZstorm]

Queenstown ski fields should bag a good fall with the late week polar trough.

[SnwAddct]

Im thinking 40cm is on the cards for Ruapehu fields this week, in the scheme of things its rather a small ammount but its a start!

[Razor]

Queenstown ski fields should bag a good fall with the late week polar trough.

Not sure about big falls, but should get enough to keep open into second week of school hols. Now deep into July and no proper winter system yet.

[SirSlingy]

Getting pumped about this forecast snow on Ruapehu... holiday booked down there from next Wednesday... hope it materialises as its a bit sh*t down there at the moment **does a snow dance**

[SnwAddct]

Getting pumped about this forecast snow on Ruapehu... holiday booked down there from next Wednesday... hope it materialises as its a bit sh*t down there at the moment **does a snow dance**

Metservice going for 130cm+ over the next 3 days for about 2000m levels at Whakapapa. Should definitely kick start the season, not sure how much of that will fall down to 1600m (Carpark) Im sure there will be a decent amount. Im not due to head down till second week of August, glad I waited this year!

[jamie]

Yea im heading down early august but im quite flexible. So I will try time it to be there when a dump occurs so I can get the freshies.

[SnwAddct]

Good base building snow at Ruapehu last 3-4 days, Im guessing both Turoa and Whakapapa will be reporting a 1m base by tomorrow..

[SirSlingy]

Good base building snow at Ruapehu last 3-4 days, Im guessing both Turoa and Whakapapa will be reporting a 1m base by tomorrow..

Tick... shame its past mid July already... Hope it keeps building so we get a decent crack at a late season

[Bradley]

Talking to locals up near Sheffield and Springfield who have lived there for 50+ years they said they have never had a winter where they haven't had at least a few cms of snow on the ground at least once - they thought that 2014 might have been the first year to buck that trend but they got a wee 5cm snowfall in mid-August but this year is looking even worse then 2014 in terms of low level snowfall, there hasn't been any settling snow below 600m so far for Mid Canterbury which is basically unheard of, at least in 2014 they had a few snowfalls down to the 500-600m but so far this year - nothing! They aren't holding out much hope either for August to be any different to June and July the way the weather patterns have been so far!

[spwill]

There has been no south Tasman highs/strong ridging so far.
SE parts of Australia have had a couple of low level snow events ( low level for them). High pressure digging south of western Australia helping to pull the cold air up.

[matttbs]

It is still only just past halfway through winter. Tony did say months ago that august is looking like the best chance for southerly storms this winter