JTWC issued another TC Formation Alert earlier this morning for the TD currently just south of the Samoan Islands. RSMC currently rate its short-term chances as 'low'…
WTPS21 PGTW 081430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 230 NM RADIUS OF 15.9S 172.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 081400Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 172.5W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.3S 173.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 172.5W, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 080944Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CENTER. A 072114Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION AND 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND BROAD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. A
RECENT 850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH COOLER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL
INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE
WEAK DEVELOPMENT AND A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
MOTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091430Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 080850 UTC.
…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD22F [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16.7S 172.2W AT
080600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AND UPPER RIDGE IN A WEAK TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREE CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
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JTWC calling the TD south of Samoa a TC this afternoon (based on 1 minute mean winds). Nadi expect to name him in the next 12 hours or so…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 090235 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 172.7W
AT 090000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS
IMPROVED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO
LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL SUB TROPICAL HIGH. DVORAL
ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN OF 0.55 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL,
YIELDS DT=2.5, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED DT. THUS YIELDING,
T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 14.9S 174.4W MOV WNW AT 08 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 14.9S 176.1W MOV W AT 08 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 15.0S 178.0W MOV W AT 09 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 15.4S 179.8W MOV W AT 09 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 090800 UTC OR EARLIER.
WTPS32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 15.3S 172.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
...
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 173.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED AS
FORMATIVE BANDS, ALBEIT SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED, WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO
A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
CLOSED LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 082311Z 37GHZ GPM
MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0
TO T3.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH MINIMAL OUTFLOW. TC 19P IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING WESTWARD
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE MAKING A U-TURN SOUTHWARD
AFTER TAU 72. THE LACK OF AN OUTFLOW MECHANISM WILL MOSTLY STIFLE ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, FINALLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 120 AS IT DRAGS
ACROSS FIJI. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK AND EVENTUAL SOUTHWARD TURN, HOWEVER, THERE
ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK SPEED. IN VIEW OF THIS, PLUS
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INITIAL SET OF FORECAST
AIDS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(DONNA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 081430).//
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TC Ella, bound for Fiji, was named by RSMC Nadi this afternoon…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 090447 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 172.7W AT
090300 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 4 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS
IMPROVED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO
LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL SUB TROPICAL HIGH. DVORAL
ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN OF 0.7 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDS
DT=3.0, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED DT. THUS YIELDING,
T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091500 UTC 14.7S 174.5W MOV WNW AT 09 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100300 UTC 14.7S 176.2W MOV W AT 09 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101500 UTC 14.9S 178.0W MOV W AT 09 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110300 UTC 15.3S 179.5W MOV W AT 08 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 090800 UTC.
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Nadi now have Ella turning poleward by Friday and sparing Fiji's main islands around Friday…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 092018 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA CENTRE 993HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 173.7W AT
091800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 VIS/EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 04 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40
KNOTS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS
IMPROVED WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO
MID LEVEL SUB TROPICAL HIGH. DVORAL ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN
OF 0.7 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDS DT=3.0, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT
BASED DT. THUS YIELDING, T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 15.2S 175.4W MOV W AT 08 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 15.5S 177.1W MOV W AT 08 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 16.1S 178.4W MOV WSW AT 08 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 16.7S 178.9W MOV WSW AT 07 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 091400 UTC.
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Some intensification is expected with TC Ella, but she should encounter stronger wind shear by the time she reaches Fiji and weaken. However, JTWC think she'll veer WNW of FijI's main islands, whereas Nadi think she'll veer WSW…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 100155 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA, CATEGORY 1, CENTRE 992HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.4S 174.3W AT 100000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR
AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST
AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO
MID LEVEL SUB TROPICAL HIGH. DVORAL ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN
OF 0.7 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDS DT=3.0, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT
BASED DT. THUS YIELDING, T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 14.6S 176.0W MOV W AT 08 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 15.0S 177.4W MOV WSW AT 08 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 15.6S 178.3W MOV WSW AT 07 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 16.1S 178.6W MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 100800 UTC OR EARLIER.
WTPS32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 174.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
...
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 174.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 217 NM WEST OF
PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM WHICH HAS
BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A DISORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF A 2118Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS
INDICATING A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ASCAT
DATA SHOWING A FEW 40 KNOT WINDS SOUTH OF THE LLCC AS WELL AS MULTI-
AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0
(35 TO 45 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS AND MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES OF 15-20 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER STRONG WESTERLY MID-LATITUDE
FLOW TO THE SOUTH IS RESTRICTING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND EXHAUST OF TC
ELLA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. TC ELLA IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THE
FORECAST IS FOR ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY
BY TAU 24. THEREAFTER, TC ELLA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VWS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY
AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE REMAINING LLCC TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AND DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A BIFURCATION OCCURRING BEYOND
THIS POINT. NAVGEM AND GFDN ARE THE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS, AND INDICATE
A POSSIBLE ALTERNATE SCENARIO OF A TRACK SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER TAU 72. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TAKE THE
OPPOSITE TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TRACK TOWARDS WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THEN TURING NORTHWEST IN
THE LATER TAUS. DUE TO THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AND THE
BIFURCATION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.
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RSMC Nadi upgraded Ella to Cat 2 around 7pm this evening. Good central flaring this afternoon.
Seems they have Fiji's main islands lined up again for a direct hit around Saturday night as a Cat 2…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 100826 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA CENTRE 987HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 175.3W AT
100600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT OVER LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED
WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID
LEVEL SUB TROPICAL HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN OF
0.9 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDS DT=3.5, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED
DT. THUS YIELDING, T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 14.7S 176.2W MOV WSW AT 05 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 14.9S 177.3W MOV WSW AT 05 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 15.2S 178.3W MOV WSW AT 05 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 15.6S 178.9W MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
TTHE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ELLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
101400 UTC OR EARLIER.
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I was in Fiji (Malolo Lailai islands) last weekend, and have some friends staying on until Saturday. This will make their flight plans interesting. Keeping them apprised.
Nadi now expecting Ella to reach Cat 3 by Saturday and looking close to making landfall on Vanua Levu later that night. However, JTWC still expect her to pass a little further north of Vanua Levu and to have weakened to around Cat 1 by then…
WTPS32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 14.3S 176.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
...
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 176.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF AVATA, SAMOA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FURTHER CONSOLIDATION WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A
100950Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 50 KNOTS IS
ALSO BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE IN AGREEMENT WITH
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45 TO 55 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS
NEAR 29 CELSIUS AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY A POOR
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT. CURRENTLY TC ELLA IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD GUIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TC ELLA WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST SLIGHTLY ERODING THE STEERING RIDGE AND
INTRODUCING MODERATE WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TURNS
TO THE NORTHWEST AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK MOTION UP TO TAU 36.
THEREAFTER, MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE MIXED AS TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD OR TURN SOUTHWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE
TROUGH. DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 101952 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 176.2W AT
101800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50
KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED WITH
PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
SYSTEM STEERED WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SUB TROPICAL
HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN OF 1.0 WRAP ON LOG 10
SPIRAL, YIELDS DT=3.5, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED DT. THUS YIELDING,
3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 14.7S 177.5W MOV WSW AT 07 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 15.1S 178.6W MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 15.4S 179.4W MOV WSW AT 05 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 15.6S 179.8W MOV WSW AT 05 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
TTHE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ELLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
110200 UTC OR EARLIER.
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Looking better organised today, with some good central flaring this afternoon. Nadi now has Ella tracking more in line with JTWC and passing just north of Fiji's Vanua Levu, as a Cat 3 guest for the weekend.
On her current track, Nadi also expect Ella to pass directly over the Wallis and Futuna Islands (pop. 15,500) just before midnight tonight…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 110137 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 177.0W AT
110000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 9
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANISATION GOOD WITH PRIMARY
BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM
STEERED WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SUB TROPICAL HIGH.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN OF 0.9 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL,
YIELDS DT=3.5, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED DT. THUS YIELDING,
T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 14.3S 178.3W MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 14.7S 179.3W MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 14.9S 179.9E MOV WSW AT 05 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 14.9S 179.2E MOV WSW AT 05 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
TTHE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ELLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
110800 UTC OR EARLIER.
WTPS32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 14.3S 176.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
...
RREMARKS:
10300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 177.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM NORTHEAST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PULSATING
DEEP CONVECTION, WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 102301Z GPM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A WELL DEFINED 20 NM DIAMETER MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF
55 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS IN AN AREA OF
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIR OUTFLOW, HOWEVER,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS). CURRENTLY, ELLA IS
TRACKING INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH, CAUSING A SLOW DOWN IN FORWARD MOTION. THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS A
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND RE-ORIENTS THE STEERING FLOW. TC
ELLA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AROUND TAU 72 IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER
LEVELS OF VWS DUE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WHILE THE INTENSITY
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN POOR AGREEMENT, HWRF, ECMWF, AND GFS ALL
REFLECT THE SYSTEM ERODING AROUND TAU 72. TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. AFTER TAU 24, THE
MODELS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD, BOTH IN THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.//
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Bit of a turnaround by Nadi on future strengths of Ella, which is more in JTWC. Ella should weaken as she nears Fiji's main islands tomorrow then veer WNW. Not much change in strength overnight, but she did look a little weaker for a time. Nadi had Ella about 80 km due east of Wallis and Futuna at midnight…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 111415 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 177.4W AT
111200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 3
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANIZATION REMAINS FAIR. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID
LEVEL SUB TROPICAL HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN OF
0.6 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDS DT=3.0, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED
DT. CI HELD HIGH DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAIN THUS YIELDING,
T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 14.8S 178.4W MOV WSW AT 5 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 15.2S 179.1W MOV WSW AT 4 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 15.2S 179.7W MOV W AT 3 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 15.1S 179.7E MOV WNW AT 3 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
TTHE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ELLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
112000 UTC OR EARLIER.
WTPS32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 177.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
...
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 177.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 333 NM
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A NEARLY SYMMETRIC AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER, AND CONCEALING THE CENTER. A
110928Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE, HOWEVER, SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55 TO 65
KNOTS). OVERALL, THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED NEAR 65 KNOTS
AROUND 11/04Z AND SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. TC 19P IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AS A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATES EASTWARD. AFTER TAU 24, THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH SHOULD DRIVE THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. TC ELLA SHOULD RE-
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BUT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AND
CONVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z.//
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Ella has intensified somewhat today, despite some moderate shear, and detoured a little to the NW today. JTWC now also have her on the equivalent of about a low Cat 3. At around midday, Ella passed just north of Wallis and Futuna Islands by about 45 km according to JTWC, or by about 70 km according to Nadi.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 120144 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA CENTRE 980HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 178.0W AT
120000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 VIS AND EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 55 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANIZATION GOOD WITH SECONDARY
BAND TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC DEEP CONVECTION. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL
SUB TROPICAL HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE, CENTRE
EMBEDDED IN DG, YIELDS DT=4.0, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED DT. THUS
YIELDING, T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 14.0S 178.7W MOV W AT 04 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 14.1S 179.2W MOV W AT 03 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 14.1S 179.7W MOV W AT 03 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 14.0S 179.6E MOV W AT 03 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
TTHE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ELLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
120800 UTC OR EARLIER.
WTPS32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 178.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
...
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 178.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 326 NM
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT CONVECTIVE
CORE, WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY TO THE EAST. AN 112036Z
METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE AND ASSOCIATED SCAT PASS SUPPORTS THE
ASSESSMENT OF A VERY COMPACT CORE OF STRONG WINDS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS, NEAR THE TOP OF THE RANGE OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS), GIVEN
THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 19P IS CURRENTLY UNDER AN UPPER-
LEVEL COL, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
RECENT INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED DESPITE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15-20 KTS) AND POOR OUTFLOW IN THE COL. ELLA IS TRACKING IN A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW TC 19P TO RETURN TO
A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEGINNING NEAR TAU 36 AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED. A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL
STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE HWRF MODEL, WHICH DISSIPATES
THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121500Z AND 130300Z.
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Nadi showed a slight increase in strength earlier last night, and JTWC a slight decrease, which brings them more in agreement. Around midnight, compact Ella was about 80-90 km NNW of Wallis and Futuna and has resumed her more westerly track. Nadi had her central pressure down to 977 hPa, with mean winds up to 110 km/h…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 121412 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA CENTRE 977HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 178.3W AT
121200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 3
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 60 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANIZATION GOOD WITH SECONDARY
BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO DEEP CONVECTION. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND
29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID LEVEL SUB TROPICAL HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTER
IN MG, YIELDS DT=4.0, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED DT. THUS YIELDING,
T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 13.9S 178.8W MOV W AT 3 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 14.1S 179.3W MOV W AT 3 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 14.1S 179.9E MOV W AT 5 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 14.0S 178.6E MOV W AT 7 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
TTHE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ELLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
122000 UTC OR EARLIER.
WTPS32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 13.6S 178.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
...
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 178.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. A 121126Z GMI 37 GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ALONG THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE SOME PRESSURE / SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO ENCROACHING WESTERLIES AND MODERATE
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS). TC 19P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AS A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATES EASTWARD. AFTER TAU 12, THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH SHOULD DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. TC ELLA SHOULD WEAKEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY FLOW AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND 131500Z.//
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Ella only tracking very slowly westward today, with convection more shallow and showing signs of weekening a little as she encouters stronger vertical wind shear from the west…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 130200 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA CENTRE 983HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 178.8W AT
130000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 VIS AND EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 2
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 60 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANIZATION GOOD. SYSTEM LIES
JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED WESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SUB TROPICAL HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTER IN DG, YIELDS DT=4.0, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT
BASED MET. THUS YIELDING, T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 13.5S 179.5W MOV W AT 03 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 13.3S 179.5E MOV W AT 04 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 13.1S 178.1E MOV W AT 05 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 13.2S 176.5E MOV W AT 06 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
TTHE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ELLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
130800 UTC OR EARLIER.
WTPS32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 178.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
…
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 179.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS
BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND SHEARED FURTHER EASTWARD FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 122256Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED
STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
BEGUN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ADDITIONALLY, OUTFLOW REMAINS CONSTRAINED. TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. HIGH VWS IN ADDITION TO SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY
SOONER. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
131500Z AND 140300Z.//
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Convection looks to have deepened a little since late yesterday, with good central and east of LLCC flaring overnight. However, that has subsided in the last few hours. JTWC still have her weakening with reduced wind-speeds earlier this morning, while Nadi still shows little change. Ella's centre should be crossing the dateline about now.
WTPS32 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 13.8S 179.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
...
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 179.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON RECENT
AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55
KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T 3.5 (55 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE
DETERIORATED IN THE UPPER-LEVELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS LEADING TO
THE DECLINING INTENSITY. HOWEVER WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED AN
APPROACHING TROUGH SEEMS TO HAVE STABILIZED. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL TO UNFAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, HIGH
WIND SHEAR FROM THE WESTERLY JET WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE
TRACK PHILOSOPHY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
131200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.//
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B20 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 131937 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA CENTRE 981HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 179.3W AT
131800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 60 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT BUT REDUCED IN RADIAL EXTENT WITH
CLOUD TOP WARMING. ORGANIZATION GOOD. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
SYSTEM STEERED WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SUB
TROPICAL HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTER IN DG, YIELDS
DT=4.0, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED MET. THUS YIELDING,
T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 13.1S 179.6E MOV WNW AT 6 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 13.0S 177.7E MOV W AT 7 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 13.0S 175.7E MOV W AT 8 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 13.3S 173.8E MOV W AT 8 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
TTHE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ELLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
140200 UTC OR EARLIER.
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Ella crossed the dateline this morning. She looks to have weakened quite a bit more today, with central convection unraveling and sheared more to the east. JTWC already has her as the equivalent of a Cat 1, although Nadi currently don't expect to do the same until later tomorrow.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B21 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 140130 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 179.9E AT
140000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 VIS AND EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 9 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REDUCED IN RADIAL EXTENT WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING.
ORGANIZATION FAIR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM
STEERED WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SUB TROPICAL
HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTER IN OW, YIELDS DT=3.5,
MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED MET. CI HELD HIGH DUE TO INITIAL
WEAKENING. THUS YIELDING, T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24HRS
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 13.0S 178.6E MOV W AT 6 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 13.0S 177.1E MOV W AT 7 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 13.3S 175.6E MOV W AT 7 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 13.6S 174.2E MOV W AT 7 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
TTHE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ELLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
140800 UTC OR EARLIER.
WTPS32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 12.9S 179.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
...
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 179.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 316 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AS EVIDENCED BY
WARMED AND UNRAVELING CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT REMAINS SHEARED FROM
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES IDENTIFYING A
DEFINED LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND SATCON DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND ON A 132135Z ASCAT PASS AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING
TREND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. THESE
FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE TC 19P, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY
TAU 36, POSSIBLY SOONER. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LEADING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.//
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Ella was downgraded to Cat 1 by RSMC Nadi at around 4pm this afternoon and they now expect her to have undergone extratropical transition by around morning. LLCC exposed, convection sheared to east.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B22 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 140448 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 178.4E AT
140300 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40
KNOTS.
LLCC EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. ORGANIZATION
BECOMING POOR. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED WESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SUB TROPICAL HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN OF 90NM FROM T GRADIENT, YIELDS DT=2.0,
MET=2.5 AND PAT=2.0. FT BASED DT. THUS YIELDING, T2.0/3.0/W2.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 141500 UTC 12.7S 176.7E MOV W AT 8 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 150300 UTC 13.0S 174.8E MOV W AT 9 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 151500 UTC 13.4S 172.9E MOV W AT 9 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 160300 UTC 13.8S 170.9E MOV W AT 9 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
TTHE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ELLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
132000 UTC OR EARLIER.
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Ella was downgraded to an extratropical cyclone by RSMC Nadi just after midnight last night…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B24 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 141303 UTC.
EEX-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 176.3E
AT 141200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.
LLCC EXPOSED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND IS DISPLACED TO THE
EAST OF LLCC. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM STEERED WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID LEVEL SUB TROPICAL HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN
OF <75NM FROM T GRADIENT, YIELDS DT=2.0, MET=2.5 AND PAT=2.0. FT
BASED MET. THUS YIELDING, T2.5/2.5/W1.5/24HRS
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 12.0S 174.5E MOV W AT 09 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 12.0S 172.7E MOV W AT 08 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 12.2S 171.2E MOV W AT 08 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 12.3S 169.5E MOV W AT 09 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON EX-TC ELLA.
WTPS32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 12.2S 176.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 176.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 12.2S 174.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 175.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 371 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS LIMITED SHALLOW AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
DISPLACED EASTWARD FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN
ELONGATED LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 141116Z 89 GHZ GMI
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
DETERIORATING STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
141008Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING AN UNRAVELING LLCC WITH A SMALL
REGION OF 25 KNOT BARBS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. TC ELLA HAS
FULLY DISSIPATED AND THE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 9 FEET.//
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