Storms Central NZ 14th Oct

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Fri 14/10/2016 06:54

The main areas of which the Met Service are forecasting storm activity today are the central parts of the country, with the highest risk from Waipara north to the Marlborough Sounds

Valid to: Midnight Friday 14 Oct 2016

Issued at: 9:08pm Thursday 13 Oct 2016

Updated at 9:08pm to increase the risk of thunderstorms with 10 to 20mm hail and heavy rain in north Canterbury and Marlborough from moderate to high during Friday afternoon. The low risk area for the Bay of Plenty has also been extended farther west.

An upper cold pool will move onto central New Zealand during Friday afternoon and evening, while a southerly wind change moves northwards through the area. This combination, as well as afternoon sea breezes in the Nelson area, are expected to lead to very unstable conditions over central New Zealand in the afternoon and evening.

In the South Island, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms about Nelson and a high risk in Marlborough and north Canterbury during Friday afternoon,with a lower risk of thunderstorms extending farther down into Buller, northern Westland and Canterbury. These thunderstorms will produce localised heavy rain of 10-25mm/hr, and hail of 10-20mm diameter. As the thunderstorms will be slow-moving, it is possible there could be significant hail accumulations in a few places which could cause damage to crops, orchards and vineyards, as well as making driving conditions hazardous.

In the North Island, the main risk of thunderstorms is about Wellington,southern Wairarapa, Kapiti, Horowhenua, and coastal parts of Manawatu and Wanganui in the evening and at night when a southerly wind change moves north through the area. A lower risk of thunderstorms covers other southern and western areas from Auckland to Wairarapa from Friday evening, and also for the Bay of Plenty for a time in the afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorms that occur in this area will be acompanied by brief heavy rain and hail.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 14/10/2016 07:00

good luck in getting some decent rain

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Fri 14/10/2016 07:23

Yes , fingers crossed Brian, ive even put off going to CHCH today to stay about here.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 14/10/2016 07:25

Looks like most of the moisture is going out of the trough now.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Fri 14/10/2016 09:00

This mornings update has the area of a high chance reduced and a low risk of severe added.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Fri 14/10/2016 15:14

Certainly not looking like there will be thunder&lightning any time soon here, seems the action is now going to happen further north, but at least we are getting some rain.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 14/10/2016 15:28

there is a replacement low developing right over the top of you Richard
"patience grasshopper"

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Fri 14/10/2016 16:23

Manukau heads obs wrote:there is a replacement low developing right over the top of you Richard
"patience grasshopper"

Ok

sit back and wait

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Fri 14/10/2016 16:45

good rain in Rangiora in the last hour with 6mm and pissing down still.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 14/10/2016 16:47

Looks like Motueka hit pretty badly by hail this afternoon. Orchardists have had a rough trot up that way in recent years http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/news ... heavy-rain

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 14/10/2016 17:24

Just come online.
Just the usual drizzly rubbish here today.
Anything happening there???????

BeaconHill · Unread post by **BeaconHill** » Fri 14/10/2016 20:22

Some good bubbly build ups streaming off the Marlborough coast this evening south of Wellington

IMG_0356.JPG

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Fri 14/10/2016 21:17

Up to 12mm of rain from this system so far

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Fri 14/10/2016 22:48

Richard wrote:Up to 12mm of rain from this system so far

3mm here about time the tables turned

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 14/10/2016 23:03

The lack of sunshine might of contributed to the lack of anything developing anywhere south of the convergence zone, just the usual boring dribble, whatever.
It's annoying for the NZThS to hear of thunderstorm (thundery) weather around the country, well forecasts of such, and all we get is 'clagg'.
Can't wait until we move to Geraldine. should be lots of juicy thunderstorms down there

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 15/10/2016 07:35

I think you could get a good summer storm season in Canterbury John. There seems to be a good run of cold upper level systems this spring and eventually they will start interacting with the sea breezes and daytime heating.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sat 15/10/2016 13:52

Thunderstorm in Napier right now. Has a good look to it. Down here for the weekend.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sat 15/10/2016 14:32

Absolute cracker of a storm here. Loving it!

Manukau heads obs · Sat 15/10/2016 15:29

did you plan that?

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sat 15/10/2016 17:55

Good work Jamie, i should have added the 15th as well to the topic

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sat 15/10/2016 17:58

Dean. wrote:
Richard wrote:Up to 12mm of rain from this system so far
3mm here about time the tables turned

Yes , been a long time coming where there's been more here than down your way, still not enough to be useful though, two days of NW and it will be gone.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 15/10/2016 21:13

NZstorm wrote:I think you could get a good summer storm season in Canterbury John. There seems to be a good run of cold upper level systems this spring and eventually they will start interacting with the sea breezes and daytime heating.

I hope so there, Steven.
This depending on timing and positioning of weather systems and other factors that go into the mix.
Will see what happens.

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