El Nino '17
Posted: Tue 20/06/2017 08:56
I dunno
the models/forecasters have got it wrong a few times already, with El NIno mis firing twice now
currently we are just bumping along in neutral zone
BoM ENSO Outlook
20 June 2017
The ENSO Outlook has been downgraded from El Niño WATCH to INACTIVE. International climate models have continued to ease their outlooks for El Niño in recent weeks, with all models now suggesting the current ENSO-neutral state will persist for the remainder of the year.
Model outlooks made earlier in the year showed high chances of El Niño development in 2017, with the majority of models suggesting an event would develop in the southern winter and persist through spring. While some very strong warming occurred in the far eastern tropical Pacific Ocean during March-April –which can herald a basin-wide El Niño event– the atmosphere and ocean didn't start reinforcing each other, and this warmth has now dissipated.