General August Weather

[Razor]

Its a week out yet but most of the country will be hoping for a more settled August.

Early modelling looking a bit nasty, we'll see what transpires in the coming days

[Razor]

GFS pretty consistent in bringing significant weather across NZ to begin the new month. Will be interesting to see how it plays out

[NZstorm]

Looks like eastern North Auckland in the firing line for the worst of the rain with the front stalling for a short time overnight Wednesday.

Hoping for milder westerlies this month.

[Richard]

Some unstable cloud buildups about today, first sign of heating now the days are drawing out a little, might even get a shower from them.

[melja]

It's August now Richard lol

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

One or 2 interesting forms around Geraldine later this afternoon.

[Richard]

It's August now Richard lol

oh dear, where's the year going

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Sadly low cloud has come in from the east to SE.
Yes, August already, it will be thunderstorms and whatever on the way as we head towards summer and it will be Christmas before you know it ?

[mikestormchaser]

One or 2 interesting forms around Geraldine later this afternoon.

Yes there was some punchy clouds around about lunch time today. Was one of those days where you thought if it were spring something could happen but jyst a tad early yet. Bloody good to see though given time of year

[David]

I was surprised to see we had 14mm rain early morning, didn't think any decent rain would be here until late today.

[Talbotm]

Had an interesting read this morning. Met Service and Niwa both expecting a volatile August yet Tony Ts outlook has a fairly calm August. Will be another interesting Month.

[TonyT]

Had an interesting read this morning. Met Service and Niwa both expecting a volatile August yet Tony Ts outlook has a fairly calm August.

For Canterbury. Some other parts of the country could expect some good rainfalls I think.

Will be another interesting Month.

[Orion]

Some interesting cauliflowerish cloud-forms to east of Ashburton at the moment

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Some interesting cauliflowerish cloud-forms to east of Ashburton at the moment

Yes, I was in Ashburton today for a haircut, after a visit to the Chertsey Bookshop and noticed those clouds as well.
Quite showery there but nothing much back here in Geraldine.

[mikestormchaser]

Some interesting cauliflowerish cloud-forms to east of Ashburton at the moment

Yes, I was in Ashburton today for a haircut, after a visit to the Chertsey Bookshop and noticed those clouds as well.
Quite showery there but nothing much back here in Geraldine.

Yes once again like yesterday there's some punch in those clouds. And the atmosphere is a bit more vigorous already. Perhaps signs if a good thunderstorm season for a change

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Some weak but nice Cu clouds around today but nothing much to "wet your pants" over" ?

[NZstorm]

A subtropical moisture tongue mid next week onto northern NZ.

GFS surface dewpoint chart.

[SnwAddct]

A subtropical moisture tongue mid next week onto northern NZ.

Could pose some problems for Ruapehu who seem to be having a bit of a slower year then some as it is, with Whakapapa only sitting on a 1m base and Turoa (looking more normal) on a 1.5m base.

[Bradley]

Some very very different scenarios being forecast by GFS and EC for mid next week. GFS has been very consistent the last 4-5 model runs (attached) with a low pressure meeting a decent cold front (850hpa temps of -5C) which would almost certainly result in a warm advective scenario (central pressure of 985hpa for the low) and plenty of low level snow if it plays out that way. EC on the other hand has been very consistent with no cold front whatsoever and warm temperatures of around 16-17C for Canterbury for the same period. I'd like to believe GFS could be right for once but my own experience comparing the models is that GFS will come into line with EC over the next few days.

[Storm Struck]

Its actually looking very spring like in the coming weeks, which will I am sure be very welcome for many after the cold damp winter we have had so far.
Temperatures from tomorrow will be around 16C-19C in some eastern areas of both islands through until mid week and again the following weekend, wetter out west with rain and thunderstorm laden fronts.
The snow on the alps will make the NWer feel cooler but as the upper air is relativly warm and its on the higher pressure side most of the time, temperatures should remain comfortable for the time of year.
As with these NW systems the odd cold polar Southerly can sneak in as it drags cold air up from the ice caps, so i wouldnt only be surprised to see a belt or two of very low level snow but also a few thunder/hail early set ups for the east coast of both islands in the coming weeks.
Generally August isnt overly fruitful in terms of storms in the east, but if the temperatures combine right with daytime heating etc it can happen and has in the past just very rarely.

[Richard]

Really looking forward to the next 3-4 warmer days. Though this winter so far has seen a continuing warming trend since 2012 when we had a -15deg frost, all the years living here we always had at least a -9 deg every winter, but not since 2012 have we had a -9, last winter the coldest -6deg and so far this winter a -4.9deg

[NZstorm]

We have had just one frost in central Auckland this winter and that was last weekend. Rickys weather station got a record low temp. Not sure I can recall of frost like it in these parts before. I think the dryness of the airmass that night contributed to the unusually severe frost.

Looking like a biggish system mid week and Thursday will be a thunderstorm day for Auckland if model trends continue.

[einzack]

Winter is over?

[melja]

It would seem there's a shift to a more spring westerly type pattern.

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

[Richard]

Winter is over?

Yep, the main blob of winter is over, we are now in that transition time period between winter and spring, warm patches-cold patches. The garlic chives are growing, the Haskaps are coming into leaf and our ducks are now laying eggs. Thats the start of spring