The developing TD currently passing over Vanuatu tonight was given TC status by JTWC this afternoon (based on 1-minute mean winds) and expect it to rapidly intensify under very favourable conditions to at least Cat 3 by Monday. I expect RSMC Nadi will probably name it tonight…
WTPS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 168.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
…
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 168.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 441 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON RECENT FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A 172256Z GMI IMAGE WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 2221Z
PARTIAL ASCAT METOP-A IMAGE SHOWING 30-35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TC 16P IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30C) UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF TWO RIDGES,
ONE TO THE EAST AND ONE TO THE WEST. THESE TWO RIDGES WILL STEER THE
STORM GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH ALONG AN S-CURVE SHAPED TRACK. THESE
RIDGES WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS RESULTING IN LIKELY NEAR-TERM
RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK
OF 90 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BECOME
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, BEGINNING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETING BY TAU 120. THE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 070530).//
NNNN
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 080800 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 167.5E
AT 080600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI VIS/EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT
05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAIN PERSISTENT NEAR LLCC. ORGANIZATION HAS
IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING
TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. TD20F LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
OUTFLOW GOOD WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.55 WRAP YEIDS DT=2.5, PT AND MET
AGREE. THUS, YEILDING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPCAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS IS HIGH.
...
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TC Cook was named by RSMC Nadi at around 1:30am NZST this morning. JTWC now expect him to reach Cat 4 just prior to landfall over New Caledonia on Monday night…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 081355 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 167.4E AT
081200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 7 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAIN PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANIZATION
HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BANDS
WRAPPING ONTO LLCC. CYCLONE LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0, PT
AND MET AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON AN INTIAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK THAN SOUTHEAST
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
…
WTPS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 167.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
...
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 167.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081052Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TIGHTLY
CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM.
THIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITIES OF T3.0 (45-55 KNOTS) FROM ALL FIX AGENCIES, AND
SATCON/ADT VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), SSTS OF 30C, AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES NEAR 65. TC COOK IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR ANCHORED TO THE EAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH TAU 48 CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. TC COOK WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES
THE STR RIDGE AXIS WHERE VWS REMAINS LOW AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
MAXIMIZED. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS
AROUND TAU 48 JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER NEW CALEDONIA. BEYOND TAU
48, TC 16P WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND
STRONGER VWS, AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. TC COOK IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE
FULL EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MID-
LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, HOWEVER THE SPREAD IN THE TRACKERS
INCREASE TO 350 NM BY TAU 96. THERE IS HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z.//
NNNN
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TC Cook was upgraded to Cat 2 by RSMC Nadi just after 7am this morning…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 081959 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK CENTRE [985HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.0S 167.4E AT 081800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH TIGHT BANDIND WRAPPING INTO
THE SYSTEM. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. CYCLONE LIES IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELCIUS. COOK TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED THE THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.8
WRAP YIELDS DT=3.5, PT AND MET AGREE. THUS, YIELDING
T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON AN INTIAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK THAN SOUTHEAST
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
...
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TC Cook has intensified a little more after passing through central Vanuatu, just north of Port Vila this morning and Nadi expect him to reach Cat 3 by midday tomorrow…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 090138 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK CENTRE [984HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.6S 167.6E AT 090000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT
ABOUT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH TIGHT BANDIND WRAPPING INTO
THE SYSTEM. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. CYCLONE LIES IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELCIUS. COOK TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED THE THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
0.85 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.5, PT AND MET AGREE. THUS, YIELDING
T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON AN INTIAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK THAN SOUTHEAST
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
...
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JTWC now going for peak intensity of mid Cat 3 by landfall directly over New Caledonia tomorrow night…
WTPS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 167.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
...
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 167.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 082200Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS AN IMPROVING SYSTEM
WITH DEEPENING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON BOTH
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0
(55 TO 65 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND SSTS
NEAR 29 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TC COOK IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
AN EXTENSION OF THE STEERING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH
GUIDING THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
DURING THIS TIME THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ALLOWING TC
COOK TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS. TC COOK IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK DIRECTLY OVER NEW CALEDONIA AROUND TAU 36, AT THE SAME TIME A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEAKENING THE STEERING
RIDGE SHIFTING THE SYSTEM TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. STEADY WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AFTER TAU 36 AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. TC COOK WILL TRANSITION
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 091500Z AND 100300Z.//
NNNN
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TC Cook was upgraded to Cat 3 a little earlier than expected at around 1:30am this morning…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 091417 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK CENTRE 975HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4S
166.7E AT 091200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND
IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.
…
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BANDS CONTINUE TO
WRAP ONTO LLCC. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. CYCLONE LIES IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. COOK TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED THE THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED EYE
PATTERN YIELDS DT=4.5, PT=4.0 AND MET=4.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS,
YIELDING T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON AN INTIAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK THAN SOUTHEAST
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION INTIALLY THAN GRADUAL WEAKENING.
WTPS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 18.4S 166.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
...
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 166.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST 12-HOURS. A 090926Z GPM 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE, ALSO SIGNALING
INTENSIFICATION, AND SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY AGENCY
DVORAKS RANGING FROM T3.5-4.5 (55 TO 77 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SUPPORT STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND
WARM (29C) SSTS. TC COOK IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR ANCHORED TO THE EAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY. TC COOK WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE STR RIDGE AXIS WHERE VWS REMAINS LOW
AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MAXIMIZED. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS AT TAU 24 JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER NEW
CALEDONIA. BEYOND TAU 24, TC 16P WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION AND STRONGER VWS, AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. TC COOK IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE FULL EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72, AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH INTERACTION, LENDING HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN
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Yep, Midget TC Cook intensified fairly rapidly overnight and also developed a fairly discernible pinhole eye this morning. RSMC Nadi now expecting him to reach Cat 4 later today, just prior to landfall with New Caledonia this evening…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 092006 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK CENTRE [970HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.3S 166.4E AT 091800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR
HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 85 KNOTS.
…
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS CONSOLIDATING THE
CENTRE AND TIGHTLY WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD.
CYCLONE LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD WITH STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. COOK TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED THE THE EAST.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH LG EYE, LG SURROUND WITH W
SURROUNDING RING NO EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDS DT=5.0, PT=5.0 AND
MET=5.0. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON AN INTIAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK THEN TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION INTIALLY THEN GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 20.9S 166.0E MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 22.7S 166.4E MOV S AT 09 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 24.3S 167.8E MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 25.6S 169.8E MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON COOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
100200 UTC.
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Looks like TC Cook made landfall over New Caledonia as a Cat 3 at about 0420z today after sporting a pretty good eye earlier this afternoon…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 100210 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK CENTRE [970HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.5S 165.9E AT 100000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR
HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY WITH PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.
…
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND AND
CONSOLIDATING THE CENTRE. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. CYCLONE LIES IN
A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. COOK TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED THE EAST.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH DG EYE, LG SURROUND WITH LG
SURROUNDING RING NO EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDS DT=5.0, PT=5.0 AND
MET=5.0. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON AN INTIAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK THEN TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION INTIALLY THEN GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
WTPS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 165.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
…
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 165.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM NORTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
092246Z GMI MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE AND A 092236Z ASCAT PASS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90
KNOTS. TC 16P HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
CONSOLIDATING AROUND A 16 NM EYE. TC 16P CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM IN THE NEAR TERM, CARRYING THE CYCLONE TOWARD
LANDFALL IN CENTRAL GRANDE TERRE ISLAND, NEW CALEDONIA, WITHIN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SLIGHT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION, DRIVEN BY LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, IS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. FOLLOWING LANDFALL, TC 16P WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE POLEWARD ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY TOWARD THE BASE
OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE THROUGH TAU 48. STEADY WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER TAU 24 AS INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL INTERACT
DIRECTLY WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.//
NNNN
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Although currently still at Cat 3, convection has decreased considerably overnight and looks to be offset to the SE since interacting with New Caledonia. With increasingly less favourable conditions, RSMC Nadi now expect TC Cook will become extratropical in the next 24 hours…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 101438 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK CENTRE 965HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9S
165.8E AT 101200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND
IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT
ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.
…
EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED AND NO LONGER DISCERNABLE. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING IN PAST
6 HOURS. ORGANISATION BECOMING POOR DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. CYCLONE
LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES
CELCIUS. COOK TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE, OW
SURROUND WITH BF. YIELDS, DT=4.0 MET 4.0 AND PT=4.0. FT BASED ON MET.
THUS, YIELDING T4.0/5.0/W0.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.
…
WTPS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 22.8S 165.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
…
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 166.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 47 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION AND WARMING CLOUDS-
TOPS OVER THE SYSTEM SINCE IT MADE LANDFALL OVER NEW CALEDONIA
AROUND 04Z. HOWEVER, A 101009Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE STILL
REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
CIRCULATION. THIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY AGENCY
DVORAKS RANGING FROM 4.0-5.0 (65-90 KNOTS) AND SATCON VALUES AROUND
75 KNOTS. DESPITE AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER SUPPORTIVE OF DEVELOPMENT
WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS AND SSTS
DECREASING TO 27C. TC COOK IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR ANCHORED TO THE EAST. THIS
FEATURE WILL RE-ORIENT TO THE NORTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN
THE STR AND THE TROUGH THROUGH TAU 48. TC COOK IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
STEADILY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO UNDERGO AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 48, AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, WITH SOME MINOR SPEED DIFFERENCES,
LENDING HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110300Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN
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RSMC Nadi downgraded Cook to Cat 2 around 7am NZST this morning. LLCC now partially exposed…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 101952 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK CENTRE [975HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
23.7S 166.1E AT 101800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR
AND IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH
AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS.
…
LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
IN PAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS ALSO DECREASED SLIGHTLY. CYCLONE
LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH
WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 26-27 DEGREES CELCIUS. COOK
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.95 WRAP. YIELDS, DT=3.5 MET 3.5
AND PT=3.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH FURTHER WEAKENING.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 25.4S 167.5E MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 26.7S 169.6E MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 28.1S 171.9E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
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TC Cook becoming a lot less organised today as he encounters less favourable conditions. Convection has decreased and is sheared well to the SE, leaving its LLCC fairly exposed. JTWC expect he'll begin extratropical transition in the next 12 hours…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 110152 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK CENTRE [980HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.6S 166.0E AT 110000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 VIS
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SECTOR FROM
NORTH THROUGH EAST TO WEST.
…
LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
IN PAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS ALSO DECREASED. CYCLONE LIES IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH WITH
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 26-27 DEGREES CELCIUS. COOK IS
BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC ABOUT 1/3
DEGRESS INTO STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT YIELDS, DT=3.5 MET 3.5 AND
PT=3.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS. CI HELD
HIGH DUE TO CI RULES FOR WEAKENING.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH FURTHER WEAKENING.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 26.1S 167.9E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 27.4S 170.1E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 28.9S 172.5E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON COOK.
WTPS31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 24.9S 166.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
…
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 25.3S 167.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE AND DEGRADE AS THE
SYSTEM DRIFTS DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE
102215Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 16P HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVED INTO STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25
KNOTS AND INCREASING). A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS AND IS
PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. TC COOK IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE DEEPER INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12, BECOMING A GALE-FORCE COLD
BAROCLINIC LOW BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.//
NNNN
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Rapidly decaying TC Cook was downgraded to Cat 1 by MetService just after 1am this morning. JTWC also issued its final TC Warning this morning…
TCWC Wellington Storm Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING 279
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone COOK [990hPa] centre was located near 26.6 South 168.8 East at 111200 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 26.6S 168.8E at 111200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving eastsoutheast 15 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre in the sector from north through east to west and within 80 nautical miles of centre in the northwest quadrant.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 268.
Issued at 1:22am Wednesday 12 Apr 2017
WTPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 26.6S 168.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
…
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 168.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM SOUTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 111141Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWING AN
INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). TC COOK IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC REGION, AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z
IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN
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MetService still have Cook as a Cat 1 TC this morning and, going by last night's track-map, don't expect extratropical transition to be complete until later this afternoon. Current central mean winds of 35kt are also expected to rise to 40kt by 6pm today and 50kt by 6am tomorrow morning…
TCWC Wellington Storm Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE STORM WARNING 287
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone COOK [990hPa] centre was located near 27.1 South 170.5 East at 111800 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 27.1S 170.5E at 111800 UTC.
Cyclone is moving eastsoutheast 15 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre rising to 40 knots by 120600 UTC and then rising to 50 knots by 121800 UTC with high to very high sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre in the sector from north through east to west and within 80 nautical miles of centre in the northwest quadrant with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Forecast position near 29.3S 172.6E at 120600 UTC
and near 32.7S 175.1E at 121800 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 279.
Issued at 7:41am Wednesday 12 Apr 2017
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Ex-TC Cook was officially declared an extratropical cyclone by MetService while approximately 730 km NNW of Cape Reinga at around midday today…
TCWC Wellington Storm Warning
STORM WARNING 297
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
AT 120000UTC
Low 990hPa, former Cyclone COOK, near 28S 171E moving southeast 20kt.
1. Within 120 nautical miles of low in eastern quadrant: Clockwise 35kt rising to 50kt next 6-12 hours.
2. Outside area 1 and within 180 nautical miles of low in eastern semicircle: Clockwise 35kt.
3. Outside areas 1 and 2 and within 120 nautical miles of low in western semicircle: Clockwise 35kt.
Storm and gale areas moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 287.
Issued at 1:06pm Wednesday 12 Apr 2017
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