RSMC Nadi began issuing Advisories for a TD about 520km ESE of Niue this arvo. JTWC already calling it a TC based on 1 minute mean winds…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 210258 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8S
165.4W AT 210200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD15F MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. TD15F LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE REGION IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND
PATTERN YIELDS DT=2.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS
YIELDING, T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST-SOUTHEAST
WITH GRADUALL INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 210900 UTC 22.9S 161.6W MOV SE AT 18 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 212100 UTC 25.1S 158.6W MOV ESE AT 20 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 220900 UTC 27.3S 155.1W MOV ESE AT 28 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 222100 UTC 29.0S 150.5W MOV ESE AT 27 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 210800 UTC.
WTPS32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 166.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
…
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 165.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST
OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 202046Z METOP-
B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 202045Z ASCAT
IMAGE REVEALS AN OBLONG CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS 35 KNOT WINDS AND
SOME ISOLATED 40 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION,
WHICH SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. DESPITE
SOME SUBTROPICAL FORCING ON THE SYSTEM, THE ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS APPROXIMATELY 60NM, WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VALUES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SST 27-28C AND
STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEGRADE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH INCREASING VWS, COOLER SST
AND BAROCLINIC INTERACTION, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. TC 07P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE ENHANCED STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE DEEP TROUGH AND
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE TIGHTLY-GROUPED NUMERICAL MODEL
TRACKERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P
(ALFRED) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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TC Bart, our first TC of the season, was named by RSMC Nadi at 1am this morning…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 211338 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BART CENTRE [994HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.6S 162.3W AT 211200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. BART MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 19 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UP TO 500HPA. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST
AROUND 28 DEGREE CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND
PATTERN WITH 0.7 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON
DT. THUS YIELDING, T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 220000 UTC 24.9S 159.1W MOV SE AT 19 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 221200 UTC 27.3S 155.8W MOV SE AT 19 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE BART WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 212000 UTC.
WTPS32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (BART) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (BART) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 21.8S 162.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
…
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 161.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (BART), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH IS
EVIDENT IN A 210822Z ASCAT PASS. THE ASCAT DATA SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC
WIND FIELD WITH THE BULK OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING THE EIR LOOP AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM LOW REFLECTIVITY BANDING IN A 211036Z GPM 89GHZ
IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 40 KNOT WINDS SEEN IN
THE ASCAT PASS WHICH IS ON THE HIGHER END OF AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T3.0 (30-45 KNOTS). TC BART IS
LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LOW TO MODERATE VALUES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), WARM SST 27-28C AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEGRADE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
INCREASING VWS, COOLER SST AND BAROCLINIC INTERACTION, WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. TC 07P WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE ENHANCED STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEEP TROUGH AND SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z.//
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 211958 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BART CENTRE [994HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1S 159.6W
AT 211800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS/IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
29 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 26.6S 156.2W AT 220600 UTC AND NEAR 29.2S
152.6W AT 221800 UTC.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UP TO 500HPA. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST
AROUND 28 DEGREE CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND
PATTERN WITH 0.7 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON
DT. THUS YIELDING, T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP
THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 220600 UTC 26.6S 156.2W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 221800 UTC 29.2S 152.6W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 230600 UTC 31.7S 148.7W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 231800 UTC 33.6S 144.9W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE BART WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 220200 UTC.
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RSMC Nadi issued their Final Advisory this arvo, as TC Bart entered MS's AOR earlier today and it looks like they expect he'll go extratropical within the next 12 hours.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 220202 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BART CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6S 156.8W AT
220000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 AND GOES VIS/IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
CONVECTION REDUCED AND SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IN PAST
3 HOURS.
ORGANISATION BECOMING POOR DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TOWARDS THE
CENTRE. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. OUTFLOW GOOD
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 28
DEGREE CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 0.5
WRAP YIELDS DT=2.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. CI HELD HIGHER
DUE TO INTIAL WEAKENING. THUS YIELDING, T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 221200 UTC 28.1S 153.3W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 230000 UTC 30.5S 149.3W MOV SE AT 22 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 231200 UTC 32.5S 144.7W MOV SE AT 22 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 240000 UTC 34.2S 139.7W MOV SE AT 23 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC BART.
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MetService still have Bart as a TC at 8pm tonight (0700z)…
MetService - Pacific high seas forecast
TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING 314
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
Tropical Cyclone BART [995hPa] centre was located near 26.1 South 153.8 West at 220600 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 26.1S 153.8W at 220600 UTC.
Cyclone is moving eastsoutheast 30 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 130 nautical miles of centre in the eastern semicircle and within 60 nautical miles of centre in the western semicircle.
Forecast position near 27.9S 150.0W at 221800 UTC
and near 29.4S 145.8W at 230600 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 313.
Issued at 8:03pm Wednesday 22 Feb 2017
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MS still had Bart as a TC earlier this morning, but convection has reduced significantly since…
MetService - Pacific high seas forecast
TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING 316
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
Tropical Cyclone BART [995hPa] centre was located near 26.9 South 151.6 West at 221200 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 26.9S 151.6W at 221200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving eastsoutheast 20 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 130 nautical miles of centre in the eastern semicircle and within 60 nautical miles of centre in the western semicircle.
Forecast position near 28.0S 148.5W at 230000 UTC
and near 29.6S 144.5W at 231200 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 314.
Issued at 1:40am Thursday 23 Feb 2017
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MS have just downgraded Bart to an extratropical cyclone…
MetService - Pacific high seas forecast
GALE WARNING 319
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
AT 221800UTC
Low 994hPa, former Cyclone BART, near 29S 151W moving eastsoutheast 20kt.
Within 240 nautical miles of low in eastern semicircle: Clockwise 35kt.
Gale area moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 316.
